Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Arkansas Elections Pollster to Lincoln: Fuhgeddaboudit
Posted by Max Brantley on Wed, Jun 9, 2010 at 1:37 PM
Polling outfit counsels Democratic groups not to waste a dime on Blanche Lincoln in the fall. No way, Jose, can she win.
Perhaps. I'd be interested in new polling on the issue to see if the gap remains as wide.
UPDATE: The redoubtable Jason Tolbert notes that Public Policy Polling, which supplied this anti-Lincoln screed, did at least $2,500 worth of work for Bill Halter during this campaign. Oh.
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Comments (13)
Showing 1-13 of 13
I don't watch all the polls but right now would be a good time to see how accurate they were.
Max, how about listing each suposedly legitmate poll from, oh say a week ago, and see which might have been close in the bigger races.
say
Halter/Lincoln
Elliott/Wills
Bledsoe/Womak
I am only suggesting that you do it instead of me because I suspect you already have the info.
like
dislike
Funny you should mention this, Max, because the Great Orange Satan is dumping his own pollster. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/9…
Citizen, among national firms only Research2000 was polling Halter/Lincoln; they consistently had Halter a few points ahead. Nate Silver's objective analysis says R2K was the second worst poller in the field the last cycle.
And I will note this. I struggled with it, but voted for Halter in the end. I am comfortable with Lincoln and hope she wins. But I am just astounded at the vitriol directed toward her victory, both here and at Kos. I frankly think folks believed they could direct the electorate and are having a tantrum because they came up a few points short. Graciousness is far more appropriate at this stage. Halter and Lincoln are both Dems and both believe in the same principles of government and policy; they just go at it in somewhat different ways.
thanks dodger,
I know enough from stat class that a poll can be slanted for any desired outcome.
But election results are a hard fact to measure foggy polls against. Funny after an election the pollsters seem to quickly fade to gray to hide any poor performances.
And I guess more vitriol is directed the morning after a close election because peoples hopes have been recently dashed.
Sort of like the Hillary supporters took months to get over her primary loss.
This advice from the pee pee poll is irresponsible drivel. By their logic, Lincoln should have dropped out of the primary.
These robopolls have reversed all of the progress made in polling since the Dewey-Truman debacle. They should close up shop.
Citizen 1, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com is considered by many to be the best independent interpreter of polling data.
PPP is one of yours. They are true blue Democrats. Surely the regulars on this blog will not allow this to happen. You guys are really clued in to the Arkansas voters so you know how they are going to vote. Just make some of the same prognostications that you made before the runoff. So I guess that all of these polls that show Blanche losing by 20 to 25 points are in error. Right, guys?
Max, why do you put this drivel out?! Is it just to keep the hamsters on this blog turning the wheel about how much they hate Blanche or how the election was stolen by crooked Democrats, Bill Clinton, etc? Out of all the election news today, with women making such a strong showing across the country, etc., you seemed obsessed with sticking it to Lincoln. Newsflash: The primary is over. As far as the PPP is concerned, it is clear the group of nutters that put out this smear piece are full of sour grapes. Maybe cause they suck at what they do. None of the experts were right, which is why there is so much wailing and gnashing of teeth on this blog in the last 24 hours, cause folks bought into the hype. I said a while back that Lincoln would win. You have a choice. If you want to have a real say, vote for Boozman or vote for Blanche. You can vote for the independant as well if you like, but we all know that it won't get you anywhere. As for me, I'll vote Democrat.
It has been apparent for years that polls are intended to influence voters as much as guage them. I always hang up on poll takers. If we don't play their game, maybe they will go away
bencodem,
If pollsters are such an important influence on voter opinion, why didn't Dewey defeat Truman?
Let's put this drivel behind us and start thinking about November. How many elections do you think we are going to lose? Do you agree with the predictions that the Republicans are going to win and win BIG? Norma, what do the prognosticators down under (Chenal Area) think? By the way, what is it under---the down under? Just wondering.
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