Thursday, August 19, 2010
Gloomy economic outlook for LR?
Posted by Max Brantley on Thu, Aug 19, 2010 at 4:37 PM
Somebody didn't get the memo that's been going around about how Little Rock is a shining star in the country's economic doldrums. Here's an article about a Moody's Economy.com report on 22 cities at risk for slipping back into recession. Three of them are in Arkansas, including Little Rock.
With chances of a national double-dip recession now estimated at about one in four, several metro areas will probably experience their own downturns in the first half of 2011," said economist Andrew Gledhill, who wrote the report.Gledhill identified the 22 markets listed below as having the biggest chance of a double-dip recession because their economies are linked to manufacturing or they've lost whatever industry it was that created the city to begin with.
The report found these faults in cities in Arkansas that made the list:
* Hot Springs, Ark. - resort city (high percentage of vacation homes) with a shortage of well-educated workers, below-average income and shortage of value-added industry.
* Pine Bluff, Ark. - Southern city with negative migration trends, below-average income and no clear economic driver
* Little Rock, Ark. - Southern city with no clear economic driver and a housing market showing moderate stress.
They could have added that Little Rock's own taxpayer-financed economic development arm, the Little Rock Regional Chamber of Commerce, is busy promoting the message that public schools in Little Rock are a waste of taxpayer money.
UPDATE: The Hot Springs Sentinel-Record reports that Moody's is revisiing its gloomy forecast for Hot Springs. Maybe some of those taxpayer-financed LR cheerleaders can get with Moody's to do the same for the capital city. From the Hot Springs report:
“We are updating our forecast for Hot Springs,” said Brent Campbell, an assistant economist [=at Moody]. “We have revised our report to show that Hot Springs is in recovery. We’re actually looking at a sharp spike upward in payroll and employment during the second quarter, so we actually have Hot Springs in recovery, rather than in recession.”
Campbell said figures show that Hot Springs’ tourism industry, as well as education and health care “are doing well, which is providing some stability.”“Also home prices are off their lows and have been positive for the last two quarters, so we’re seeing some pick up in economic activity. We had seen a downward trend, but then a sharp spike up during the second quarter,” Campbell said, adding that a report on Hot Springs’ improved status “will be revised shortly.”
Comments (12)
Showing 1-12 of 12
I suppose there are benefits living up here near the home of the USA's greatest out-sourcer. Wait. Should that be out-sorcerer?
Wal-Mart employees are scattered all over the NWA corridor. Chicken processing is becoming profitable again. The mortgage meltdown still has its epi-center in Springdale.
Levi-Strauss is long gone. Car wheel factory in Fayetteville is running on low.
Thank goodness for that broke-down Social Security system that keeps Bella Vista and Carroll County afloat.
Chickens are laying and the hospitals are full.
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I won’t be wasting a minute of my evening reading the article, but I do wonder how much time “economist” Andrew Gledhill has spent in Little Rock. Would like to study his credentials, and learn the number of his forecasts that actually achieved reality. Would especially like to know how it is that his view of Little Rock’s economy is so different from those at Business Week, Forbes, CNN Money, the Brookings Institution, U.S. News & World Report, USA TODAY, and the Wall Street Journal to name just a few who’ve looked us over and left town with their thumbs straight up.
Thats why people go to other cities. Too much thug culture in the LR Pub schools, and teachers who cant use the English language....and you have to hold back good students to be sure the "you know" other students can pass. Its called "excellence" Brantley. People will find it, but not in Little rock schools.
Boss, I knew you know better and that was why you ended the thread head with a question mark. I just posted on the outside chance that Gledhill might see it one of these days. And also for the benefit of the gullible who often believe anything and everything they read. You’ve worked hard today, I'm sure. Get off the blog, pour a drink, prop your feet up and enjoy an evening with the judge.
I agree with y'alls thoughts about LR's place on this list, but personally, their read of Hot Springs seems pretty damn accurate to me. Anyone from the Spa City care to comment?
I leave The Rock in March for my Australian tour (now at the Wynn Macao, picked up for six more weeks), right away Little Rock reports "no clear economic driver." I had no idea, the impact.
Wanna see a quick but sobering video on unemployment stats? Sure ya do.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/h…
The same time Huffington Post has Little Rock as one of Americas' most underrated cities.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/18/1…
"No clear economic driver"? Some economists consider a diversified economy to be a big plus. Guess this economist is reverse polarized.
One could make a good case the election of Tim "Vote Cager" Griffin to Congress would be a huge negative Little Rock won't easily overcome.
" ... not in Little rock schools." Posted by November
Gee, November did you learn how to uniquely capitalize 'Little Rock' in a private or charter school? Just wondering. Good edgykashun.
Mrs. Frankweiler,
Hot Springs is not the city of my primary residence, but I have had a home on the lake there for many years and spend much time in the community.
The Spa City appears to me to be a very busy town year ‘round with lots of traffic, considerable new construction, and new businesses constantly coming in.
When I see businesses open in Hot Springs (Sam’s Club, Bed Bath and Beyond, and the Purple Cow are recent examples among others), I know feasibility studies were made and that those businesses saw good reasons to invest in the community.
So, in a nutshell, my take on Hot Springs' future is a very positive one. Maybe somebody who lives in the Spa fulltime will step forward with a more enlightened view.
Until then or until proved wrong, I'll continue to believe that with Hot Springs — as with Little Rock — Gledhill (how do I say this nicely?) doesn’t know his pecker from a pencil.
Now Pine Bluff? Gledhill doesn’t have a thing to tell me that I don’t already know. As Danny Ford might say, it don’t take no scientific rocket to know that Pine Bluff saw its best day thirty years ago.
PS: Miss Norma, even if you weren't, babe, the rest have long been aware of your “impact” around heah.
I don't know November. I just took my kid to the University today and it seemed to me the Central Arkansas bunch was pretty sharp. Tell me what part of the state you are from as I would enjoy continuing the dialogue.
Little Rock and 90% of this state is a total $hi! hole. I only wish it was located on the coast so that it could eventually fall into the ocean and go the way Atlantis did. I will not get out of here fast enough.
And don't post anymore "you promised your leaving post" Believe me I'm getting out just as fast as I can and I will let you know when I leave so you can have a party with your Box wine.
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