Sunday, July 24, 2011
Arkansas Politics Black caucus unhappy with redistricting
Posted by Max Brantley on Sun, Jul 24, 2011 at 10:35 AM
Roby Brock at Talk Business notes unhappiness among black Democrats that redistricting maps from Gov. Mike Beebe and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel produce 11 majority black House districts where there are now 13. Beebe would note that two more districts are barely below the 50 percent level. But a bare majority is not enough for the Black Caucus. Sen. Jack Crumbly, a black senator from East Arkansas, fears a 51 percent black majority in his redrawn district isn't enough to guarantee his re-election. Already, there's talk of a lawsuit. (Some Republicans are also brooding about their treatment, but in terms of potential lawsuits, I don't think Republicans are yet considered a "protected class" in the U.S. legal system, though they hope to be before long.)
Thoughts:
* While incumbency is a consideration, I don't think the legal standard REQUIRES guaranteed re-election of an incumbent. See what Republicans have done in Texas and North Carolina to get an idea of what majority control mischief can produce.
* Will today's federal courts require super majorities in redistricting to preserve minority interests? I don't think affirmative action is much in favor these days.
* Population decreases in the Delta make it exceedingly difficult to maximize influence of a fairly diffuse black population.
* Black politicians could do VERY well in 48 percent minority districts if black voters participated at rates equal to other voters. With racially polarized voting, they'd need only about 10 percent of the white to win. Black voters have not, historically, participated at rates equal to other voters, not even in 2008, when Barack Obama led the ticket.
* I'm still interested to see voter performance in the minority districts created by the Democrats and Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin, who came up with more bare-majority black districts. I'd guess that the partisan measure of historic votes in those districts back to 2008 — using votes for president, U.S. Senate and governor as key guides — wouldn't show the Republican majority-minority districts as a walk in the park for black Democratic candidates.
Comments (5)
Showing 1-5 of 5
" I don't think Republicans are yet considered a "protected class" in the U.S. legal system, though they hope to be before long."
Well, they probably have 5 votes in the only place it counts, the SCOTUS.
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I think Senator Crumbly may have other problems in his re-election efforts than merely the racial make-up of his constituents.
Two trends make fewer black majority districts inevitable: 1. percent of blacks is slowly dropping. It was close to 19% in the 1980 census. Now closer to 15%. 2. That 15% is distributed over more counties. Blacks are slowly moving out of the delta to Washington, Benton counties and surrounds.
Sen. Jack Crumbly, a black senator from East Arkansas, fears a 51 percent black majority in his redrawn district isn't enough to guarantee his re-election.
This is the most racist thing I have ever heard of on this blog. Just pathetic. Well cry me a river senator. Looks like things such as issues and beliefs may play a roll in your reelection instead of color.
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