Find out more →

Get unlimited access. Become a digital member!

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Obama gets convention bounce; Clinton helped

Posted By on Sun, Sep 9, 2012 at 8:07 AM

REASON TO CELEBRATE: Convention, Clinton gave Obama poll bump.
  • REASON TO CELEBRATE: Convention, Clinton gave Obama poll bump.

Analyst Nate Silver writes that it's now clear Barack Obama is enjoying a bounce in the polls from the Democratic National Convention.

Mr. Obama had another strong day in the polls on Saturday, making further gains in each of four national tracking polls. The question now is not whether Mr. Obama will get a bounce in the polls, but how substantial it will be.

Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.

And for an answer to a question of local interest, my emphasis supplied:

That Mr. Obama has made these gains in polls that only partially reflect the Democratic convention suggests that his bounce could be more substantial once they fully do so. Mathematically, Mr. Obama has to have been running well ahead of Mr. Romney in the most recent interviews in these surveys to have made up for middling data earlier in the week.

In fact, it is possible to reverse-engineer an estimate of what Mr. Obama’s numbers look like in the postconvention part of the tracking surveys. Specifically, I will be looking to infer Mr. Obama’s numbers from interviews conducted after Bill Clinton’s speech on Wednesday night, which in my view was the pivotal moment of the convention.

Tags: , , ,

Speaking of...

Comments (30)

Showing 1-30 of 30

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-30 of 30

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Most Shared

  • The story of Jimmy Doyle's Country Club

    The last of the real honky tonks.
  • Blue Hog: Stacy Hurst undeserving of vote. Ditto.

    Blue Hog Report illustrates why Stacy Hurst isn't deserving of election to the state House of Representatives. And why her opponent's family got a deserved apology from the Little Rock school superintendent for a dirty trick done for her campaign.
  • Goose, remembered

    White Water Tavern owner a loveable rascal, friends say.
  • Susan Inman rips MIA Mark Martin

    Susan Inman, the Democratic candidate for secretary of state, opened her appearance on AETN's debate this morning by emphasizing incumbent Republican Mark Martin's absence from the debate and the new Blue Hog reporting on Facebook evidence that Martin spends dozens of work days at home in Prairie Grove, not at work in the Capitol.
  • Prepared for Ebola in Arkansas

    Health Department, hospitals scramble to prepare, though chance of the virus traveling to Arkansas is miniscule.

Most Viewed

  • Jason Rapert: The bully strikes again

    Sen. Jason Rapert talks a lot about integrity. He illustrates the reverse, by threatening payback to a Conway city employee for his support of Rapert's opponent.

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: Jason Rapert: The bully strikes again

    • I have worked with Wes Craiglow and want to reiterate that he is a fine…

    • on October 20, 2014
  • Re: Jason Rapert: The bully strikes again

    • Rapert will, undoubtedly, be the most confused man in Hell come Judgment Day

    • on October 19, 2014
  • Re: Jason Rapert: The bully strikes again

    • Senate District 35 map: http://www.arkansasredistricting.org/maps/PublishingImages/senate/35.jpg His property must be in that little part of Bigelow…

    • on October 19, 2014

Blogroll

 

© 2014 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation