Sunday, September 9, 2012

Obama gets convention bounce; Clinton helped

Posted By on Sun, Sep 9, 2012 at 8:07 AM

REASON TO CELEBRATE: Convention, Clinton gave Obama poll bump.
  • REASON TO CELEBRATE: Convention, Clinton gave Obama poll bump.

Analyst Nate Silver writes that it's now clear Barack Obama is enjoying a bounce in the polls from the Democratic National Convention.

Mr. Obama had another strong day in the polls on Saturday, making further gains in each of four national tracking polls. The question now is not whether Mr. Obama will get a bounce in the polls, but how substantial it will be.

Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.

And for an answer to a question of local interest, my emphasis supplied:

That Mr. Obama has made these gains in polls that only partially reflect the Democratic convention suggests that his bounce could be more substantial once they fully do so. Mathematically, Mr. Obama has to have been running well ahead of Mr. Romney in the most recent interviews in these surveys to have made up for middling data earlier in the week.

In fact, it is possible to reverse-engineer an estimate of what Mr. Obama’s numbers look like in the postconvention part of the tracking surveys. Specifically, I will be looking to infer Mr. Obama’s numbers from interviews conducted after Bill Clinton’s speech on Wednesday night, which in my view was the pivotal moment of the convention.

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