Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Beebe v. GOP — advantage to Republicans

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 9:12 AM

WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
  • WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
The latest Talk Business-Hendrix College poll tested 2,200 Arkansas voters on Gov. Mike Beebe's popularity and generic partisan preferences in voting.

The results illustrate why Republican consultants are so smugly confident about their chances in state legislative races.

Mike Beebe, who's leading the battle for Democrats, IS very popular, a 64-19 favorable/unfavorable rating.

But ask voters whether they'd vote Democrat or Republican for state legislative races in November and the result statewide was 49-36 Republican, with the rest undecided.

Broken down by congressional districts, Republicans led in preference in all but the 2nd District (another reminder that Reactionary Rovite Republican Rep. Tim Griffin is out of step with his constituents, repeatedly.)

It is worth saying that legislative elections are not necessarily rote choices for Ds and Rs, or at least that has not been the historic pattern, except in the 3rd District. The individual candidates matter — their style, their message, their money, their support from outside groups. That last factor, thanks to Koch money, trends heavily Republican this year. It is also at least a little misleading to look at broad preferences in the state, or even a congressional district, as determinative of the outcomes in much smaller legislative districts, which are drawn by the controlling party (Democratic) to emphasize demographic and historic election patterns. Take Pulaski County. In some precincts, a Republican couldn't be elected dogcatcher. Out in Chenal Valley, a Democrat is typically just about as well received. Average them together and you get a Democratic preference, though narrow, in the county.

Don't get me wrong. Would I rather have Republican generic numbers? Of course. Particularly with the Kochs bankrolling them in a complementary campaign that has now added trashing of Mike Beebe to the roster of themes. For obvious reasons. See poll. (I presume Republicans will want to disavow this poll since it's the work of that turrible Democratic liberal Jay Barth.)

Tags: , , , , , ,


Speaking of...

Comments (3)

Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • Fort Smith mosque vandalized

    Fort Smith's Al Salam mosque was vandalized Thursday morning.
    • Oct 20, 2016
  • The open line and headlines

    Here's the Thursday open line and mid-afternoon news roundup.
    • Oct 20, 2016
  • Kochs spread money around Arkansas

    The Koch Industries PAC spread a lot of money around in September, including significant sums in state legislative races around the country. All politics is local when you have a big polluting industry to look after.
    • Oct 20, 2016
  • More »

Readers also liked…

  • Democratic Party calls for Justin Harris resignation

    The Arkansas Democratic Party today issued a statement saying Republican Rep. Justin Harris should resign.
    • Mar 6, 2015
  • Foster family disputes key statements from Justin Harris

    Craig and Cheryl Hart were the foster parents of the two sisters who were adopted by Rep. Justin Harris and his wife Marsha and later "rehomed." The Harts say that the adoption was allowed to proceed over the objections of the foster parents and local DHS staff due to pressure exerted by Cecile Blucker, head of the Division of Children and Family Services, on behalf of Justin Harris.
    • Mar 7, 2015
  • University of Arkansas education reformers receive grand prize for 'bunkum' in charter school reports

    The National Education Policy Center, a Colorado-based institution that is frequently opposed to the so-called "reform" movement embodied by the Walton-financed Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas, has issued its 2014 Bunkum Awards, which include a grand prize to the University of Arkansas for what it believes to be flawed research.
    • Mar 3, 2015

Most Shared

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: Fort Smith mosque vandalized

    • Later today, er, yesterday a report came in that the spray paint vandals also got…

    • on October 21, 2016
  • Re: Fort Smith mosque vandalized

    • Your Norma will never forget the day in 2002 when her doorbell (then in Brentwood)…

    • on October 21, 2016
  • Re: The open line and headlines

    • Mika Brzezinski adopts a rescue dog, found abandoned and chained to a tree in Arkansas…

    • on October 21, 2016



© 2016 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation