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Thursday, October 18, 2012

Analyst warns: Be suspicious of poll 'bounce'

Posted By on Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 5:53 AM

click to enlarge 1350558037-silverforecast.jpg

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight gives a good analysis of swings in poll numbers, post-debate bounce and the like.

It seems safe, if obvious, to conclude that the electorate is almost evenly split. Also: A popular vote win powered by overwhelming Obama hatred in Dixie doesn't necessarily mean an electoral vote win.

silverforecast.JPG

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