Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight gives a good analysis of swings in poll numbers, post-debate bounce and the like.
It seems safe, if obvious, to conclude that the electorate is almost evenly split. Also: A popular vote win powered by overwhelming Obama hatred in Dixie doesn't necessarily mean an electoral vote win.
Thou Doest Protest Much,V-Essa!!
...thou dost protest much!
Whew! Do you feel better IT?