Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Internal poll offers glimmer of hope for Herb Rule in 2nd District

Posted By on Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 7:44 PM

POLL ENCOURAGING: Is Herb Rule within striking distance of Tim Griffin?
  • POLL ENCOURAGING: Is Herb Rule within striking distance of Tim Griffin?

Yes, it's a campaign poll. Yes, it seems hard to believe given all that's gone before and going currently. But ....

The respected Little Rock polling firm, Opinion Research Associates, headed by Ernie and Zoe Oakleaf, has done a poll for Herb Rule's campaign for 2nd District Congress. Rule has told supporters that the numbers came back 45 Rule, 47 Republican Tim Griffin and 8 undecided. I have confirmed that number, but I have no indication of the questions, the poll sample size and makeup (the Oakleafs do telephone interviews, not robopolling) and other important information. However: A poll designed to test messages, and thus push respondents to Rule, wouldn't be of much use this late in the game for a candidate with little money to advertise a message.

Griffin has frequently polled beneath 50 percent. He replaced a popular Congressman Vic Snyder in a district dominated by a county, Pulaski, that votes counter to just about every policy position Griffin has espoused. To gain office, he beat a black liberal Democratic woman, Joyce Elliott, in a year when anti-Obama sentiment ran high. Griffin had schemed against a popular Republican locally, Bud Cummins, to remove him from a US attorney job so Griffin could grab it. He's a Karl Rove tool. He's not a charismatic candidate. He seems to think the campaign is mostly about a pipeline to ship Canadian oil to China, no matter the damage to the U.S. environment. If Rule's quixotic and mostly invisible shoeleather campaign could give Vote Cager Griffin, with all his bags of special interest loot, a run, it would be, well, nice. If unbelievable.

I'm trying to get a little more info on the poll.

At this point, about all you can do is vote.

UPDATE: The campaign cleared Ernie Oakleaf to talk to me about the poll. It was simple horse race poll done Oct. 24-25. It asked a preference between Rule and Griffin from a random sample of 244 Second District voters — likely voters based on their vote frequency on a list of registered voters. The sample is admittedly small and it was admittedly commissioned by the campaign. The margin of error on the poll is 6.4 percent. But Oakleaf notes that the overall sample is bigger than subsamples of larger polls that talk about, for example, splits on male and female voters and black and white voters. You might conclude from these results that voters in the 2nd District, which still is viewed as a Democratic district and which voted uniformly for statewide Democratic candidates in 2010, might be coming home to the Democratic candidate. Self-identified Democrats favored Rule 10-1, Oakleaf said. Black voters favored Rule 30-1. Pulaski voters favored Rule 55-39.

I think it's safe to say the poll came back even better than Rule partisans hoped. With the margin of error, who knows if it turns out that way or worse or, if we can dream, better? Also, the poll didn't ask about the Green and Libertarian candidates, but some of the respondents volunteered them, thus the 8 percent was both undecided and "other," Oakleaf said.

I'll only say this to Republicans who tend to dismiss all polls they don't like as flawed: Ask Gvernor Tommy Robinson or Senator Tim Hutchinson about the Oakleafs' polling work, to name a couple who dismissed results by Opinion Research they didn't like. They haven't stayed in business all these years by making stuff up.

UPDATE: Here's a summary Oakleaf provided to the campaign. With time and money — big ifs — there would certainly be room to improve the findings on a gender gap. Griffin is totally opposed to women's medical autonomy.

Tags: , , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Speaking of...

Comments (22)

Showing 1-22 of 22

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-22 of 22

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • Executionpalooza

    Appearances count. I was struck by a single sentence over the weekend in a full page of coverage in The New York Times devoted to the killing spree in Arkansas, beginning with a front-page account of the recent flurry of legal filings on pending executions and continuing inside with an interview with Damien Echols, the former death row inmate.
    • Apr 20, 2017
  • Death Row inmates argue to keep stay of execution in place; urge 8th Circuit not to 'rush' analysis

    Early this morning, attorneys for nine Death Row inmates, filed an argument with the 8th United States Court of Appeals contesting the state's effort to override Judge Kristine Baker's order Saturday that halted executions scheduled this month.
    • Apr 17, 2017
  • Federal judge denies execution stay for Don Davis but larger stay continues

    Don Davis, who's been moved to the killing facility of the state prison for killing tonight at 7 p.m. if a stay of execution is lifted in another federal suit, sought a stay in another federal court Sunday, but the request was denied.
    • Apr 17, 2017
  • More »

Readers also liked…

  • State Police issues statement on Jason Rapert 'threats'

    The State Police have issued a minor clarification in what appears to be an effort to soothe an enraged Sen. Jason Rapert, exposed here as overly excited about both a Conway parking lot question from a constituent as well as some inflammatory Internet rhetoric that he's interpreted as a dire threat on his life. State cops took his reports seriously, they say. But in the end, they found nothing actionable.
    • Sep 15, 2015
  • UPDATE: Hutchinson moves to cover himself on cut to War Memorial Stadium

    Gov. Asa Hutchinson apparently felt the burn from KARK's exclusive Tuesday night on his plans to cut state support of War Memorial Stadium in half beginning July 1, 2018. He has a so-far secret plan to make the stadium self-sustaining. We bet that doesn't include state support.
    • Oct 20, 2016
  • Polling reported in Democratic Senate primary; includes Bill Halter

    A friend reports an interesting automated poll Thursday night, relating to one announced and perhaps another potential Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.
    • Nov 7, 2015

Most Shared

  • Judge Griffen writes about morality, Christian values and executions

    Pulaski County Circuit Judge Wendell Griffen, who blogs at Justice is a verb!, sends along a new post this morning.
  • The Ledell Lee execution thread

    Arkansas Times contributor Jacob Rosenberg is at the Cummins Unit in Grady filing dispatches tonight in advance of the expected execution of Ledell Lee, who was sentenced to death for the Feb. 9, 1993, murder of Debra Reese, 26, who was beaten to death in the bedroom of her home in Jacksonville.

Visit Arkansas

Haralson, Smith named to Arkansas Tourism Hall of Fame

Haralson, Smith named to Arkansas Tourism Hall of Fame

Chuck Haralson and Ken Smith were inducted into the Arkansas Tourism Hall of Fame during the 43rd annual Governor’s Conference on Tourism

Most Viewed

  • The Jack Jones, Marcel Williams execution thread

    The Arkansas Department of Correction is planning for the first double execution in the U.S. in 16 years tonight. Jack Jones, 52,  and Marcell Williams, 46, are scheduled to die by lethal injection. They would be the second and third prisoners put to death as part of a hurried schedule Governor Hutchinson set in advance of the state's supply of one of the three drugs used in the execution protocol expiring on April 30.
  • Lee's lawyer writes about executed man's last hours

    Lee Short, the lawyer for Ledell Lee, the man Arkansas put to death just before midnight last night, posted on Facebook the following letter of thanks for personal support and a bit about Lee's last hours, distributing his possessions and talking to family.
  • Legislature set to tackle changes to "Arkansas Works" Medicaid expansion in special session

    The governor is expected to call the special session to get legislative approval of his proposed alterations to the private option (now known as "Arkansas Works"). Here's what to look for.
  • Supreme Court hears arguments in case that led to stays for two Arkansas death row inmates

    The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in an appeal yesterday that asks the court to rule that indigent criminal defendants are entitled to an independent expert witness. The case, McWilliams v. Dunn, goes back to the 1984 capital murder conviction of James McWilliams, who raped and murdered a woman in Tuscaloosa, Ala., during a robbery. But the high court's decision will also directly affect the fates of Don Davis and Bruce Ward, Arkansas death row prisoners who were slated to die this month, but given a reprieve by the Arkansas Supreme Court, which issued a stay in each execution, pending the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in McWilliams in June.

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

Slideshows

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation