Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Internal poll offers glimmer of hope for Herb Rule in 2nd District

Posted By on Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 7:44 PM

POLL ENCOURAGING: Is Herb Rule within striking distance of Tim Griffin?
  • POLL ENCOURAGING: Is Herb Rule within striking distance of Tim Griffin?

Yes, it's a campaign poll. Yes, it seems hard to believe given all that's gone before and going currently. But ....

The respected Little Rock polling firm, Opinion Research Associates, headed by Ernie and Zoe Oakleaf, has done a poll for Herb Rule's campaign for 2nd District Congress. Rule has told supporters that the numbers came back 45 Rule, 47 Republican Tim Griffin and 8 undecided. I have confirmed that number, but I have no indication of the questions, the poll sample size and makeup (the Oakleafs do telephone interviews, not robopolling) and other important information. However: A poll designed to test messages, and thus push respondents to Rule, wouldn't be of much use this late in the game for a candidate with little money to advertise a message.

Griffin has frequently polled beneath 50 percent. He replaced a popular Congressman Vic Snyder in a district dominated by a county, Pulaski, that votes counter to just about every policy position Griffin has espoused. To gain office, he beat a black liberal Democratic woman, Joyce Elliott, in a year when anti-Obama sentiment ran high. Griffin had schemed against a popular Republican locally, Bud Cummins, to remove him from a US attorney job so Griffin could grab it. He's a Karl Rove tool. He's not a charismatic candidate. He seems to think the campaign is mostly about a pipeline to ship Canadian oil to China, no matter the damage to the U.S. environment. If Rule's quixotic and mostly invisible shoeleather campaign could give Vote Cager Griffin, with all his bags of special interest loot, a run, it would be, well, nice. If unbelievable.

I'm trying to get a little more info on the poll.

At this point, about all you can do is vote.

UPDATE: The campaign cleared Ernie Oakleaf to talk to me about the poll. It was simple horse race poll done Oct. 24-25. It asked a preference between Rule and Griffin from a random sample of 244 Second District voters — likely voters based on their vote frequency on a list of registered voters. The sample is admittedly small and it was admittedly commissioned by the campaign. The margin of error on the poll is 6.4 percent. But Oakleaf notes that the overall sample is bigger than subsamples of larger polls that talk about, for example, splits on male and female voters and black and white voters. You might conclude from these results that voters in the 2nd District, which still is viewed as a Democratic district and which voted uniformly for statewide Democratic candidates in 2010, might be coming home to the Democratic candidate. Self-identified Democrats favored Rule 10-1, Oakleaf said. Black voters favored Rule 30-1. Pulaski voters favored Rule 55-39.

I think it's safe to say the poll came back even better than Rule partisans hoped. With the margin of error, who knows if it turns out that way or worse or, if we can dream, better? Also, the poll didn't ask about the Green and Libertarian candidates, but some of the respondents volunteered them, thus the 8 percent was both undecided and "other," Oakleaf said.

I'll only say this to Republicans who tend to dismiss all polls they don't like as flawed: Ask Gvernor Tommy Robinson or Senator Tim Hutchinson about the Oakleafs' polling work, to name a couple who dismissed results by Opinion Research they didn't like. They haven't stayed in business all these years by making stuff up.

UPDATE: Here's a summary Oakleaf provided to the campaign. With time and money — big ifs — there would certainly be room to improve the findings on a gender gap. Griffin is totally opposed to women's medical autonomy.

Tags: , , , ,

Favorite

Speaking of...

Comments (22)

Showing 1-22 of 22

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-22 of 22

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Readers also liked…

  • It's official: Mike Huckabee has lost his mind

    Mike Huckabee's plan for winning the Republican presidential nomination is to convince primary voters there's a holy war underway against Christians.
    • Apr 24, 2015
  • More on how highways were used to wipe out "blight" of non-white neighborhoods

    Vox, a news website that concerns itself with energy and other issues, has a fine piece, including before and after images, on the history of the U.S. interstate system and why roads were built through the middle of cities (unless people of influence stopped them — see Manhattan, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.)
    • Mar 22, 2016
  • Mike Huckabee, meet James Madison

    Not that it will do much good, but Times columnist Ernest Dumas this week provides some useful Founding Father history, plus a little bit of Bible, for how wrong-headed Mike Huckabee, Asa Hutchinson, the Republican legislature and others are in using government to enforce their religious views.
    • May 26, 2015

Most Shared

  • World leaders set to meet in Little Rock on resource access and sustainable development

    Next week a series of meetings on the use of technology to tackle global problems will be held in Little Rock by Club de Madrid — a coalition of more than 100 former democratic former presidents and prime ministers from around the world — and the P80 Group, a coalition of large public pension and sovereign wealth funds founded by Prince Charles to combat climate change. The conference will discuss deploying existing technologies to increase access to food, water, energy, clean environment, and medical care.
  • Tomb to table: a Christmas feast offered by the residents of Mount Holly and other folk

    Plus, recipes from the Times staff.
  • Fake news

    So fed up was young Edgar Welch of Salisbury, N.C., that Hillary Clinton was getting away with running a child-sex ring that he grabbed a couple of guns last Sunday, drove 360 miles to the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria in Washington, D.C., where Clinton was supposed to be holding the kids as sex slaves, and fired his AR-15 into the floor to clear the joint of pizza cravers and conduct his own investigation of the pedophilia syndicate of the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state.
  • Reality TV prez

    There is almost nothing real about "reality TV." All but the dullest viewers understand that the dramatic twists and turns on shows like "The Bachelor" or "Celebrity Apprentice" are scripted in advance. More or less like professional wrestling, Donald Trump's previous claim to fame.
  • Arkansas archeologist does his job, is asked to leave

    Amid Department of Arkansas Heritage project.

Visit Arkansas

View Trumpeter Swans in Heber Springs

View Trumpeter Swans in Heber Springs

Magness Lake, in Heber Springs, is a magnet for swans

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

 

© 2016 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation