Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Hillary's the one in 2016 — more polling coming today

Posted By on Wed, Feb 6, 2013 at 6:11 AM

A LIFE IN FULL: First lady (state and U.S.), senator, secretary of state. Is president next?
  • A LIFE IN FULL: First lady (state and U.S.), senator, secretary of state. Is president next?

A former campaigner for George H.W. Bush writes in the Daily Beast that Hillary Rodham Clinton is a particularly dangerous opponent for Republicans in 2016, as evidenced by her popularity among voters in Texas and Kentucky over Republican candidates.

Although Obama lost among non-college-graduate whites by 19 points nationwide, his deficit among that same demographic in the Great Lakes was only in the single digits. Significantly, Ohio and Pennsylvania held for Obama in 2012, two of the states which Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries.

And that is where the GOP's problem begins. In addition to benefiting from Obama's ascendant coalition of younger voters, minorities, and women, Hillary connects with the white working class and would likely improve upon Obama's showing among this bloc. Instead of the forced optics of Obama sitting down to a beer with the prof and the cop, voters would likely be treated to moments of a relaxed Hillary knocking back a boilermaker in Youngstown or Dearborn.

Clinton could make a serious play in the South and build upon existing margins in the Midwest. North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas would be in play. Indeed, Hillary could reclaim the newest bloc of swing voters: America's wealthy.

LOCAL ANGLE: Further information is to be released at noon today at the Clinton School on a UA poll that delved into presidential politics. I think it will underscore the Daily Beast article with numbers favorable to Hillary, including in the South.

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