Monday, March 24, 2014

Democratic campaign re-spins Nate Silver predictions

Posted By on Mon, Mar 24, 2014 at 6:53 AM

click to enlarge ALL IS NOT LOST: A strong incumbent and extreme opponent offer hope for Democrats such as Mark Pryor, the Democratic Party says.
  • ALL IS NOT LOST: A strong incumbent and extreme opponent offer hope for Democrats such as Mark Pryor, the Democratic Party says.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee offers a comeback to analyst Nate Silver's grim prediction for the party's chances of retaining a Senate majority. That analysis included a 70 percent probability of the defeat of U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor.

The DSCC remarks:

Nate Silver and the staff at FiveThirtyEight are doing groundbreaking work, but, as they have noted, they have to base their forecasts on a scarce supply of public polls. In some cases more than half of these polls come from GOP polling outfits. This was one reason why FiveThirtyEight forecasts in North Dakota and Montana were so far off in 2012. In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecasted a 61% likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority. Three months later Democrats went on to win 55 seats.

In 2012, Democratic senate candidates won in nearly half of the states where Mitt Romney beat President Obama (five of 12: North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, & West Virginia), proving that senate races are not merely a referendum on the President or on any single issue but a choice between the two candidates on the ballot. Nate Silver predicted that Heidi Heitkamp had only an 8% chance of victory and Jon Tester had just a 34% chance. In 2010, he predicted that Majority Leader Reid had just a 16% chance and Michael Bennet had only a 34% chance in Colorado. All four are senators today because they were superior candidates running superior campaign organizations who made their elections a choice between the two candidates on the ballot. Only three Democratic incumbent senators have lost reelection in the last ten years, and our incumbents are once again prepared and ready

We don't minimize the challenges ahead. Rather, we view the latest projection as a reminder that we have a challenging map and important work still to do in order to preserve our majority.

No mention specifically of the Arkansas race except for the generic reference to "strong incumbents." And I think you can see Pryor's Republican opponent, Strange Tom Cotton, in this reference:

Even worse for Republicans, they have tried to tame the tea party by nominating a slew of candidates that are too ideological for a general electorate (e.g. Personhood, pay equity, eliminating min wage, privatizing Social Security and Medicare)

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