Friday, September 5, 2014

CNN poll puts Cotton up 2 over Pryor, statistical dead heat

Posted By on Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 8:11 AM

click to enlarge screen_shot_2014-09-05_at_8.12.25_am.png
New polling in the race for U.S. Senate from CNN:

Republican Tom Cotton leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 49-47, an edge "well within the survey's 4.5% margin of error, essentially making this race, which will help determine who controls the Senate, a dead heat two months before Election Day."

Pryor leads among women, but this poll finds an 11-point lead for Cotton among white women. I find that hard to credit. It could explain Adrienne Elrod's piece I posted earlier today.

The bad news is that he seems to have opened up a new way to lose to Republicans by losing badly with white women," said a Democratic operative who knows Pryor but is not working on his race. "The good news is that is a segment of the electorate that tends to break Democratic, and he has time to close that gap. If he does, he wins."

Poor people favor Pryor heavily, thus the turnout push in economically depressed areas.

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