Thursday, August 4, 2016

Hillary Clinton surging in polls over Donald Trump

Posted By on Thu, Aug 4, 2016 at 10:34 AM

We mentioned yesterday that Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged from the conventions with a healthy lead. A new set of polls released this morning brings more good news for Clinton and rekindles the possibility of a blowout win. Via Vox, here's a rundown of some of the big ones: 

A new national Fox News poll shows Clinton beating Trump by 10 percentage points, 49 percent to 39 percent — Clinton’s strongest post-convention national performance yet.

In Pennsylvania, a state most observers believe is a must-win for Trump considering how the electoral math is shaping up, Franklin & Marshall has a new poll showing him trailing Clinton by 11 points — 49 percent to 38 percent.

In New Hampshire, another swing state that was believed to be relatively close, WBUR has a new poll giving Clinton a massive 15 point lead over Trump (47 percent to 32 percent).

And in Michigan — traditionally a Democratic state but one the Trump campaign had fantasized about winning as part of a "Rust Belt" strategy — Trump is down at a dismal 32 percent compared to Clinton’s 41 percent, according to Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
And there may be emerging evidence that Trump is dragging down Republican candidates in Senate races: 

Worse yet for Republicans, Trump’s dreadful performance also looks to be imperiling their hopes to keep the Senate.

The new New Hampshire poll shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) down by 10 points to her challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) — a dreadful result for an incumbent. And in Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey (R), who’s believed by political professionals to be a much stronger candidate than his challenger Katie McGinty (D) — is losing by 1 point as well.
Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight has more on this, taking a look at whether Trump's candidacy could lead to Democrats re-taking their majority. He notes Trump's unpopularity in ten key Senate battlegrounds: 

click to enlarge trump_senate_battleground.png

Meanwhile, Greg Sargent at the Washington Post asks, "A barrage of new state and national polls suggesting that Donald Trump may be cratering give rise to a question: Does Trump’s unique awfulness mean that Hillary Clinton can make meaningful inroads among Republican voters?"

GOP strategist Liam Donovan speculates that if Trump's polling keeps tanking, we may start to see Republicans who have been too chicken to fully denounce Trump finally change their tune. 

The fivethirtyeight forecasting model now gives Clinton a 78 percent chance of winning the White House. 

In other news from Trump's terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad week, Politico today reports on evidence that Melania Trump, prior to her marriage to Trump, may have worked in the U.S. on a tourist visa (which would have made her, um, an illegal immigrant). 

And here is Trump, always informed and engaged, showing off his incredibly deep knowledge of the major issues facing our nation in response to a question on Zika:

Tags: , , , ,


Speaking of...

Comments (14)

Showing 1-14 of 14

Add a comment

Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-14 of 14

Add a comment

More by David Ramsey

Readers also liked…

  • The plight of the refugees: Dark episodes in Arkansas

    Ernest Dumas reaches into history, some personal, for moments in Arkansas's view of refugees. It was brought to mind by the current crisis in Europe and the political divisions over whether the U.S. should respond to the needs of the displaced.
    • Sep 22, 2015
  • 'Million-Dollar Thursday': A visit to Sherwood's hot check court

    We take a visit to the weekly hot check court in Sherwood District Court, the subject of a recent civil rights lawsuit filed by ACLU Arkansas and others, who say the system there results in a modern-day debtor's prison
    • Aug 25, 2016
  • Federal judge wants John Goodson to explain class action maneuvering

    A show-cause order filed Monday by federal Judge P.K. Holmes of Fort Smith indicates class action attorney John Goodson has some explaining to do about the move of a class action complaint against an insurance company from federal to state court with an instant pre-packaged settlement that has been criticized as a windfall for Goodson.
    • Dec 22, 2015

Most Shared

Visit Arkansas

Forest bathing is the Next Big Thing

Forest bathing is the Next Big Thing

Arkansas is the perfect place to try out this new health trend. Read all about the what, why, where and how here.

Most Viewed

  • Governor signs concealed carry bill, but amendment coming

    UPDATE: Gov. Asa Hutchinson signed the expanded concealed carry legislation, but some additional legislation is promised, at a minimum to exempt UAMS and the State Hospital from the expanded list of places where concealed weapons are allowed for those with a new permit that requires an additional day of training.

Most Recent Comments



© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation