Thursday, August 4, 2016

Hillary Clinton surging in polls over Donald Trump

Posted By on Thu, Aug 4, 2016 at 10:34 AM

We mentioned yesterday that Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged from the conventions with a healthy lead. A new set of polls released this morning brings more good news for Clinton and rekindles the possibility of a blowout win. Via Vox, here's a rundown of some of the big ones: 

A new national Fox News poll shows Clinton beating Trump by 10 percentage points, 49 percent to 39 percent — Clinton’s strongest post-convention national performance yet.

In Pennsylvania, a state most observers believe is a must-win for Trump considering how the electoral math is shaping up, Franklin & Marshall has a new poll showing him trailing Clinton by 11 points — 49 percent to 38 percent.

In New Hampshire, another swing state that was believed to be relatively close, WBUR has a new poll giving Clinton a massive 15 point lead over Trump (47 percent to 32 percent).

And in Michigan — traditionally a Democratic state but one the Trump campaign had fantasized about winning as part of a "Rust Belt" strategy — Trump is down at a dismal 32 percent compared to Clinton’s 41 percent, according to Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
And there may be emerging evidence that Trump is dragging down Republican candidates in Senate races: 

Worse yet for Republicans, Trump’s dreadful performance also looks to be imperiling their hopes to keep the Senate.

The new New Hampshire poll shows Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) down by 10 points to her challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) — a dreadful result for an incumbent. And in Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey (R), who’s believed by political professionals to be a much stronger candidate than his challenger Katie McGinty (D) — is losing by 1 point as well.
Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight has more on this, taking a look at whether Trump's candidacy could lead to Democrats re-taking their majority. He notes Trump's unpopularity in ten key Senate battlegrounds: 

click to enlarge trump_senate_battleground.png

Meanwhile, Greg Sargent at the Washington Post asks, "A barrage of new state and national polls suggesting that Donald Trump may be cratering give rise to a question: Does Trump’s unique awfulness mean that Hillary Clinton can make meaningful inroads among Republican voters?"

GOP strategist Liam Donovan speculates that if Trump's polling keeps tanking, we may start to see Republicans who have been too chicken to fully denounce Trump finally change their tune. 

The fivethirtyeight forecasting model now gives Clinton a 78 percent chance of winning the White House. 

In other news from Trump's terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad week, Politico today reports on evidence that Melania Trump, prior to her marriage to Trump, may have worked in the U.S. on a tourist visa (which would have made her, um, an illegal immigrant). 

And here is Trump, always informed and engaged, showing off his incredibly deep knowledge of the major issues facing our nation in response to a question on Zika:

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