Republican Sen. Bryan King told Roby Brock he'll seek approval Thursday of his bill to suppress the vote of elderly, minority and other Democratic friendly constituencies in Arkansas.

He'll call it a voter ID bill. It is nothing less than an attack on voter rights.

Studies everywhere show voter ID laws have the effect desired by Republican sponsors — depression in turnout by voters who trend Democratic. Many people don't have IDs. Many people don't have the wherewithall to get them. The ability to vote under challenge is meaningless because of the hoops that must be cleared to get a challenged ballot counted. There is virtually no evidence of in-person voter fraud in Arkansas or the rest of the country. Absentee misdeeds, which have indeed occurred, are not affected by voter ID bills.

Given the majority Republican makeup of the legislature, the bill will pass. They've fallen to court challenges in other states. The improper aims are no different here. They've also had the effect in other states of stirring up those targeted for suppression and renewing their vigor to participate. See the presidential election of 2012. Arkansas is heading with the rest of the South to be a country for old angry white men. Short term, it's a great strategy for GOP dominance. Long-term, the demographers say it's not so hot.

The Arkansas Citizens First Congress has begun a welcome counterpoint to the Republican drive for Voter ID legislation aimed at depressing the turnout of segments of the population that generally favor Democratic candidate.

There's no evidence of any meaningful ID fraud at the polls. (It's not that people are so honest. It's just that, as a practical matter, impersonation is a highly impractical way of influencing elections. Absentee ballot schemes — something Voter ID wouldn't affect — are another matter.)

Citizens First has begun circulating a petition for something better. Its pitch to legislators:

Dear Senators and Representatives:

I ask you to support the Citizens First Congress’ Campaign to ensure fair elections across Arkansas!

Arkansas needs increased monitoring of elections and more training for poll workers. We do not need a Voter ID bill that could disenfranchise thousands of legitimate voters. Arkansas only has two election monitors for the entire state, and only requires training for one poll worker per polling site.

Please join us in our efforts to advance this critical issue!

Citizens First is a grassroots organizing group. They've worked across a range of issues, but wingers would call them liberal because they support civil rights, fair immigration rules, gas drilling accountability, the Equal Rights Amendment, clean water and other radical stuff like that.

• Facebook
• IN THE LEAD: Mayoral candidate Tracy Steele

Rep. Tracy Steele surprised by leading the ticket in the race for North Little Rock mayor, to succeed the retiring Pat Hays.

Steele finished with 11,524 votes, or 48.26 percent. Joe Smith, Hays' chief of staff and the current city establishment's pick for the job, finished with 9,820 or 41.13 percent of the vote. Mark Clinton, with 1,791 or 7.53 percent, and John Parker, with 741, or 3.1 percent, trailed.

Steele is close enough to 50 percent that he would need only a small percentage of the other candidates' votes to win. But Smith has been better financed to date and there won't be a lot on the ballot post-Thanksgiving — notably lacking a presidential race — to encourage turnout similar to Tuesday's.

Smith's campaign said:

It's not a surprising result. Tracy Steele is a true career politician - he's been on the ballot countless times so it makes sense that he had much higher name ID. Joe sits in a really good spot now going into this runoff and definitely has the momentum. He is energized, as is our team. We are ready to go on this sprint.

I've sought a comment from Tracy Steele, but haven't heard back. But he wrote on Facebook:

What an exciting election night!

I am extremely grateful for everything you've done on my behalf. Thank You! The next three weeks are crucial and I need you more than I ever have before.

I look forward to the next three weeks before the run-off election. It is time to look to our future and move this great city forward by focusing on our public servants, our children and school district and our workers and business community.

If we stand together, we can accomplish great things. Your support is what keeps me going.

Steele touched obliquely on a point in his favor — the North Little Rock School District. Its supporters carried out an impressive piece of community organizing in winning broad and deep community support for a huge tax increase to rebuild the entire school district. The Hays administration was slow to get on the school tax bandwagon. This rankled school supporters, as did the mayor's earlier push to take school tax money for downtown development. Some of these school supporters jumped to the Steele campaign. He was an early and vigorous supporter of the school tax. He's a black candidate in a city where racially polarized voting occurs and where whites still constitute the voting majority. But there was clear evidence yesterday of biracial support for Steele, including 25 to 30 percent totals in some higher income predominantly white neighborhoods. A good sign for him.

The three weeks leading to the runoff Nov. 27 will increase calls for examination of Steele's record as both a legislator and an administrator of a state agency, the Martin Luther King Commission. A Democrat-Gazette editorial endorsing Steele, in part on his administrative experience, was, simply, laughable. His tenure at the King Commission was perpetually dogged by controversy, political disputes and criticism of administrative practices, not to mention the fact that Steele had capitalized on his legislative position to get a paying job with a state agency. Steele has used his legislative clout in other ways, particularly to help get business for family enterprises, such as his own media company. Competitors also think his brother's ad agency has benefitted from the state connection. Worse than all that was Steele's solicitation of charitable contributions to a foundation he established from business interests that need help from the legislature. As we've reported before based on public documents, the majority of money raised for that charity has gone — not to direct services to youth — but into Tracy Steele's pocket or to provide him with an office. Critics of Smith argue that the Hays administration, with Smith as lead administrator, also took care of friends, too. I hope both sides speak directly and candidly on these issues. This is a big job, overseeing a lot of money in a city where a couple of aldermen were packed off to prison not long ago.

Steele is a better personal campaigner. That's no small plus in a city where the mayor is such a dominant figure in city government.

UPDATE: Steele announced Wednesday evening that opponent Mark Clinton, who's from the teabagger political school, would endorse him tomorrow. That's a reason NOT to support Steele.

A break from TV gives me a chance to say:

Without Florida, Mitt Romney loses and Florida isn't looking good.

UPDATE: It's over. Ohio goes Obama and so goes the nation. A historic victory on a night when Arkansas will make history of its own by not edging, but leaping into the Republican column with total control of U.S. House seats and what appear to be huge margins in the legislature.

Republicans will sweep the Arkansas congressional seats. Moral victory for Herb Rule, who appears to be heading to a big win in incumbent Congressman Tim Griffin's home county. Maybe Griffin should move to Benton, Conway or Searcy, which overwhelmingly supported him and will give him a comfortable victory overall. He never legislates with Pulaski interests in mind. Repudiation at home isn't a great springboard for his 2014 Senate race.

The Arkansas legislative final tally is a long way off, but a Republican majority is a certainty. House staff members will be typing up resumes. Republicans may sweep most of of the contested Senate races. Gov. Mike Beebe will be figuring out how to govern a legislative majority he tried to thwart. Among the outcomes: Barbara Graves has conceded her hard-fought race against Republican Allen Kerr. Rep. Jim Nickels, a progressive Democrat, narrowly survived a Republican challenger from Sherwood. Some other Pulaski legislative races are still up in the air, but Sen. David Johnson will handily defeat a Tea Party opponent. Mark Lowery apparently has defeated Kelly Halstead for a Maumelle House seat. The Barry Hyde-Jane English Senate race in North Little Rock is tight, but with Republican English ahead. Tight, too, are Senate races in Northeast and Southeast Arkansas.

RUNOFF: It's likely for North Little Rock mayor, where Tracy Steele is leading 48-40 Joe Smith, the designated heir to Pat Hays. If Steele doesn't top 50 percent (and with 98.5 percent of the vote counted it doesn't seem likely), the runoff will be the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

LITTLE ROCK CITY BOARD: Gene Fortson edged ahead of Willard Proctor to apparenlty retain his Little Rock City Board seat with a 46-40 edge. The minor candidate who picked up 13 percent might have saved Fortson's rear in the no-runoff race.

STATEWIDE BALLOT ISSUES: The highway sales tax is comfortably ahead; opponents are beating medical marijuana 52-48 (Pulaski voters are approving it heavily); Issue 2, a corporate welfare scheme, is being defeated with about a third of the vote in.

• THE CHOICE FOR HOUSE IN JONESBORO: Harold Copenhaver.

There is thoughtful opposition, such as from veteran newsman Roy Ockert, who writes a column for the Jonesboro Sun. I"ve made it clear before that, even though we do endorsements here, I'm acutely aware of the limited influence they carry. I do think, though, that a respected voice in a local community on an intensely local race can have an impact. I certainly hope that's the case with Ockert's piece. He writes:

State representative, District 58 — Harold Copenhaver. He’ll be a strong voice for Jonesboro and Northeast Arkansas, which is needed. The incumbent, Jon Hubbard, has embarrassed us while pushing his own weird ideas instead of representing his district.

I note that Ockert also endorsed Democratic Prosecutor Scott Ellington over Rep. Rick Crawford, the Republican incjmbent, for the 1st District congressional seat. He noted that Crawford refused to participate in a statewide debate with Ellington, whom Ockert said had done a good job as prosecutor.

I think I see now why Republican Jason Rapert's Twitter posts have gotten even more shrill of late. Democratic opponent Rep. Linda Tyler has hit TV with some tough ads against Rapert.

Tyler also has a website detailing Rapert's recorded votes against the state budget bill, with money for education and higher education, when Republicans were mounting a rump drive to upend Gov. Beebe's budget plan. It notes Rapert has claimed to work with Beebe. It also notes his shrill criticism of Obama's economic stimulus program, even though he took some of the stimulus money too convert his pickup to gas power.

Rapert of late has been quoting the Bible extensively, apparently throwing in with the new Huckabee theme that only Republican voters are going to heaven.

A Talk Business/Hendrix poll today shows voters mostly in the dark on a legislatively proposed constitutional amendment that is a Trojan horse for yet another giveaway to real estate developers.

A NO vote is the proper option, as we've said before.

The poll says that 35 percent favor it, 35 percent oppose it and the rest are undecided. Not surprising. There's been no talk about it and no organized advertising so far. If any emerges, it will be a last-minute dishonest blitz from real estate developers anxious for approval of a deal by which compliant city and county officials (see Little Rock, whose board is controlled by the business community) would authorize a sales tax on hamburgers, groceries and everything else to subsidize commercial development, typically the likes of big sporting good stores and entertainment districts.

I bet some developers are waiting in the wings to seek this subsidy in Little Rock and that the chamber of ocmmerce-controlled board — which thinks free enterprise means free financing on the taxpayer tab — has lots of good ideas about taxing local people to benefit private interests. Sure they'll create some new waitressing and clerk jobs. But they'll also kill some at competitors elsewhere who don't enjoy such subsidies.

The amendment also makes it easier for local governments to borrow money and would allow taxes to shore up police and fire pension funds. Police and firefighters are the figleaf for another naked grab at corporate welfare, stymied by court rulings in the case of the Tax Increment Finance boondoggle, another real estate developer enrichment scheme.

Hold your breath: Looks like Teresa Oelke and the other running dogs at the Koch boys' Arkansas lobby and I are in agreement on this one. Haven't seen them doing any mailing on this one, however.

Oh, Jesus, I've just learned Debbie Pelley is against Issue 2 as well because it will supposedly fund UN projects. If Jerry Cox joins in, I may have to rethink.

• HOW LOW WOULD HE GO: Is there anything that could prompt GOP Chair Doyle Webb to disavow a party candidate?

They will…I would anticipate that the voters in their districts will send them back to the legislature,” said Webb. “Once again, we are a representative democracy and those candidates have done a good job at working for lower taxes, for job creation, for economic development, better education.”

They have said some things that are not the position of the Republican Party of Arkansas, but we believe in the freedom of conscience and the freedom of speech. And if they are successful, then we wish them good luck,” Webb said.

Got it? If a candidate is Republican, all is forgiven.

Bad as billionaire Jim Walton wants an automaton rubber stamp on his charter school legislation, even he had the good grace to say there are points beyond which he won't go for a vote and asked for his money back from Loy Mauch.

(Seem funny to you that no other news media seem interested in Jim Walton's written repudiation of Mauch's utterances?)

There isn't a better example of Republican Party principles and how low they'll go for control. You wonder what it would take for Doyle Webb to repudiate a Republican candidate. Profiteering on a widow woman's estate or undercutting a family member on a relative's estate probably aren't disqualifiers, given the history.

We also have the example of Faulkner County, where the Republican Party is urging re-election of a county official who finally resigned office because he wasn't eligible to serve. What's law got to do with it?

• Brian Chilson
• JUST FREAKING VOTE: That much of the message we get from the flamingos filing toward a "voting booth" at a house in North Little Rock.

Nothing like numbers. They seem so firm and real. Thus the increasing journalistic obsession with them. The monthly housing report. The monthly new car report. The monthly revenue report. The Dow Jones average. Early voting.

Election officials have been energetically tallying early vote totals and news outlets have been vigorously reporting them, sometimes breathlessly.

People forget some truisms that existed when the only polling was done election day. A line does not necessarily mean a big turnout. It may just mean a line longer than an undermanned polling station can handle. The early returns are meaningless, unless you know where they come from. TV reporters love to follow a dynamic of changing leads. "Joe Blow took an early lead, but Jane Doe came roaring back." It's not a 400-meter dash where a strong finishing kick overcomes a quick starter. Changing totals are only a function of how quickly votes are tallied in disparate precincts.

I'm reminded of this today by a Public Policy Polling Twitter on North Carolina results:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama's up 57/42 among early voters in NC, Romney leads 50/45 with those who have yet to vote:

Which tells us little until we know how many people vote early as a percentage of the total vote and how many vote late.

Early voting doesn't mean more voting, by the way, though increased opportunity, it's hoped, will produce more participation.

To quote Yogi Berra (supposedly): It ain't over until it's over. Remember when libs were sure that an incredible ground game was going to result in the recall of all those baddies in Wisconsin? Remember the tidal wave of black voters that was expected to respond in, among others, Arkansas to the first black presidential candidate in 2008?

This is clear: It is too soon to predict outcomes, either in total voting percentage or outcome, based on what's happened so far.

I think.

But, it can't hurt to "just freaking vote" as the tableau erected in North Little Rock suggests. If the smaller sign is not legible, it notes that no rigid Voter ID law applies here yet. But election officials may ask for an ID and may set your ballot aside for challenge if sufficiently in doubt.

• 'LIVE FOR PER DIEM': Allen Kerr did.

Kerr received the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette endorsement, in part for his protests of the (legal) practice by which state employees have been able to retire, draw a state pension and be rehired in state jobs. Fair enough. The system had some basis in a theory of encouraging valuable employees to work longer, but it has been abused. The editorialist, in praising Kerr, scorned other legislators, the "live-for-per-diem types grabbing all the tax money they can get."

Indeed.

Allen Kerr was a "live-for-per-diem" guy himself, in violation of the Arkansas Constitution. Yes, Allen Kerr for almost four years drew undocumented office expenses and an $850 monthly per diem waiver, worth about $2,200 a month altogether in the most recent year, merely for filing a bogus form for that monthly paycheck. That's more than $26,000 a year (on top of legislative salary), which sounds a lot like "grabbing all they can get." Over his four years in the House, Kerr piled up more than $80,000 in unconstitutional expense reimbursements, until a taxpayer lawsuit put a stop to the odious practice. Kerr was nowhere to be found cleaning up his own smelly stable, but state employees with real jobs? He was happy to kick THEM around.

The DOG editorial commented:

"Somebody needs to keep a sharp eye on the books."

Based on his sticky fingers, I'm not sure Allen Kerr is the guy to entrust with the green eyeshade.

• KARK TV
• AT THE POLL: Plenty of signs are waving at early voting sites.

Early voting doesn't suggest a highly motivated Arkansas electorate.

First-day voting in Arkansas was 26,763, according to the secretary of state, up a mere 503, or 1.9 percent, from first-day voting in 2008. That increase is below the state's population growth since 2008 of about 2.8 percent. (UPDATE: A Republican shill notes that (to the delight of the vote suppressing Republicans) the number of registered voters has declined slightly since 2008. So the increase is a tiny bit higher than first day four years ago on a percentage basis, though still up less than one-tenth of one percent. That seems lukewarm to me against the overheated partisan rhetoric.)

Opening day, then, indicated a turnout roughly equal to 2008's 65 percent of registered voters. That is, on balance, not good news for Democrats, whose traditional constituencies underwhelmed in 2008.

I voted first day at the county office on Broadway. It couldn't have gone more smoothly or quickly. There was a steady procession of voters, but ample workers on hand to accommodate them without a wait at 3:45 p.m. Lots of candidates — not just surrogates, but actual candidates — on hand with signs and a handshake.

UPDATE — GLITCH REPORT: A White County voter reports that the electronic ballot in Searcy doesn't fully print Rep. Tiffany Rogers' name. It cuts off about midway through — "State Representative Tiffany Ro....". Rogers, a Democrat from Stuttgart, is opposing Jonathan Dismang of Beebe in a hot Senate race. The Rogers campaign hopes to get the ballot corrected today, too late for those who voted early yesterday. At least one Democrat muddled through.

UPDATE II — RECOUNT: A Tuesday count by the secretary of state lifted first-day voting over 29,000, which is a more sizable increase. If it holds through the end of voting, his earlier prediction of a 65 percent turnout might be bested.

Two good examples in the morning paper of what to expect from a rising Republican majority:

* EROSION OF ETHICS LAWS: State Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb wants the state Ethics Commission to allow political candidates to use campaign money to attend national political conventions. This is boodling, pure and simple. There's no need for campaign money to be used to stay in an expensive hotel in a faraway city to rub shoulders with party pals except for self-aggrandizement. This is essentially an incumbent enhancement act. Only incumbents — who rake in cash from lobbyists sufficient to build up the unconscionable incumbent reserve fund allowed by the legislature — are likely to have the dough to use for these trips anyway. This will essentially open a back door for corporate interests to pay for deluxe travel for sitting legislators. It's wrong. Regnat Populus is coming. It's overdue. If you think this is the last money cadging gimmick in the quiver of Doyle Webb and the unemployed Republicans who live off the public teat and lobbyists' credit cards you ain't seen nothing yet.

* DISHONESTY: Rep. Bryan King is back with another lament on the op-ed page about the push for Voter ID laws to suppress voting by important Democratic constituencies — the poor, minorities and students. He is being dishonest yet again. He links absentee vote law abuse to the Voter ID laws. There is NO connection. Voter ID doesn't apply to absentee balloting, where abuses do indeed occur. In fact, Republicans in other states have objected to stiffening absentee voting laws for fear of depressing this vote, which is generally a Republican strength. If anything, in swing states, Republicans have worked to increase absentee voting.

But almost nothing has been done about the distinctive challenges posed by absentee ballots. To the contrary, Ohio’s Republican secretary of state recently sent absentee ballot applications to every registered voter in the state. And Republican lawmakers in Florida recently revised state law to allow ballots to be mailed wherever voters want, rather than typically to only their registered addresses.

“This is the only area in Florida where we’ve made it easier to cast a ballot,” Daniel A. Smith, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said of absentee voting.

He posited a reason that Republican officials in particular have pushed to expand absentee voting. “The conventional wisdom is that Republicans use absentee ballots and Democrats vote early,” he said.

Yes, Arkansas Republicans have tried to curb early voting, becoming particularly enraged one year when black churches organized voter drives on Sundays before an election. Black people voting? That is fraud to Republicans.