Note to North Little Rock: I'm pretty sure that when you refinance a bond issue due to be paid off in three years by floating a new 10-year bond issue to pay off hydro plant costs (as the North Little Rock City Council did yesterday), it will cost a good deal more money cumulatively in the long haul, even if the interest rates are lower. Electric rates may not increase to carry that new interest cost, but they sure won't go down from the added expense. Every extra dollar in interest will, however, reduce the amount of electric company profit devoted to other city expenses in the form of electric rates' hidden tax on ratepayers.

What I'd like to see is a pencil put to the entire hydro project over time — all the repairs, all the months of inability to generate power, all the costs and interest compared against power sales against what the power would otherwise have cost from wholesale suppliers. Might be a heckuva deal. Somehow ....

• STEELE ANNOUNCES: Photo from Tracy Steele website of his announcement today.

State Rep. Tracy Steele announced today for mayor of North Little Rock, joining Joe Smith in the race to succeed retiring Pat Hays.

Funny. Steele didn't send a notice to me. But his website is up and an Argentan sent me a note about the announcement. Steele is a smooth politician. The less he's asked about his sometimes rocky tenure at the M.L. King Commission is probably the better, he figures. Plus, he's refused for some time now to talk about how he raises money from corporate contributors while a legislator for his Stand Foundation, which spends a hefty portion of its income paying a salary to — Tracy Steele. He got about half of the $156,000 raised in 2009 as a $77,000 salary.

Items on his web page note Steele's support for the popular recent school tax increase to rebuild city schools and for school dress codes. You'll recall he was the sponsor of anti-droopy-pants legislation.

Here's Joe Smith's web page. He emphasizes "openness and honesty."

BELATEDLY: A teabagger reminds me that Mark Clinton, a Tea Partyer, has also announced for mayor. Video says his first priority is "freedom" of religion. The Liberty Baptist grad's view of what that means likely differs somewhat from mine. He also wants to, surprise, cut taxes.

Hats off to North Little Rock School District leaders who methodically built a campaign for a 7.4-mill school property tax increase.

It passed by a decisive 3,841 to 2,847. A 57 percent vote for a major tax increase is stunning and this turnout was large for a special election, about 20 percent of registered voters.

Looks like it carried in every precinct except two, at Calvary Baptist Church in Rose City and Levy Baptist Church.

Outgoing Mayor Pat Hays stood firmly behind this tax increase, despite some differences with the district over tax increment financing. The schools got a better result than his sales tax increase.

The district will take its construction plan to the state in March for state support. It hopes to begin construction in spring 2013.

PS — The school district election drew 6,688 voters, that's 1,400 more than the votes cast in the special sales tax election that lost by 140 votes. And the school district is significantly smaller than the city itself, so it go many more votes from a smaller playing field. The turnout was in the 35 to 40 percent range north of Interstate 40, in the higher income parts of the city. There are probably some lessons in this for city government and future political players, should they choose to take a look.

PPS — All of North Little Rock's school millage is now obligated to debt. That means it can't be captured for diversion to tax increment finance district use. The city could still create TIF districts that captured city and county property taxes, up to 10 altogether, on new developments. But this doesn't produce much.

• Smith campaign
• ANNOUNCING: Joe Smith.

As forecast here last week, Joe Smith, a long-time administrator in North Little Rock, announced for mayor today to succeed retiring Commodore Pat Hays. No word if he's a Navy buff, too.

State Rep. Tracy Steele is a likely opponent. Others have talked about a race. Here's Smith's release:

• JOE SMITH

In an e-mail to friends, he said:

I want to invite you to a special announcement at North Little Rock City Hall on Tuesday, 1/24/12, starting at 11:45. It will be an important day for me and my family and I hope to be surrounded by friends and colleagues. Feel free to invite your friends. Hope to see you on Tuesday!

Don't think the subject will be the Burns Park geese.

• RETIRING: Mayor Pat Hays.

The mayor didn't make an announcement to the Council, as had been rumored, but it turns out he did make his decision known in an exclusive given earlier in the day to Jake Sandlin of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. He cited his age. He just turned 65.

Hays is genial, but he has amassed total power over the mechanics of northside government. The city has much to show for it in projects like the ballpark, arena and riverfront trail. The downtown, thanks to significant private investment, is a model for downtown revitalization. But Hays fatigue (on the part of voters) was evident in a recent sales tax defeat, albeit a narrow one that might have been different had Hays not overreached on the size of the increase and the millions devoted to an incomplete and expensive idea for the city to get into the land speculation business.

For all that he's done, North Little Rock hasn't experienced real growth. Maumelle has captured much of the growth vitality on the city's western flank. The changing demographic face of the city — it nears majority minority — will be a factor in the race to succeed Hays. State Rep. Tracy Steele will be in the race. City official Joe Smith also is a likely candidate. Steele starts with much greater name recognition, a successful political career and, I should add, a mountain of baggage.

I have had my disagreements with Hays. But at his core he's a moderately progressive leader who really seemed to love his job and worked at it incessantly. I'd note he made a home for the homeless, without a note of demagoguery, when Little Rock failed to deliver year after year on its promise to provide a homeless facility. I honestly don't think Pat Hays would demagogue a center for veterans, as Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola is doing today. As home to an expansive VA hospital, North Little Rock is well familiar with serving those who've served the country.

Hays said he still might have some public service in him for North Little Rock or Central Arkansas. I wish that was a hint that he would jump into the race for 2nd District Congress, still lacking a Democratic candidate. He told me several weeks ago, however, that wasn't on his radar.

• SAVED FROM HUNT: The Canada geese in Burns Park will be shooed, not shot.

The Coalition to Save the Geese of Burns Park has announced that the city of North Little Rock has agreed to a non-lethal method of controlling the Canada geese problem in the city's Burns Park. The city hopes to shoo them with dogs rather than shoot them.

Scott White of the Coalition said the decision was reached at a meeting this morning with Mayor Pat Hays; Parks Director Bob Rhoades and Kate Finefield, the Burns Park ranger. White said they discussed options for reducing the flock of some 200 geese — whose waste and personalities have been a problem in the park. The idea of a controlled hunt was scrapped for alternatives. Which ones?

"They ultimately settled on all of them — a double-barreled approach, no pun intended," said White. The work will begin immediately. The city will contract with handlers of several dogs to clear out the population rapidly, then eventually buy a dog for permanent patrol in the park, a method Little Rock has used successfully at Rebsamen Park across the Arkansas River from Burns Park.

Noise and light distraction also will be used, with flashing lights and possibly remote-controlled boats to disturb geese in the water, White said. Habitat will be changed by the planting of shrubs and tall grass between the golf course and soccer fields and water. White said geese like an easy path between grazing places and water and this disruptionshould discourage their making homes in the park. Rangers also will search for nests, temporarily remove eggs and apply oil, a process known as addling, which prevents eggs from hatching.

White said he expected the deal would become official with announcement at a City Council meeting tonight. The mayor told White he expected no "pushback." White said city officials said it could cost $24,000 to implement and they asked the Coalition to pay half the cost. White has put out a call for donations and set up a bank account to accept contributions.

"If we strike while the iron is hot, I think we can do it," White said. The proposal to reduce the flock by killing them had produced an outcry from animal lovers. That, in turn, produced some strong words from hunters anxious to take a shot at the birds.

UPDATE: Mayor Hays said White had described the morning meeting accurately, but said, "I'm not quite the city of North Little Rock." He said the deal wouldn't be official unless the City council approved tonight. He said he'd been moved to try an alternative because he couldn't adequately respond to those they hadn't been given a chance to show alternatives to a hunt could work. He said it was unfortunate that the parks commission's decision to hold a hunt had gone unreported and became known only shortly before the City Council first decided to go ahead with it.

A week before the scheduled hunt, Mayor Hays postponed it to give the community time to come up with alternatives. He didn't promise then that the hunt was scrapped for good, but city officials apparently decided that enough good suggestions came from the extended comment period to give them a try.

The news release from the coalition follows:

• MAYOR HAYS: Done in 2012?

He said on Facebook last night that he has one and that report was bracketed for me with an independent report of the same information from another North Little Rock politico who usually has his finger on the northside pulse.

Too early to call Mayor Pat Hays himself, but Scott says:

Mayor Hays is NOT running for re-election next Fall according to two sources in City Hall. Look for the newspaper article soon. Reportedly Joe Smith, the NLR City Commerce Director will be running for the Mayor's office.

Pat Hays has been playing it coy about re-election next year after what seems like a century in the office. The recent sales tax election was seen by many as something of a proxy on another re-election bid by Hays. Two proposals were narrowly defeated.

State Rep. Tracy Steele has all but made official his candidacy regardless of Hays' decision. I've had my quarrels about Steele, particularly his paying himself a handsome salary to lead a private foundation that spends most of its money on Steele's salary and depends on contributions from corporate entities that happen to also find it useful to stay friendly with an Arkansas legislator. I don't have any reason to believe he'd operate any differently as mayor. Commented one of my correspondents, however:

I know you have issues with Tracy, but I think he's at least one who cares about people in the "crescent" as I call it. Rose City up E. Washington along the river to Baring Cross, Amboy and Levy. The good ole boys downtown are all a'twitter about having to beat Tracy because he'll end their playtime.

Potential issue: The Argenta City Club, a group of Hays' movers and shakers and a building looked after by the city for their use.

UPDATE: I caught up with the mayor after lunch.

"I appreciate Scott Miller sharing what hasn't been decided yet," said the mayor (jovially). He said he was sticking for now with what he'd said before: "I'm running until I say otherwise."

He said, "to be candid," that the fact that he'd served almost 24 years and that he was nearing 65 were both factors in considering what he might do next year. He said he'd set a deadline of the first half of January to decide what he planned to do and to communicate it. "Over the holidays I'm going to give it some real serious thought," he said.

UPDATE II: Meanwhile, a statement rolls in from occasional NLR candidate and gadfly Bubba Lloyd, who says he might consider a mayoral race in 2012:

• CURRENT HEADQUARTERS: NLR Electric Department

An article in the morning paper quotes North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays about cuts that will be necessary as a result of voters' failure to approve a couple of sales tax increases. Planned expenditures on fire and police won't be possible. Well ..

Remember that only a half of a half-cent, $3 million or so a year, was for operations. Remember that in two years, $14 million now going to hydro bonds will be released. Remember that North Little Rock not long ago got a sharp drop in wholesale electric rates and didn't pass all those savings along to customers. Remember that the Electric Department has done well enough to pay millions to provide electrical service to the CAT factory and to talk about building a new headquarters building and relocating from downtown (to free the building for downtown redevelopment). Until the mayor demonstrates otherwise, I'd be curious whether there was some wiggle room available for vital services from an agency that taps residents (and Sherwood) for $100 million a year in revenue.

You can peruse precinct results on special election issues in Pulaski County here.

Road bonds enjoyed support everywhere, of course.

In North Little Rock, though votes on the two half-cent tax measures were relatively close — 52-48 on the permanent half-cent and 53-47 on the temporary half-cent — the voting wasn't nearly so polarized as the Little Rock sales tax election, where most neighborhoods opposed the tax but heavy approval in a handful of upper-income neighborhoods (Heights and Hillcrest) carried the election.

Looking just at the permanent half-cent, it enjoyed favor in only 8 of 25 voting precincts:

* 60-54 in Precinct 52, the Sherman Park Community Center.

* 126-93 in Precinct 51, which votes at the North Little Rock High-East campus near McCain Mall.

* 104-97 in Precinct 25, which votes at a church at 6801 JFK in Indian Hills.

* 257-248 in Precinct 20 at Lakewood United Methodist Church.

* 101-78 in Precinct 17, which votes at the Willow House.

* 87-64 in Precinct 16, the Argenta neighborhood that votes at City Hall.

* 55-33 in the combined Precincts 13E and W, which vote at Immaculate Heart of Mary Church in Marche.

* 3-0 in Precinct 8, which votes in Maumelle.

Generally speaking, then, most support — but it wasn't overwhelming — came in higher income white neighborhoods, except Sherman Park. It is a black neighborhood and, though it supported the permanent tax, it barely voted against the temporary tax (55-57), which happens to reflect what state Rep. Tracy Steele, a future mayoral candidate, said was his position on the two taxes.

If you're counting, those limousine pro-tax liberals in Precinct 107, which votes at the Heights Fire Station, appear to have given the road bonds its biggest percentage vote in the county — 168 to 6, or 96.6 percent of vote to 3.4 percent.

The North Little Rock School District today provided me a copy of a letter it sent North Little Rock City Attorney Jason Carter proposing a settlement of the district's lawsuit over the city's tax increment finance district set up in late 2008.

Here it is. Carter said he had not received a copy of the Nov. 4 letter yet, though he confirmed he'd had a discussion on a settlement with Smith. I've sent it to him and he promises to try to get a city response. The suit is scheduled to go to trial next Wednesday. The North Little Rock School Board, which would have to approve a settlement of the suit, meets next Thursday.

Unless this is the first part of a process in which the city is expected to make a counter-offer, I can't readily see the city taking this deal. It would exclude all school district tax revenue in the TIF district from going into the TIF pot for potential improvements aimed at spurring further redevelopment. The city would also have to turn over to the schools money collected so far. That was the point of the lawsuit, particularly to prevent the city from capturing property taxes on the $30 million Enclave apartment project. ON THE OTHER HAND: Most lawyers I've talked with think the city has scant chance of prevailing in the lawsuit, particularly on procedural grounds, and saving face by a settlement would be useful. The TIF district would continue and capture some small revenue from the city and county.

The city met on New Year's Eve 2008 to create the gerrymandered district (extended along city streets although the law requires contiguous parcels of land) to include the Enclave before that property went on tax rolls at its new, higher assessment. Under TIF law, the value of property is frozen at the level that existed when a district is created. Future increases in value that produce increased taxes accrue to the benefit of the TIF district, not taxing entities. There are a number of small property millages — city and county, for example — affected, but the big school millage is the primary revenue-producer of TIF districts.

Settlements generally indicate both sides get something. The city's gain would be less tangible than the school district's, but it would still have its TIF district.

• MODERATING THE MAYOR: Rep. Tracy Steele will moderate the mayor's tax talk, while reportedly eyeing his seat.

Mayor Pat Hays will be on hand to bob and weave. State Rep. Tracy Steele will be the moderator.

And therein lies a tale.

North Little Rock politicos think this: Steele, term limited, WILL run for mayor in 2012 no matter what Hays does. It's a presidential election year with a black candidate at the top of the ballot. President Obama will presumably do well and spur turnout in the home turf of Steele, who is also black. And did you know that North Little Rock dropped from 62 percent white in 2000 to 51 percent white in the 2010 Census?

Hays, on the other hand, has been coy about whether he'll seek another term. Some think the tax election is a proxy for his decision. A big win and he runs again. A big loss and he retires to play with his grandkids.

I wouldn't count on Steele getting out in front on the sales tax in either direction. He's unlikely to push it. But it would be a big pile of cash for a new mayor to spread around, particularly since the $15 million would pile on top of $14 million in freed money in two years when the city finishes paying off bonds for its hydro plant.

I can't personally vouch for this scenario, but I see how it hangs together. Racial politics are certain to be an increasing component of north side affairs. The school district — which isn't coterminous to city boundaries and gives up growing white areas to the Pulaski School District on east and west — is already majority black. However, to inject another topic, there's still a chance that the state Education Department, currently operating the Pulaski County School District, might decide the long-term solution is a realignment of Pulaski districts. One district south of the river and two north of the river — Jacksonville in one and everything else in the other.

The talk is going around.