Thomas Pope 
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Recent Comments

Re: “Fear vs. facts

It's not the sky that falling it's the S&P 500 and the DOW Jones Industrials. The situation in china isn't helpful but these indexes are in an asset bubble in their own right, even after 3 500 point declines. They've yet to reach their 10 year averages but the risk premiums are definitely gone!

These indexes were driven there by 3 rounds of Quantitative Easing also known as money printing to buy T-bills, drive down yields and force investors into the stock market - to prevent a double dip recession. The Federal Reserve argued it had to implement the policy because the Obama stimulus package was capable of generating growth and jobs for only 2 years. By 2010 the economy was sinking again. In essence, they turned the U.S. into a Banana Republic!

A Banana Republic is a situation in which the profits of corporations are assigned to the owners but the losses are assigned to the government or the people.

The strategy worked for a while but now there is a bubble and has to be a correction. The problem is, all of the tools the Fed has to reverse a crash have been exhausted trying to keep the Obama economy afloat the last 5 years. Interest rates are still very low and the money supply has been expanded around 30%. If the Fed prints any more currency for a second bailout the dollar could become worthless paper. 25% is the benchmark for when currency crises begin in the literature, although the U.S. has delayed the inflation of the currency by not letting the banks have access to those dollars in their member accounts. NTL, when the next crash begins the market will fall a long way before it reaches its bottom and the economy will follow!

In a severe market crash the banks will need access to their member accounts to maintain liquidity. When the excess currency enters the M2 the increase in the velocity of money will set the dollar on an inflationary spiral and the collapse will become the Second Great hyper inflation Depression.

This scenario is the dire economic situation about which the president says people are peddling fiction. The Hoover Institute has proposed that the congress legislate a policy to instruct the Fed to follow that will minimize the deterioration of the dollar but I don't imagine anyone in the White House would take their advice. After all, they predicted that the stimulus package would be too weak to recover the economy and Quantitative Easing would destroy the currency in the long run. The Obama administration would have to admit they made a terrible economic policy mistake and they're not about to do that in the middle of an election!

Democrats argue Obama prevented a depression but in reality he just delayed one 2 years and the Fed has delayed it another 5 years. But eventually, it will come; there is no way out! Obama said he wanted to fundamentally change America, and he has. But not in the way that he envisioned!

Posted by Thomas Pope on 01/20/2016 at 4:19 AM

Re: “Obama's sins, real and imagined

Obama's sin: the failed stimulus package that added 790 billion on to the 2009 Bush budget deficit, was capable of generating only 2 years growth. By 2010 the economy was already sinking again. That's when the Federal Reserve reentered the bond market after the bailout to drive down rates, force investors into the stock market and propel the economy. Uptick, downtick, never really taking off!

It worked for a while but now there's a bubble in the S&P 500 and has to be a correction. But since the Fed's balances has swelled to over 4.5 trillion in printed money to distort the bond market and short term interest rates are already at zero, there are no tools available to them to correct the coming market collapse.

How far will the markets fall? Perhaps 70% or more and there is nothing the Fed can do to stop the crash - except, print more money, which will virtually guarantee to destroy the dollar even more than it already is with a 25% expansion of the MS. More money printing would be a sure way to usher in the Second Great Depression.

Essentially, Obama's sin is taking the country off Reaganomics under the notion that a government stimulus would restore the economy to full employment with high wage jobs with good benefits. Instead, what has occurred is two thirds of the jobs created were low wage, no benefit jobs taken mostly by illegal aliens, a declining labor force participation rate to 62.3%, and doubling to 20 trillion of the U.S. national debt. And in spite of all that economic failure none of the Democratic Party candidates for President understand just how precarious the U.S. economy is at the moment. And that includes President Obama too!

3 likes, 5 dislikes
Posted by Thomas Pope on 11/30/2015 at 7:22 PM

Re: “How do you say thanks in Chinese?

Thank you in Chinese is "Keep up the currency manipulation!"

Posted by Thomas Pope on 11/30/2015 at 7:00 PM

Re: “Tom Cotton and American fascism

Mr. Tomlinson,

Your misunderstanding of the nature of Fascism is typical of so many left wingers!

A Fascist is a Socialist or Social Democrat who has come to realize the inferiority of socialism in creating wealth and jobs and a prosperous society; and allows private enterprise to exist because they can use them to raise the taxes and their support to build an all powerful, controlling central government on behalf of their agenda.

In Fascism government is the senior partner and businesses serve the needs of the state, usually at the point of a gun!

It has nothing to do with support for Israel, Citizens United campaign spending legal decisions or the Koch Brothers!

By the way: do you know how many corrupted media, technology, and Wall Street billionaires donate to the Democrats? It dwarfs Republican billionaire donations! I guess if the DNC tells you to criticize someone, the rank and file fall in line, no matter how many wealthy people support the Democrats!

It's virtually impossible for a person who supports the free market as Tom Cotton does to be a Fascist. Their philosophy does not believe in government taxing or exercising sufficient control over businesses to set up a Fascist system - the free market is the invisible hand that makes the economy self-regulating.

A Proto-Fascist is someone who is evolving towards this oppressive economic system by supporting a never ending list of increases in government spending, control and regulation, and taxation to create a fair and just society, in their view.

However, utopia is never quite achieved because the amount of GNP confiscated by government to achieve this goal soon begins to starve the private sector of investment and job creation capital, just as it is now. The unemployment rate rises, and the debt mounts, the economy collapses, the currency is debased through deficit spending and an expansion of the money supply - until a hyper inflation depression begins.

Fascists appear after hyper inflation, hyper unemployment, homelessness, hunger and chaos have spread fear throughout the land. People begin to say, the nation would be stronger if there were a strong leader. Eventually, to restore order and the economy, an autocratic leader takes over, suspends the constitution and laws and rules by decree.

War, antisemitism and a Holocaust follow after more so called evolving on the issues! Suddenly, people of Jewish dissent become their favorite scapegoats!

The Democratic Party and its liberal supporters are the Socialists and Social Democrats following closest the series of events that would lead to a Fascist take over. It's estimated that 20% of the delegates at the most recent Democratic Party convention were staunch antisemites!

So you can stop accusing Tom Cotton or any Evangelical movement or other conservative of promoting Fascism because it simply isn't true!

0 likes, 1 dislike
Posted by Thomas Pope on 08/02/2015 at 6:59 PM

Re: “Obama takes long view

The substance of the agreement is in the framework for an enforcement mechanism!

Barack Obama has turned too much of the inspection procedures in the Joint Plan of Action over to the United Nations and the Iranians for them to be significant in preventing Iran from deploying nuclear arms before the 10 year time limit.

There is an approximately 2 week delay between a request from the P5+1 group and the start of an inspection.

The initial request for an inspection is presented to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, which has approx. 1 week to seek an alternative solution.

If after 1 week no solution is negotiated, the request is formally presented to the Iranian government.

The Iranian government then has another week to remedy the reason(s) an inspection was requested.

In the opinions of many critics, a 2 week delay is more than enough time for Iran to conceal evidence they are violating the agreement.

Another questionable constraint of the agreement is only the Iranians are allowed to collect the soil samples that might provide evidence of nuclear weapons development.

P5+1 inspectors are not allowed to collect soil samples, providing Iran the opportunity to prejudice the evidence!

1 like, 0 dislikes
Posted by Thomas Pope on 08/01/2015 at 2:36 PM

Re: “The U.S. and Iran

Here Dumas presents a disconnected cluster of propaganda; an inaccurate version of historical and recent events, and doesn't address the purpose of Iran's current foreign and military policies to expand its control and authority in the region!

In a recent article by Josh Gelernter, Iran: The Truth about the CIA and the Shaw, we learn it's pure left wing propaganda that Mossadegh was a popular democratic prime minister! After he nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, oil production fell so drastically that Iranian citizens were becoming poorer and poorer. Eisenhower feared that the oil reserves he had left would be delivered to the USSR, which was trying to force nations on every continent under communist control! Anti Mossadegh government demonstrations in the streets numbered in the thousands, whereas the CIA sponsored demonstrations numbered a paltry few hundred. Just like in the overthrow of Allende in Chili, the Iranian people deposed Mossadegh, to return the Shaw to power, with a little help from the CIA.

But in the current corrupted system of media and academic control, almost exclusively by leftists, which are the predominant constituent of political correctness, an incorrect version of history is written into the literature, passed around as news and taught to students, so that it becomes an adulterated fiction!

The overthrow of Shaw Pahlavi was a popular Revolution in 1979 because by then the Shaw had alienated so many divisions of society. But the vast popular support for the Revolution soon disappeared after the Mullahs established an Islamic theocratic totalitarianism. The true collapse of foreign policy was the failure of President Jimmy Carter to preside over a transition from the Shaw's autocratic rule to a democratic system!

What are Iran's ambitions in the Middle-East?

Iran's often stated goal is to restore a caliphate under Shiite domination, which they intend to use to subdue surrounding nations and attack western nations to impose Shiria law worldwide! Iran's radical Suni enemies are seeking to establish a caliphate in Saudi Arabia, which they believe would usher in an era of peace and tranquility. There lies the main source of contention in the region!

Iran's strategy centers on hatred of Israel, which they describe as a "cancerous tumor", which should be wiped off the face of the earth.

Iran's tactics are to squeeze the Israeli government through Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. , and to expel American influence from the region. But Iran also has murdered opposing officials in other countries worldwide and killed American military in Iraq!

In the Mullah's strategy, once Israel is dispensed with they can engage Saudi Arabia for Shiite supremacy. SA is seriously considering its own nuclear weapons program to counter Iran.

Iran's Mullahs appear to be increasingly more radical, threatening Israel and the U.S. with destruction even in the middle of negotiations over their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Contrary to Dumas' and Obama's contention that failure to enact the agreement will lead to war, it's the ineffectual procedures agreed to by the administration that trigger an inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities that almost guarantee there will be a war!

Obama has taken the agreement out of consent by the congress, and turned over to the UN. The initial stages of inspection require the UN IAEA, to convene a panel to determine if an inspection is warranted. They are given an entire week to decide to inspect or not. If the panel decides an inspection is warranted, they notify Iran's government, which has a week to remedy the situation or permit an inspection - giving Iran plenty of time to cover over for a nuclear development program. The agreement has a virtually meaningless enforcement mechanism, which is only significant to the Shiite sympathizer in the White House!

If an unworkable agreement were not enough reason for war, a move by the Russian Federation president, Vladimir Putin to annex the former regions of the USSR ie Ukraine and the Baltics, where Russian nationals predominate would surely bring the world to war much quicker. Iran is a Russian proxy in the Middle-East and would have no choice but to strike Israel and U.S. interests in the region. In fact, Iran's Mullahs have become hostile in recent years they are salivating at the opportunity to strike Jerusalem and sink an American aircraft carrier!

0 likes, 3 dislikes
Posted by Thomas Pope on 07/26/2015 at 5:00 PM

Re: “Trump, hatred and the economy

R. Bean writes: Our economy keeps getting worse — and I don't expect that to change. It's a crisis due to a combination of problems: too many big corporate mergers, outsourcing, and increased automation and computerization, two factors that can't be stopped and will get worse.

T. Pope writes: Many of these ideas are of course the policies that have led to depression-like conditions on the periphery of Europe: Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and now France is sinking under a socialist government, hopelessly dependent on Quantitative Easing to stay afloat - just like the U.S. economy!

The problem is, the Obama Stimulus Package was only capable of generating economic growth for 2 years. Obama's first post recession quarter was only 5% GNP growth - not enough to generate a self sustaining recovery! By 2010, the economy was already sinking again. That's when the Federal Reserve had to reintroduce QE or printing money to keep the economy afloat.

R. Bean writes: The economy is weak and getting worse because it's being driven by an expansion of the money supply, not business earnings! At present, virtually the entire world is bogged down in a Keynesian quagmire, expanding their MSs, which will cause tremendous problems with inflation in the years ahead!

T. Pope writes:

Europe can't recover because Obama and the Democratic Party took the U.S. off of Reaganomics! As a result, there is not enough economic growth occurring anywhere to benefit any depressed countries in any part of the world! Obama said he wanted the U.S. to be more like Europe and economically speaking, he has accomplished his goal.

Mergers and increased automation and computerization may cause temporary economic dislocation in certain industries, but if the overall economy is strong, workers can change careers and find more economically relevant jobs.

The government stimulus packages that have been tried to recover Europe and the U.S. are powerless compared to an across the board Reaganomics tax cut on incomes, interests, dividends and capital gains taxes! Four times since 1964, full employment has been restored following these kinds of tax cuts: JFK's tax cut, implemented by LBJ, Ronald Reagan's tax cut, Bill Clinton's capital gains tax cut in 1997, implemented by a Republican congress, and George W. Bush was able to restore full employment in only 3 years following a tax cut.

First post recession quarter growth rates following an across the board tax cut are typically 7 to 9%, followed by 6 to 8 years of dynamic GNP growth. That level of growth would eventually level off to the 3 to 4% range. But to reign in inflation associated with that kind of growth the Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates, which attracts enough investors to purchase T-Bills to finance the U.S. budget deficit.

Contrast that with Obama's Stimulus Package, which was so weak, the Fed had to hold interest rates near zero, attracting only about half of the investors necessary to finance the 1.3 trillion deficit. The Fed had to print the rest and purchase the debt itself, and as I said, future inflation resulting from those policies will diminish any economic growth in the years to come.

You talk about a living wage for every American, but the greatest hindrance to higher wages is the annual increase the money supply, and its resulting inflation, to cover large deficits, resulting from poor economic growth, and excessive Democratic Party spending programs! Year after year, people get the feeling that they can just never get ahead because the purchasing power of the dollar is always outpaced by inflation!

The second greatest hindrance to wage growth is the Democratic Party's obsession with immigration, designed to meet their needs for power, rather than the nation's need for immigrants. Mass legal immigration and refusing to restrict millions upon millions of illegal aliens from entering the country is depressing wages far greater than automation. In fact, you could say, that because corporations are so supportive of the Democrat's proposal for amnesties for illegals, many of them outright replacing U.S. nationals with immigrants to pay lower wages, is much more indicative of their greed than a tax cut or outsourcing.

Hillary Clinton is attacking Reaganomics, as a ineffective economic policy, but she is dead wrong! We're witnessing the weak economic policies right now as they proceed from the Obama White House and the European Union! If Clinton is elected there'll be no recovery in her term(s) of office either, no matter how much she expands Pre-K funding, or other non job creating policies she confuses with economic recovery. Obama and the Democrats talk about how they prevented a Second Great Depression, but all they did was delay a depression!

How long will it be before voters finally see their rhetoric, and their criticisms of Reaganomics policies in the 2008 campaign was a disinformation campaign of enormous proportions that has led this nation and world to the brink of an economic catastrophe similar to the German Weimar-Republic.

Posted by Thomas Pope on 07/22/2015 at 5:08 PM

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