Economy: Arkansas Blog, Arkansas Times

Arkansas unemployment rate dropped in April

Max Brantley — Fri, 17 May 2013 09:24:00 -0500

The Arkansas unemployment rate in April was 7.1 percent, down from 7.2 percent the month before. The number of people working rose. Here's the full report.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

'Obummer': Maybe that Kenyan ain't so bad after all

Max Brantley — Fri, 03 May 2013 09:35:59 -0500

Since it's customary to blame President Obama for any and everything unpleasant — see U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton (Club for Growth, D.C.) and the Boston bombings — should he also get some credit for positives?

We already knew the federal deficit was declining thanks in part to some economic recovery.

Today, the Dow stock average topped 15,000 this morning, a first.

The jobs report was strong.

I know. George W. Bush's policies are finally paying off. Right, Br'er Cotton?

Do we also thank W. for the billions headed to the Arkansas economy under the recent Obamacare expansion of health coverage for a quarter-million working Arkansans and their children? We certainly owe a thankyou to about half the Republican legislative delegation for that.

PS — This fight isn't nearly over. Read here about how corporate CEOs get fat on taxpayer-provided subsidies even as they fight to push austerity on the government in ways that hurt ordinary citizens.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

State revises tax income estimates upward

Max Brantley — Wed, 01 May 2013 13:54:00 -0500

The state Finance and Administration Department today issued revised forecasts for state tax revenue through the end of fiscal 2014 (June 30, 2014). The trend is upward, with increases in revenue forecast despite tax cuts taking effect in fiscal 2014.

A gain of 4.7 percent in net revenue is expected this year, which ends June 30, well beyond the 2.4 percent increase expected and the reason for a projected $137 million surplus.

In 2014, the net is expected to increase 1.9 percent, enough to cover spending priorities A-C in the state budget and leave an $18.9 million rain day fund and $13.8 million in surplus.

Here's the full report.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas unemployment rate holds steady

Max Brantley — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 10:36:00 -0500

The unemployment rate in Arkansas in March held steady at 7.2 percent, while the workforce dropped slightly. Full report here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas jobless rate unchanged in February

Max Brantley — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 10:22:00 -0500

The Arkansas unemployment rate in February held steady at 7.2 percent.

Details here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Walmart 'freaking out' about the economy

Max Brantley — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 11:49:56 -0600

From The Washington Post's Wonkblog:

“Well, we just had one of those weeks here at Walmart U.S. Where are all the customers? And where’s their money?”

Not doing so well. (The Washington Post)

On Friday, Bloomberg published a couple of internal e-mails from Wal-Mart executives panicking about the company’s worst sales start in seven years — “a total disaster,” as one put it. The execs attributed Wal-Mart’s slump to the payroll tax hike that kicked in on Jan. 1, cutting the median family’s take-home pay by about $1,000 this year.
So if Wal-Mart is struggling, does that mean everyone else should worry? There are two ways to look at this. The first is that this is a terrible omen. Wal-Mart makes up such a huge chunk of the U.S. economy — 2.3 percent of GDP in 2006 — that many analysts look to it as a key bellwether.

On the other hand, maybe Walmart's troubles are about competition, not the economy.

The theory here is that Wal-Mart is an “inferior good” — when times are tough and incomes are falling, consumers switch to shopping at the cheaper retail giant.

The flip side of that: When the economy rebounds, Wal-Mart’s higher-priced rivals do better. As it happens, Target’s sales rose 3.1 percent in January, part of an overall uptick in merchandise and department store shopping. So it’s very possible that Wal-Mart’s woes are just specific to the company — and not part of a broader trend.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Raising the minimum wage makes sense

Max Brantley — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 06:20:43 -0600

The Arkansas minimum wage is $6.25 an hour. A full-time worker can gross $250 a week ($13,000 a year with no vacations) at that rate. That's plenty, according to the likes of Rep. Debra Hobbs, who once said if her cleaning lady would just work a few more hours, she could afford to buy her own health insurance and not look for government to pay for her shiftless self.

(Forget for the purposes of this discussion that Rep. Hobbs can qualify for a taxpayer payment of more than $10,300 a year for solid gold family health insurance coverage.)

A proposal pends to raise the Arkansas minimum wage. Nationally, President Obama has called for raising the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 to $9. Paul Krugman makes the case for the increase today and answers those who says it's bad for business.

Fairness is a good place to start. Adjusted for inflation, the current minimum wage is lower than it was in the 1960s. But wouldn't it harm business?

... there’s evidence on that question — lots and lots of evidence, because the minimum wage is one of the most studied issues in all of economics. U.S. experience, it turns out, offers many “natural experiments” here, in which one state raises its minimum wage while others do not. And while there are dissenters, as there always are, the great preponderance of the evidence from these natural experiments points to little if any negative effect of minimum wage increases on employment. [Think Arkansas. We've always trailed most of the country in our own minimum wage. Look around you at the prosperity that's produced. Think Right to Work Law, too. Think crummy workers compensation. Etc.]

Why is this true? That’s a subject of continuing research, but one theme in all the explanations is that workers aren’t bushels of wheat or even Manhattan apartments; they’re human beings, and the human relationships involved in hiring and firing are inevitably more complex than markets for mere commodities. And one byproduct of this human complexity seems to be that modest increases in wages for the least-paid don’t necessarily reduce the number of jobs.

What this means, in turn, is that the main effect of a rise in minimum wages is a rise in the incomes of hard-working but low-paid Americans — which is, of course, what we’re trying to accomplish.

Finally, it’s important to understand how the minimum wage interacts with other policies aimed at helping lower-paid workers, in particular the earned-income tax credit, which helps low-income families who help themselves. The tax credit — which has traditionally had bipartisan support, although that may be ending — is also good policy. But it has a well-known defect: Some of its benefits end up flowing not to workers but to employers, in the form of lower wages. And guess what? An increase in the minimum wage helps correct this defect. It turns out that the tax credit and the minimum wage aren’t competing policies, they’re complementary policies that work best in tandem.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Investors beware: If it's too good to be true ...

Max Brantley — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 06:45:47 -0600

The New York Times has a good cautionary story today. It's about how people looking at low interest rates of conventional investments have been drawn to risky propositions to improve their retirement outlook. Dangerous business.

An Arkansas regulatory is quoted. Unsophisticated investors (and that's most of us) are being preyed on here, too.

...The victims are among the millions of Americans whose mutual funds and stock portfolios plummeted in the wake of the financial crisis, and who started searching for ways to make better returns than those being offered by bank deposits and government bonds with minuscule interest rates.

Tens of thousands of them put money into speculative bets promoted by aggressive financial advisers. The investments include private loans to young companies like television production firms and shares in bundles of commercial real estate properties.

Those alternative investments have now had time to go sour in big numbers, state and federal securities regulators say, and are making up a majority of complaints and prosecutions.

...There are few good statistics on the extent of the problem nationally. But cases are mounting in the offices of regulators like A. Heath Abshure, the securities commissioner in Arkansas, where a majority of the 66 open securities cases involve complex investments sold to less sophisticated investors looking for a steady return.

This story, again, is an illustration of the folly of the beloved Ignorance Caucus notion that we should wreck Social Security and Medicaid and replace defined benefits with vouchers that give money over to Americans to invest for themselves and insure themselves as they choose.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Will Arkansas raise the minimum wage?

Max Brantley — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 09:51:00 -0600

Ten states began the New Year with increases in their minimum wage rates. According to this article, 19 states and the District of Columbia now have minimum wages above the $7.25 federal rate.

Arkansas, of course, is not one of the states outpacing the federal minimum wage rate. Far from it. It's one of a handful of states that either pay below the federal minimum or — worse in the case of some Dixie brethren — have no minimum wage at all.

Arkansas last raised the state minimum wage in 2006, to $6.25 an hour, now $1 below the federal rate. It covers employees not covered by the federal rate. (Not very well, obviously.) Some employees are even exempt from that lower rate. Arkansas's chamber of commerce lobby (which controls the legislature generally) caved to the last increase in the face of a constitutional amendment drive that would have indexed the state rate to inflation. In retrospect, the forces for a decent wage shouldn't have caved.

A tipster tells me a Democratic legislator plans to introduce legislation this year to make the state minimum $8.25 an hour. I haven't reached him yet to confirm. I'd like to predict that the new Republican majority would be open to legislation that helps low-wage workers, but ....

UPDATE: Rep. Butch Wilkins of Bono confirms he plans to introduce this legislaton. It's simple. He'd increase the minimum wage to $8.25 an hour effective July 1.

Wilkins adds:

As you know there are a lot of people out there that are in need of help. These are people who are working for a living and not asking for a lot of help. The economy seems to be improving and now seems like the right time.

... You may recall in the 09 session I voted against a minimum wage bill sponsored by Rep. Nickels. At that time I thought we were headed into a deep recession and was worried about a loss of jobs that could accompany that bill. I feel much better about the economy at this time.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Jobless claims fall

Max Brantley — Thu, 27 Dec 2012 07:53:18 -0600

Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

First-time jobless claims fell 12,000 to 350,000 in the latest week, the lowest level in more than four years, the U.S. government says.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas unemployment rate drops to 7 percent

Max Brantley — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 09:44:18 -0600

The Arkansas unemployment rate dropped to 7 percent in November, from 7.2 percent the month before, but the size of the labor force still shrunk a bit.

Details here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Sen. Pryor to host Twitter Town Hall on fiscal cliff

David Ramsey — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 11:59:46 -0600

With even the Pope now joining the twitterverse, I am apparently the last person remaining without an account. Need to get on it! U.S. Senator Mark Pryor announced today that he’ll be hosting his first-ever Twitter Town Hall this Thurdsay, December 6 at 1:30 p.m. Tweet your questions to him about the fiscal cliff and make sure to use the hashtag #AskPryor.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Unemployment in Arkansas rose to 7.2 percent in October

Max Brantley — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 09:17:33 -0600

The Arkansas unemployment rate in October was 7.2 percent, up from 7.1 percent the month before. The workforce declined by 4,700 jobs.

Full report here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

The economy IS getting better, job report or no

Max Brantley — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 06:19:03 -0500

Joe Nocera of the New York Times offers a calm analysis of the monthly unemployment numbers, which had good news in a declining employment rate but a soft report on additional jobs. He explains thoroughly why Republican conspiracy theories are best dismissed. (Gotta love Republics who trust completely every good poll number they receive, but call all others manipulated.) Nocera admits to some head-scratching about contradictory aspects of the report, but also notes it's not the first time it's happened given differing methodology in the data gathering.

Nocera also quotes bullyboy Republican Jack Welch as backing off from some of his overheated comments about supposedly corrupt numbers from an independent federal agency insulated from politics.

Here's what's important:

There is rough justice in the way things are playing out. Having spent the last year wrongly blaming the president for high unemployment, Republicans can only stand by helplessly as the unemployment rate goes down at the worst possible moment for them. Fox News scoured the data Friday, looking for signs that the economy wasn’t improving. They found some: high unemployment for African-Americans, for instance, and fewer manufacturing jobs.

But the data were largely overwhelmed by positive signals. In its revised figures for July and August, for instance, the bureau said that more jobs had been created than it originally estimated. People with only high school degrees were finding jobs. The number of people who had been out of work for six months or more was at its lowest point in three years.

Whether the Republicans like it or not, the economy is slowing getting better.

What kind of American would WANT bad economic results? Somebody who puts politics above country?

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

More caution on tech park spending

Max Brantley — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 06:48:41 -0500

Now it's Slate with a cautionary tale about the rush by local governments to spend millions of taxpayer money to incubate technology parks, as Little Rock is doing under a plan hatched and controlled by the Little Rock Regional Chamber of Commerce.

The article mentions Louisville, hampered in its aim to do tech startups by a shortage of programmers. Uh, yeah, spec buildings don't count for much without somebody who can run the computers. Maybe, the article suggests, the focus on sci/tech is the wrong focus. Why not focus on creating incubation for, say, a national restaurant chain?

Check this excerpt, which is brilliant because it synthesizes precisely what I've been saying for years about the vision lacking in the continuing headlong rush by Little Rock and Arkansas to pass out corporate welfare dollars:

Having a pizzeria in your town is no great achievement, but having the corporate headquarters of a major international brand is. Given the realistic limits to how much high-tech growth your typical city can expect, the smartest move may be to look around at what great small businesses you already have and ask what they need to thrive and grow.

So what exactly do they need? Kauffmann’s analysis of the Inc. data found that such conventional measures as local venture capitalist activity, R&D spending by local universities, taxes, and patents per capita didn’t matter. The level of college graduates with degrees in technical subjects, by contrast, makes a difference, as does the overall ratio of new businesses to old ones. Having good local schools and being the kind of pleasant place to live that might attract skilled workers also turns out to be a generally sound growth strategy. The nonsignificance of taxes is itself an interesting finding, since all else being equal people prefer not to pay taxes. The flipside is that taxes finance public services, which may do more to attract firms and workers than taxes do to deter them.

The moral of the story, in other words, is that becoming a friendly place for successful startups is mostly about the fundamentals. Startups come in all kinds of sectors, and the biggest driver of startup success is a deep local pool of skilled labor. That means being a great place to launch a business and being a nice place to live are deeply related goals. Good schools, solid infrastructure, appealing cultural amenities, and a reasonable balance between taxes and public services mean more than a supercomputer.

Shazam! Good infrastructure. Good schools. A good place to live, with cultural attractions. These things grow communities. Double shazam! Taxes are not much of a factor for industrialists, except that a good tax base generally provides infrastructure, schools and cultural amenities. In Little Rock, though, the same-old, same-old prevails. Pour $28 million into an office building — and destroy a neighborhood while you're at it — and we all will be trickled upon.

WHILE WE'RE AT IT: States just can't quit passing out lucrative corporate welfare to movie makers, despite growing questions about the cost/benefits of the incentives.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Home sales down, but values up in Arkansas

Max Brantley — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 11:35:37 -0500

Arkansas apparently tracks the national trend on rising home prices, though the number of home sales fell in July and August, the Arkansas Realtors reports.

The number of sales statewide dropped, year-to-year, by 1 percent in July and 5 percent in August. But average sales prices rose year-to-year by 13 percent in July and 10 percent in August.

Get the full rundown here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas unemployment rate holds at 7.3 percent

Max Brantley — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 11:11:57 -0500

The Arkansas unemployment rate held steady in August, at 7.3 percent, but the total workforce dropped slightly.

Full report here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas Arts Center lays off 3 to outsource marketing

Max Brantley — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 14:57:26 -0500

The Arkansas Arts Center has laid off three marketing employees in favor of outsourcing the work to Stone Ward. Leslie Peacock's Eye Candy blog has the details.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

If it's all about jobs, Obama wins

Max Brantley — Sat, 15 Sep 2012 10:57:22 -0500

From today's New York Times:

THE job numbers in recent months have been disappointing, encouraging Republicans who hope that the slow pace of recovery will cause voters to reject President Obama.

But buried in the numbers was one accomplishment that serves only to emphasize how poorly the American economy has performed since 2000. The pace of creation of jobs in the private sector during the current administration is now greater than the pace in either of President George W. Bush’s terms in office.

More inconvenient facts for those who live in the reality-based world. The faith-based liars of the Romney/Lyin' Ryan campaign will find them no obstacle. They'll have a re-spin quicker than you can run a three-hour marathon.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Jobs report disappointing

Max Brantley — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 08:20:25 -0500

I fear the market may take back today what it gave yesterday. From CNN:

The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, down from 141,000 in July, the Labor Department said today.

The report is well below forecast and another sign of a fragile economic recovery. Economists polled by CNNMoney were expecting 120,000 jobs to be added.

Economists say at least 150,000 jobs must be created each month simply to keep pace with the growing population.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%.

White House response:

WASHINGTON, DC — Alan B. Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, issued the following statement today on the employment situation in August. You can view the statement HERE.

Posted by Alan B. Krueger on September 7, 2012 at 8:53AM

While there is more work that remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to support the elements of the American Jobs Act that have not yet passed, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders. To build on the progress of the last few years, President Obama has also proposed an extension of middle class tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase next year.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector establishments added 103,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 96,000. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 30 straight months, for a total of 4.6 million jobs during that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate declined from 8.3% to 8.1% in August.

Employment rose notably in leisure and hospitality (+34,000), professional and business services (+28,000), health care and social assistance (+21,700), and wholesale trade (+7,900). Manufacturing lost 15,000 jobs, including a 7,500 drop in motor vehicles and parts, which is partly payback for there having been relatively few seasonal auto plant shutdowns in July. Over the past 30 months, manufacturers have added more than 500,000 jobs. Government lost 7,000 jobs, as state government payrolls fell by 6,000 and local governments shed 4,000 jobs. Since February 2010, State and local governments have lost 504,000 jobs.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Can tech assembly jobs be brought back to U.S.?

Max Brantley — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 07:20:01 -0500

The New York Times takes an in-depth look today at whether the story of luring foreign car manufacturers to the U.S. could hold a lesson for bringing tech manufacturing (think iPads and other consumer electronics) to the U.S.

For years, high-tech executives have argued that the United States cannot compete in making the most popular electronic devices. Companies like Apple, Dell and Hewlett-Packard, which rely on huge Asian factories, assert that many types of manufacturing would be too costly and inefficient in America. Only overseas, they have said, can they find an abundance of educated midlevel engineers, low-wage workers and at-the-ready suppliers.

But the migration of Japanese auto manufacturing to the United States over the last 30 years offers a case study in how the unlikeliest of transformations can unfold. Despite the decline of American car companies, the United States today remains one of the top auto manufacturers and employers in the world. Japanese and other foreign companies account for more than 40 percent of cars built in the United States, employing about 95,000 people directly and hundreds of thousands more among parts suppliers.

It's a complicated topic. Tariffs, trade practices, tax breaks, work ethic and lots more figure. But it's important as the U.S. gropes with ways to enhance the manufacturing sector.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Better than expected jobs report for July

Max Brantley — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 08:02:52 -0500

The U.S. economy added 163,000 jobs in July, better than expected, but the unemployment rate still rose a tick, to 8.3 percent.

I'll play Krugman: Imagine how things would have been without the too-small, Republican-curtailed stimulus. Subtract a horde of auto workers, for starters.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas unemployment rates drops to 7.2 percent in June

Max Brantley — Fri, 20 Jul 2012 09:12:57 -0500

The unemployment rate was down to 7.2 percent in June from 7.3 percent the month before.

Report here.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Little Rock metro area dead last in recovery ranking

Max Brantley — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 12:38:41 -0500

A new Brookings Institute report describes a slow, uneven recovery in the country's 100 biggest metro areas.

It's another downer for us. The individual rankings put the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway area at 100th on the list. It was compiled by combining the rate of improvement in four key areas: 1) percent employment change, 2) percentage point change in unemployment rate, 3) percent change in gross metropolitan product, and 4) percent change in house prices.

Here's the specific listing on Little Rock.

Nowhere to go but up.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

Arkansas unemployment rate rises in May

Max Brantley — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 10:04:41 -0500

The Arkansas unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent in May, from 7.2 percent in April, though the workforce gained about 200 jobs.

Here's the full release.

[ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]