Custom polling
John Brummett digs deeper into Republican intimations that one of their internal polls shows the governor's race is neck-and-neck, with 41 percent for Democrat Mike Beebe, 40 percent for Republican Asa Hutchinson and 19 percent undecided.
[Clint Reed, the state Republican executive director] said the poll was conducted July 23-25, the week after the independent polls had prompted CQPolitics to reclassify the race as leaning Beebe's way. It was done by Victory Enterprises of Davenport, Iowa, which, according to its Web site, is headed by a former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party and has a long list of clients including several state Republican parties. ...
Reed explained that a few more calls were placed to northwest and central Arkansas than to east and south Arkansas. That was because more votes were cast in northwest and central Arkansas in the 2004 presidential election. Northwest Arkansas and suburban Little Rock are Republican; the southern and eastern sections lean Democratic. ...
Oh well, The Republican poll is not so different from Zogby. As I told Reed, his poll is "friendly, but not necessarily bogus." At least Asa can tell prospective donors that the race is razor close.



Comments
And the race probably will be razor close. Support for Beebe is still tepid. He benefits from the anit-Bush-anti-Huckabee-we-want-a-Democrat sentiment, but outside the AG's office, rabid Beebe supporters are almost as rare as the ivory-billed woodpecker. Beebe needs to do something to get people behind him with some enthusiasm. Of course, that would require some enthusiasm on Beebe's part, and that just may never happen.
Posted by: Pavel | August 10, 2006 03:30 PM
This poll is the most accurate of all. Most out of state pollsters divide the state into the four congressional districts and poll equally among the four. This would make sense, but since NWA has the highest voting percentage of any CD, this is the most accurate poll we have thus far.
Posted by: very interesting. | August 10, 2006 04:00 PM
Great job Clint. I hope that you told them as much information about the poll as possible.
Touting an internal poll was dumb but I can speculate why it may be needed. The entire methodology and where it came from? WTF? What happened to "no comment?"
Posted by: Anonymous | August 10, 2006 04:01 PM
If Mike Beebe lets ASA!, who represents the worst of the worst Administration in modern times, beat him, then he doesn't deserve to be governor.
You shouldn't lose to a hack lobbyist from a philandering family who is a former member of the Bush Administration.
Posted by: Odell Goodrum | August 10, 2006 04:11 PM
If Arkies vote for a Baptist preacher from OBUfor governor, a Baptist preacher from Jones University for senator, then they are very capable of voting in another graduate of Bob Jones University. This is the Bible Belt, folks, where people are hooked on the Bakkers, the Swaggarts, the Robertsons, the Falwells, the Criswells, the Reeds and all the Jay Coles.
Posted by: Cato | August 10, 2006 04:38 PM
Pavel,
You are absolutely correct.
More people live and vote in Central Ark and NW Ark. So it would make sense those areas are represented with higher percentage of people polled, Not just called.
And where is that ivory-billed woodpecker. Has it been found yet?
Gov. Asa or Gov. Hutchinson. They both sound good.
Posted by: frank | August 10, 2006 05:26 PM
Uh huh.....and Lieberman and Lamont were neck and neck too. The Republican bots are out doing their job, making it sound like Asa might have a chance. And then Mom and Pop Arkansas Voter might think, "gee...that Asa might not be such a damn nut after all if he's pulled up right there with Beebe".
Add that to the continuous message that Beebe is tepid, Beebe is silent, Beebe is weak. Oh, let's see...Beebe is for gays, no now he's against gays. Beebe has lots of terrible nasty dirty lobbyist friends. Zat so? Asa IS a lobbyist, what does that say for him?
Internal poll run by a Republican insider.....yeah, I think I'll take the word of a wino over that. But Repub-bots just keep it coming. Asa will lose as expect and Arkansas and America will be better off for it.
Posted by: Deathbyinches | August 10, 2006 05:49 PM
Yes, Cato, we Arkies have voted for some holy rollers in the past. Trying to get closer to God, I suppose, and ignoring the snake oil.
But ASA! can't cloak himself in the Good Word like some have in the past. Plus, he's a lobbyist. Hopefully, the voters have had enough snake oil.
Posted by: Sparky | August 10, 2006 06:58 PM
One thing about the GOP boys, they know how to play Brummett like a Les Paul Gibson. Vickery feeds him a riff. Brummett picks at the rhythm a bit, then Reed takes it and rolls it out for screaming finish. The crowd goes wild.
In the end, Brummett gets a column out of it and we get nothing except an "executive summary."
Never give Brummett an even break. Give him a summary and let him go home to his pinot noir.
And we know nothing more after reading his 850 words than we knew before.
It's better to burn out than to fade away, Johnny.
Posted by: Shakey | August 10, 2006 10:50 PM
Is Beebe going up on tv in the next two weeks?
Posted by: what is the deal | August 10, 2006 11:04 PM
What does that 19% look like with a good candidate in the race (that would be me for those who think only two horses are in this race)? Looks like 70% to me. Did you see the voter turnout numbers in the Lieberman primary?
Posted by: Rod Bryan | August 11, 2006 06:11 AM
DBI is right. This race is over. Vote Independent or Green Party and show the Democrat they no longer represent us!
Vote your heart!
Posted by: Anonymous | August 11, 2006 07:34 AM
You don't have to be a sociologist to recognize that these kind of polls are crap. There is a science to polling...but then the Bush administration has never let science stand in the way of a preferred result.
I hope the sciences survive Bush's ignorance.
Posted by: zelda | August 11, 2006 08:29 AM
Somehow I got the Asa! e-mail today. It amazes me that the Republicans seek to pull the wool over their own supports' eyes: The e-mail attempts to prove that the race is a dead heat. The conclusion of the e-mail states that Brummet "acknowleges" the closeness of the race when he writes "at least Asa can tell prospective donors that the race is razor close." Clearly Bummet's point is not that the race is close, but that Asa bought a poll, that poll is worthless, but at least they can use it to beg for money. The campaign twists his words - no surprise there - but to its own e-mail list? I assumed every Republican was in on the joke. We like minorities "wink-wink" and that kind of thing. But the more I see of the Repubs the more I see the average Joe being duped into supporting the elitist's party.
Posted by: Classified | August 11, 2006 12:55 PM
Poll shmoll. I don't buy any of it unless all the candidates are accounted for. How could anyone believe even one of these so-called polls when they don't give complete numbers? Baffles me...
Posted by: R4G | August 11, 2006 01:57 PM