Arkansas Blog

Zogby has it in the margin of error, Rasumessen has it in the margin of error - both of these polls used to show Beebe with a double digit lead. The Republican Party has a poll showing it 41-40.

I don't know how you could conclude anything other than - Asa is gaining and Beebe is losing ground.

One BIG correction to your commentary - - - - - - The only reason Beebe and Asa are equal in cash on hand is because Beebe has already purchased $1mill in TV ads for the last month of the campaign. so Beebe still has a huge fundraising lead - - over $1mill advantage!

Beebe is still the one to beat.

From September through the election, Asa will spend more money on TV than Beebe.

This has to be just killing Max.

Here's the truth. Polls are fun, but turnout is what matters. Clearly the GOP base is fired up, Demos not so much.

In this case, the tie goes to the guy with the hottest base. That would be the guy from Gravette.

Beebe has raised more money than A$a but he has wasted much of it. Beebe spent $2 million on staff and consultants. Why?

A$a won't raise as much as Beebe but he'll be on TV just as much. TV is all that matters. And, from the look of the campaigns this far he'll do a better job than Beebe.

Beebe has got to be the worst candidate we've ever run for Governor. Where is Jimmie Lou when you need her?

Bush and Huckabee numbers are exactly what I have seen in other polls. You libs are shocked that Arkansans don't hate Bush as much as you and the rest of the nation does.

Shocking, I know.

That high rating for the current governor and the inexplicable rating for the WH criminal must contain some explanation for the closeness of the numbers in this poll on candidates for governor. We are still easily fooled and desperate to believe in practically anything rather than face facts and reality. How about a poll that includes all the candidates for governor? Maybe that would offer a wake-up call to the democrats. I doubt it, though. They continnue to replay failed strategies with a hubris that might even shame Cheney.

What is interesting is that Beebe has never been able to get over 45 - 46 % of the vote. He has maxed out and all the independents seem to be flowing to Asa.

Also none of these polls factor in the Bryan/Lendall vote, which will also help Asa.

I am going to vote for Beebe and I am a Democrat, however, a little "I told you so" might be in order for the left wing of the Party. We don´t live in Massachusetts and we have to be smart if we want to put Democrats in office.

Also, I never thought I would say this, but I am glad the voters don´t pay too much attention to the down ballot candidates, because our nominees are awful.

The liberals are still shocked and in denial that the rank and file Arkansan does not share their hatred for Bush. NW Arkansas is a big factor in state wide races, even bigger this year than the liberals want to admit. Ths SMSA for NWA is estimated this morning to be in excess of 400,000. The Liberals need to come up with a lot more "walking around money" if they hope to lock this governor's race in. It should be interesting, very interesting.

...Clearly the GOP base is fired up, Demos not so much.

Just ask Lieberman about whether or not the Dems are 'fired up.'

It is true, however, that the Kool-Aid drinking Bush zealots stay fired up...aren't we lucky.

"Here's the truth. Polls are fun, but turnout is what matters. Clearly the GOP base is fired up, Demos not so much."

This is a scary reality. I think Republican discipline and the venom from the Democratic Primary (and this blog) is going to hurt Democrats in the fall.

Are you kidding? 75 percent of Arkansans think the Bible is literally true? Wow.
That says a lot.

I agree with "Thanks Max" a little. I have been a little nervous about Democratic performance since only one of the defeated candidates showed up for the "unity rally" after the Primaries. It does take a lot of money and effort to get people to the polls and there are some pretty angry voters out there.

I sure hope the "East Arkansas Mafia" which shoved everyone else out of the Party this year can produce on Election Day. If you think about it, there will be almost zero regional balance for the ticket this year since Beebe, Wood, Shoffner, and McDaniel are from within a county of each other (Wood, Shoffner, and Beebe went to High School together for God´s sake!)

All I have to say is that Willett Co. had better produce.

I want to see a poll with Rod and Jim included.

I am going to vote for Beebe and I am a Democrat, however, a little "I told you so" might be in order for the left wing of the Party. We don?t live in Massachusetts and we have to be smart if we want to put Democrats in office.

If there's any lack of intelligence, it's not among the "left wing of the party." It's Beebe and his lousy excuse for a campaign as he clumsily panders to the right wingers with his flip-flops on foster parenting and intelligent design. He simultaneously has pissed off his base while getting no traction among the rural right wing he is pursuing like a horny teenager.

The way the Beebe campaign tripped, stumbled and bumbled its way through taking positions on these issues was like Chevy Chase impersonating Gerald Ford on Saturday Night Live. Add in Jason Willett's brilliant commentary on Beebe making a "gaffe" and the Hutchinson campaign/Republicans are licking their chops.

Leading Democrats, especially those who are giving big bucks to the Beebe campaign and to the party, had better wake up. In 78 days, Asa Hutchinson will be governor-elect without major changes in Beebe's campaign.

A good first step would be to send Willett out of state until after the election. A Hooter's in the Southwest somewhere, maybe? Just make sure the press can't find him--he could go undercover as a waitress.

Has anyone done an analysis on the probable impact of the huge increase in population in NW Arkansas on state wide races this year? If the turn out is 5 to 10 per cent higher in NW Arkansas than in Central and Eastern Arkansas, do the numbers indicate a oceanic shift in the outcomes?

I want to see a poll with Rod in it.

Here's what I think of "lack of intelligence"'s commentary: Amen, ditto, I second that motion.

Beebe camp: you folks are gettin' beat six ways to Sunday. The GOP is controlling the debate, partly through the blogosphere. You can't respond to questions without sticking your foot in your mouth.

Here's a direct question for General Beebe himself: did you not think you'd be asked about abortion, gay adoption, intelligent design, etc? And, are those the best damn responses you could come up with? Give me a freakin' break. Quit talking like a lawyer. You're not writing a brief or filing a pleading. Maybe all the folks who said you weren't ready for prime time were right.

Every time I talk to Beebe staffers about how things are going, they cite poll numbers. Guess what guys -- time to stop doing that. Clean house, get on message, exert control, do what it takes. But if you blow this thing, in a year where Democrats are going to win big everywhere else, you have only yourself to blame.

Noember is a long ways off.
Lots of football games between now and then.
Thank goodness!

Frankly, the statistics is enough to scare Satan, provided Satan exists, out of anyone. Admittedly, trying to change such naive minds who live in babble land and believe fantasy galore is going to be an uphill battle.

So 83% of Arkansas believe valid marriage can only be between man and woman and not the union of two people who will provide the best parenting?

Then 75% of Arkansans believe the Bible is literally true -- - You are willing to spend your life looking for little loop-holes in the scientifically established age of the Earth (4.55 billion years), but you find nothing wrong with believing dates recorded by pre-historic tribesmen sitting in their tents and guessing that the Earth is a couple of generations old.

So the majority of Arkansans (69%) say election ballots should be printed in English only -- Why? Had you rather not see a balanced & fair election or one filled with hate of your fellow man -- It appears Arkansans are still in the 1860's mentally.

Of course the statistic that really a persons mind is " 55% define their position on abortion as pro-life" which can only mean "Kill the Mommie" save the glob!

While modern science, history, geology, biology, and physics have failed to convince Arkansans otherwise, some idiot rolling around on the floor speaking in "tongues" may be all the evidence you need to prove Christianity

I have to admit, I have never seen the advocacy of English as equating to hating your fellow man. Are the French also guilty if they insist on everything being in French.

Is this the 'Brave new world'?

I can't wait for the poll tonight.

It will have Rod gaining quickly. Rod will have 10+points on his way to victory in November!!!

A 2% vote for Lendell and a 2% vote for Bryan leave Beebe holding a bag. He better think his pandering to bigots and his believing that school kids should be taught creationism under a new name was worth it.

Let's hope Beebe is watching. Maybe then he'll take his underqualified campaign manager and throw him in a pepetual meeting and hire a junk yard dog to take on the ethically challenged Hutchinson. Come on Mike, plenty of time to pull out the guns and strap on some balls.

Rod with 10+
His message is getting out to the real people of Arkansas!!

SPEAK TO TRUTH TO POWER!!
MAKE A REAL DIFFRENCE!!

VOTE ROD FOR GOV!!

I heard the Fox Poll coming out tonight will show Rod Bryan with 11% of the vote. Any word on that?

Tonight on fox 16 Arkansas will see that Rod Bryan's message is getting out. I predicet the poll will show Rod Bryan with over 10% of the vote having spent less than$3,000. Why? Because Arkansas is ready for a change, and they are fixing to get it.

This poll said 46% of Arkansans support Bush? That's 10 points more than any other poll shows.

Interesting percentages, Rod Fan and R4G 12:57. Any poll taken from here out should, indeed, include all the candidates who will be on the ballot. -Even if the 500 voters polled exclude Rod, it should still be reported. Reporting the whole truth is called reporting the news. Reporting the half truth is called engineering the news.

Our only hope.

Rod Bryan.

SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER!

Tonight 10+. you will see, all of Arkansas will see.

These "Rod" fans should probably be tested for illegal substances after the predictions they have made. Howver, I would not be upset if they are correct. That would mean a large lead for Asa.

This poll is so out of whack. Ernkie Oakleaf is crazy. Every poll has this race neck and neck and Ernie has a twenty one point lead for one of the candidates.

BWDIC said: [
"...You are willing to spend your life looking for little loop-holes in the scientifically established age of the Earth (4.55 billion years), but you find nothing wrong with believing dates recorded by pre-historic tribesmen sitting in their tents and guessing that the Earth is a couple of generations old. "]

Clearly there are many mysteries concerning the creation of the universe. When God created the earth and universe, there is no reason why he could not have used older materials. Most of us believe that God is much older than the earth. God's powers and abilities are beyond our understanding. Many of us believe that intelligent design and evolution can coexist. I kind of like the idea of Democrats evolving from monkeys too.

Personally I am more impressed with the qualifications of Mike Beebe than Jimmie Lou Fisher. While Jimmie Lou is certainly a nice little old lady, I prefer to have a more educated candidate. When we expect our teachers to have college degrees, it seemed odd to have a governor candidate with a high school education.

I expect Bill Clinton will do some last minute campaigning for Mike Beebe. Finally we will have a governor from the northeast who can put pressure on the great Fayetteville University to play ASU in football.
With FU's huge endowment from the Walmart donations, money can be more fairly distributed to the other schools in the state. I suspect UA will be playing ASU in Little Rock every year.

ha ha ha ha ha

Must mean Beebe's up by 21, can't be any other reason that some maroon would post with a sig like that.

It could be Beebe's first contested race showing... not the smoothest campaign I've ever seen.

But Asa is evil and people will see that.

General Beebe can't win either way he plays it--progressives don't trust him now and the holy roller snake handlers want a real Republican. In some places, a finely tuned 'populist' approach might lead to a catch-as-catch-can victory, but not where 75% of the population believes in Noah's Ark. You're screwed, Mike!

Oakleafs poll is so inconsistent - not only does it not comport even remotely with every other poll conducted but it contradicts itself by saying Rod gets 11 percent and still puts Beebe up by 21. What a joke

i'm not worried about the Gov's race. Not yet, anyway. Granted, the other six races are still on lockdown. And with the significant money advantage Beebe will have regarding TV time, this is still Beebe's to lose. But it's about damn time he starts winning it.

And anyone who thinks Rod Bryan will ever pull more than 1 percent is out of their goddamn minds. I wish Rod would get of the blog and go ride his bike.

Beebe will be outspent on TV - watch and be amazed.

I feel confident Beebe will win, despite all that jazz about I.D. and gay foster parents that absolutely wore me out last week...

I think it is becoming increasingly clear that the DPA has a clown leading the grand march into the November elections. Otherwise, A$a! wouldn't be close...this shouldn't be turning into the contest it is...

I thought Oakleaf was one of the most respected pollsters in these parts. But something doesn't jive.

He is respected by no one with any political sense. He is used because he is cheap.

General Beebe, the devil is right behind you. Don't let him catch you.

in all of these 'educated' blogs,not one of you has mentioned the POWER OF PRAYER.it is available to every candidate, and their constuients. do not underesimate the power of senior citizens.some of us don't have money, but what we do have is PRICELESS., we have FAITH. MIKE BEEBE knows this because we have told him.we are all GOD'S children, the choice is up to HIM!

Awww - the "Family" blog is crying that the Oakleaf poll is flawed - sucks to be them.

Here's what they are saying:
look back at Ernie Oakleafs track record.

We hear a rumor that Stephens Media will release a poll conducted by Ernie Oakleaf (democrat lackey) which shows Mike Beebe beating Asa by 21 points. As if that is not grounds to classify the poll as completely unreliable, this same poll shows Rod Bryan garnering 11 percent of the vote. Ernie - next time we suggest you poll outside of the hillcrest area.

Every poll - from Rasmussen, Zogby, and even Mike Beebe's own polls show this race a statistical dead heat and yet there is ole Ernie with a 21 point margin.

Here is a brief reminder of one poll Ernie conducted just a few weeks before Bud Cummins lost to Vic Snyder by a few hundred votes:

Cummins trailing Democrat by 25% points

Abstract: The poll, commissioned by KATV-TV, Channel 7, Little Rock, and done by Opion Dynamics (Ernie Oakleaf) shows Cummins, a Little Rock businessman trailing State Senator Vic Snyder by 25 points.
Date: 10/11/1996
Section/Page: 4B
Byline: ELIZABETH CALDWELL, Democrat-Gazette Capitol Bureau

This terrible poll may have cost Bud the election which is exactly what we suspect Ernie hope his bogus poll would do.

Sure guys - Ernie would do something like that - Your M.O., kill the messenger.

Speaking of polls: We were just polled about the special election in September (we assume for the jail tax, but the pollster didn't mention it). Do we plan to vote? Yes. For or against? Against.

We are people who do not automatically vote against a tax, but we're not convinced this tax is necessary, and no one has spent much time trying to convince us that it is. The perpetual agin'ers will be out in force. Someone needs to start stirring up some support.