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About counting chickens

Paul Krugman expresses what I've been feeling -- a touch of pessimism about the mid-term election -- despite all the reasons for a strong Democratic vote -- on account of the Republican firewall, dealt with so well in Tom Hamburger's new book, "One Party Country."

Let’s talk about Congressional arithmetic.

Unless the Bush administration is keeping Osama bin Laden in a freezer somewhere, a majority of Americans will vote Democratic this year. If Congressional seats were allocated in proportion to popular votes, a Democratic House would be a done deal. But they aren’t, and the way our electoral system works, combined with the way ethnic groups are distributed, still gives the Republicans some hope of holding on.

The key point is that African-Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, are highly concentrated in a few districts. This means that in close elections many Democratic votes are, as political analysts say, wasted — they simply add to huge majorities in a small number of districts, while the more widely spread Republican vote allows the G.O.P. to win by narrower margins in a larger number of districts.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that because of this “geographic gerrymander,” even a substantial turnaround in total Congressional votes — say, from the three-percentage-point Republican lead in 2004 to a five-point Democratic lead this year — would leave the House narrowly in Republican hands. It looks as if the Democrats need as much as a seven-point lead in the overall vote to take control.

Comments

Rather than bitch about the way the districts are drawn, wouldn't a real academic ask why having black skin automatically makes you a dem?

Dem Control Might Help Economy, WSJ.com Survey Finds
Democrats wins in November might boost the economy, economists in the latest WSJ.com survey found.

Most economists said the economy would perform best in the coming years if Democrats take control of at least one chamber of Congress. Only 12 of the 35 who answered the question said the economy would perform best under continued Republican control of the House and Senate. The best scenario, the economists said, would be Democratic control of the House only. The economists were almost evenly split over whether the stock market would perform better with a continued Republican lock on Congress or some measure of Democratic control.

"The economy is doing very well," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics Inc. However, it "would do better if the geopolitical side wasn't depressing Americans and injecting caution in business sentiment. The psyche of Americans is surprisingly low. New blood can improve sentiment."

When asked what the new Congress should make its top priority, economists indicated their top two choices were health care and Social Security. Those two issues represent the difficulty of the aging U.S. population and growing entitlement spending. However, there wasn't much optimism that much would be done to take on the issues in the near-term. "There just isn't the political will to address these problems," said Dana Johnson of Comerica Bank. - Phil Izzo

Read the related article or see full data of the WSJ.com survey
Video: WSJ's David Wessel discusses the survey, noting expectations for economic growth, unemployment and Fed policy for the rest of the year.
Election graphics: Where the Senate races stand and a look at the issues and candidates in 13 congressional districts.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2006/10/12/dem-control-might-help-economy-wsjcom-survey-finds/

It's very simple. Assuming the election will be honest, which is a giant assumption, if people vote the Republicans back in, America deserves what happens next. A lot of good people had to join the ride as Germany fell into a dictatorship in the 1930s. The same my befall my family despite my best efforts. It's the luck of the draw and sometimes you lose.

For the last 30 years the American people have applauded greed, cut throat business deals, sneaky moves, and the collecting of bone crushing power. Nothing happened when the Republicans started redrawing congressional districts to ensure their next victory. No one hollered when state legislators had to fly to Oklahoma in an effort to stop the unfair redistricting of Texas. We snickered and let it pass. It was DeLay doing his damnedest and we let it go.

Somehow we've corrupted the Horatio Alger story of rags to riches. We admire rags to incredible wealth attained by any measure these days. And that ruins the whole pie.

Honesty is looked on as naivety, principles have been replaced by a group agenda. And it's impossible for a single good man or woman to win an election without teaming with a powerful evil element. Then they have to face push polling, outright lies and smears.

When Reagan killed the FCC Fairness Doctrine it made it possible for any lie to be told and left unchallenged. The Swiftboaters are a perfect example. That was the end of truth and American civility. It's been all downhill ever since.

Our last chance comes this November and if blow it, we'll only have ourselves to blame.

"Rather than bitch about the way the districts are drawn, wouldn't a real academic ask why having black skin automatically makes you a dem?"

WTF?
Why complain about partisan attempts to destroy democratic representation? Asking leading questions that not only imply your own moral superiority but at the same time demagogue both the learned and black people is the preferred manner of elevating the public discourse.


"The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots." H. L. Mencken

Complaining about the democratic system is not the way. The country moved to the right partially based on a disappointment with liberal politics and policies.

The main reason we integrated the schools is because we could not, would not integrate neighborhoods. Affluent blacks integrated, poor ones made up voting blocks for black candidates and welfare policies. It was a workable solution in a liberal majority but now we pay a price for short term solutions.

Nixon to China. Only Dems can reform welfare, social security, and medicaid/medicare.

The love affair with the right is about to end either before or after the election. For everyone's sake, I hope it is before. But, if the left takes it as a return to the past it won't last long or produce much.

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