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Dems optimistic, but guarded

The New York Times writes about Democrats anticipating positive outcomes in the November elections. It's due more to multiplying Republican problems than to anything the Democrats are doing. For that reason, the Democrats are worried that the Republicans could still turn their fortunes around in the next couple of weeks.

For Democrats these days, life is one measure glee, one measure dread and one measure hubris. If they are as confident as they have been in a decade about regaining at least one house of Congress — and they are — it is a confidence tempered by the searing memories of being outmaneuvered, for three elections straight, by superior Republican organizing and financial strength, and by continued wariness about the political skills of President Bush’s senior adviser, Karl Rove.

Mr. Rove has made it clear that he considers Democratic optimism unjustified, predicting that his party’s cash advantage and get-out-the-vote expertise will dash Democratic dreams yet again. And Democrats say they welcome every passing dawn with relief, fearful that the next one will bring a development that could fundamentally alter the nature of the race, like the re-emergence of Osama bin Laden on election eve, which is what happened in 2004. ...

Still, Democratic ebullience could be found in all corners of Washington over the past few days. It was palpable at social and work gatherings, where Democrats traded gossip about how big a Democratic majority in the House could be; in Capitol Hill conference rooms, where Democrats were preparing transition plans (under orders to keep them quiet); and in offices of Democratic strategists and pollsters, who were drawing up growing lists of Republicans who might be vulnerable.

“I feel better than I ever have,” said Representative Louise M. Slaughter, a Democrat from upstate New York. “I think we have the best chance to take over simply because of the pileup of disasters.”

Stanley B. Greenberg, who was the White House pollster for President Bill Clinton in 1994 when Republicans shocked Democrats by capturing the House, commissioned a poll recently and e-mailed it around town with a single-word headline: “Meltdown.” In an interview, Mr. Greenberg said, “I don’t see how we can lose the House; I don’t think it’s even close.” ...

Democratic candidates in districts that had been considered long shots are now pleading with Mr. Emanuel’s committee to send money their way. And some leading Democrats, among them Mr. Greenberg, are urging Mr. Emanuel to seize the moment by expanding the field in which Democrats are competing, saying the party has a chance to cement a big lead in the House in November.

This argument has worried some Democratic strategists, who warn that an excess of exuberance could press party leaders into making decisions that may siphon resources from closely fought races and risk the Democrats’ advantage. “On the House side, it makes sense to be focusing on 25 seats to win 14, not 50,” said Steve Rosenthal, a political and labor consultant with close ties to the party, who described many Democrats as “overenthused.”

Comments

What many of us still realize is the Republicon schemes to supress the vote, to deny the vote to tamper with election machinery which resulted in the worst disaster monkey in this nations history occupying the White House while his handlers run the nation into unprecedented debt and international disgrace.

Oh habits do not die easily as this KOS blog indicates:
Blackwell purged Ohio Voter Rolls Oct 1st.- Vote Early.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/18/85915/109

Yes, Lwood there is a great danger, not that suddenly the Republicans are going to start doing everything right. What the NY Times politely leaves out is the CHEAT factor that every voter in America knows is out there and has been out there since 2000.

A sloppy steal in 2000 was followed by a much more skillful steal in 2004. Now the Republicans have had 2 more years to hone their skills at CHEATING. Mr. Blackwell is on the move early this year, no doubt following Karl Roves marching orders. Nearly every month has revealed a new doubt about Diebold and all electronic voting. I figure our chances for an honest election is about on par with Nicaragua.

The same circuits and software that keep you almost winning at the Casino will also fix the vote any ole way Rove wants it. I'm not sure what right the average voter has of showing up at the polling places with ball bats and staying all day and all night to watch for CHEATING. Would we recognize electronic CHEATING if we saw it? I dunno?

The crooked bastards are not going to just lay down and let us win a fair election. They've worked too hard for too many years to grab all the power and their not going to just hand it over and go home. Hitler didn't play fair, his modern American counterparts will not play fair either because the goal was and is the same. Total domination of this country and then the world!

We must start at home and see that no Republicans are elected locally or on a statewide basis. There is no way to tell how low on the totem pole Rove's orders reach. I'm not so sure our Mayor doesn't get secret instructions from DC....that's how bad it is.

The future of our planet hinges on the November 7th vote. If we don't get rid of the bad guys then, we never ever will.

Thanks alot, dbi, for nailing my fears. God help us if the mid-terms are stolen.

Granted, the Republican warchest is brimming with gold and their organizing skills are sharper than ever. But too many Americans see what is going on for many elections to be honestly won by Republicans.

Rove's confidence scares the Dickens out of me.

I expect lots of activity from the Republican machine between now and the 7th of next month.

Watch for the Terror Indicator to shoot to purple (or whatever is on top). Watch for more terror cells to be "uncovered" by our slick Intelligence Agencies. Watch for more arrests of "known terrorists" to be paraded. Watch for gas prices to fall to new recent lows. Watch for scandalous (possibly false) news releases about Democratic corruption. Watch for fear propaganda targeting the protection of God and Guns, and against Gays.

It's so ugly now I can hardly look out the window, but it's only going to get worse over the next 16 days.

God help us get our country back.

Here's a DrudgeFlash Repuglican rebuttal from Barron's with a truly base assumption.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash7.htm

"BARRON'S COVER Survivor!The GOP Victory By JIM MCTAGUE
... Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well...Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it. Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race EXAMINATION OF CAMPAIGN-FINANCE DATA -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. ..."

I won't pardon the HUBRIS (exaggerated pride or self-confidence). but look at the rationale used to predict Repuglican retention of both houses, "EXAMINATION OF CAMPAIGN-FINANCE DATA." While more campaign funds can help a candidate, it is very sad that any U.S. political party or analysts believe that U.S. elections are won and lost solely on money.

Also, DBI, even if the midterms do reverse the course of the country, the bad guys wil not go away. We have a long hard task ahead for the Republic to recover from the Bush administration.

Please, everyone think and vote your conscience on November 7th, many lives and the fate of our Republic depend upon it.

Pardoning the hubris has been one of our biggest problems.

I don't hear any way...please?

Jawin' and jawin' and friggin' jawin'...

that's what I hear...

Quote whoever or pray or whatever...just be nice...

dbi do you think ray would know what to do if the rethuglicans told him what his marching orders were ? He has stayed in office cause the mayor of ft smith does nothing but cut ribbons and kiss old ladies in nursing homes. and its a good thing cause he would fuck up much more than that.

I dunno if the Democrats have anyone inspired by God as is Rumsfeld:

October 20, 2006

MIAMI (AFP) - The top US general defended the leadership of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, saying it is inspired by God.

"He leads in a way that the good Lord tells him is best for our country," said Marine General Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Rumsfeld is "a man whose patriotism focus, energy, drive, is exceeded by no one else I know ... quite simply, he works harder than anybody else in our building," Pace said at a ceremony at the Southern Command (Southcom) in Miami.

Rumsfeld has faced a storm of criticism and calls for his resignation, largely over his handling of the Iraq war.

But he got a strong show of support from the military establishment at Thursday's ceremony, where Navy Admiral James Stavridis took over Southcom's command from General Bantz Craddock.

"He comes to work everyday with a single-minded focus to make this country safe," said Stavridis who was a senior aide to Rumsfeld before taking on the Southcom job.

"We're lucky as a nation that he continues to serve with such passion and such integrity and such determination and such brilliance," said Stavridis, 51.

As head of Southcom, Stavridis will be responsible for military cooperation with Latin American countries, and will be in charge of the Guantanamo US military base in Cuba where more than 400 "war on terror" detainees are being held.

Craddock, who was named supreme commander of allied forces in Europe, hailed the role Southcom has played.

"Today I believe that we can say we were successful in our efforts and contributed to ensuring our nation's security through support on the global war on terror, and encouraged regional cooperation to enhance the security and stability in the region," he said.

"Would we recognize electronic CHEATING if we saw it? I dunno?"

First of all, you won't see it. A judge ruled a few years back that the innerworkings (software) of electronic voting devices are "proprietary" in nature and must be protected from outside scrutiny.

I think that ruling could be overcome by having everyone of the software auditors take one of those things which Dick Cheney has become famous for: an oath.
Republicons are gonna work their base but the dirty tricks squad will be doing double time for sure.

I hope DNC chairman Howard Dean has set aside enough of a lawyers fund and has jets awaiting at the ready to deliver high-powered lawyers from jurisdiction to jurisdiction....that's in the Republicon game plan.
_

Yes, the elections are getting ugly. Did anyone expect anything less? Last night, all of the Mike Beebe signs were torn down by vandals here in my little corner of SEArk.

My take on that is that the Repbublicans are getting scared. When they begin resorting to vandalism of the opposition's signage, you know that they are desperate....desperation borne out of frustration knowing they are hopelessly behind and not getting any traction from their sickening attacks.


If the famous Iowa Electronic Market holds true then we should drop some of our anxiety. They are saying that the House Republican bundle (market) is losing big time. Check it out.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_HOUSE06.cfm

I saw a CNN report earlier tonight regarding how easy it is to tamper with the electronic voting machines.
A good hacker can rig a machine to report the winner in any given election.
I am voting early, on a paper ballot.

zonker, I don't know how long you've been away from the Fort, but there may be one Democrat in the whole of the City administration. I think it's a crying shame that our mayor and city directors do not have to claim a party affiliation.

With the exception of grumpy old Bill Maddox, I think all the rest of them are card carrying GOP. The president of our school board is so far rightwing Christian that she floats about 3 feet off the ground at all times cause she's so near self-rapture.

Mayor Ray has actually drawn 2 opponents this election, which I think is a first. One is a nut and the other a total unknown so I'm sure Mayor Ray is sure to get a 24th term, or whatever it is.

He's not a bad Mayor because he is an expert ribbon cutter and anyone over 80 will find him at their birthday party with a 2 minute proclamation and a handful of rose petals and zoom....he makes a exit the Lone Ranger would be jealous of. Between you and me, it's our form of city government that stinks to high heaven. We'll forever be in NWA's dust as long as we're saddled by a clique of uptight amateurs who pass the buck so often our last 2 city managers have gone off the deep end and were chased out of town by men in white coats swinging butterfly nets.

Since Fort Smith has been Republican so far back that it was spelled Whig, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a darling of the White House. We have more millionaires per capita than any other town in Arkansas.....unless Rogers has recently passed us up. Our Republicans are of the Oliver Cromwell type, gray, humorless, money guarders of the first order and of course heavily washed in the blood of the lamb. But as I've said, a number of them have told me personally they will not be voting at all next month. I could kiss them, except they're so gray and humorless ya know.

Another encouraging note, it appears vacant lots are very political this election. Very few yard signs, more Beebe than Asa!, more Gunner than any one else. But boy.....vacant lots are out in force this time around. I think the fact that there are few signs of any kind in yards means everyone and his dog are sick unto death of politics and politicians.

The last 10 years should have convinced us that crack dealers, hookers and bookies are 15 levels above anyone who would dip their toe in politics. Can anyone name one glorious moment a politician has given us in the last 10 years? I think not.

I've thrown my medicine in the trash so I will be bright eyed and armed to the teeth the next 16 days. We've got half a month to save the world.

Mothers with 10 year olds better think about their babies dying in Iraq 8 years from now. Fathers under 50 better worry about being drafted and sent off to war. If the Republicans win next month, it's GAME OVER.

dbiyou have to admit baker is smarter than the previous mayor. i haven't lived there for 30 years, i talk to ft smith several times a week and have family there. i learned my young adulthood at the iron espically during rodeo week and probably know 90% of the people you are referring to that are native ft smith people. it is the most conservative town in arkansas. ray baker taught both me and my wife. i truly love ft smith and hate to see what is happening to its economy with the loss of its manufacturing base. they are not going to not be able to save it with the current city government and national gov. they need urban professionals to come in and try to save the town and have not been able to do it. but mike huckabee has made a lot of trips to japan to try to get truck plants to marion when he isn't in iowa. ft. smith would be a better location cause of a better educated work force.

Guys,
Let tell you I realize Fort is old line conservative, but, Benton County has you beat. It includes the little industrial-Penecostal town of Siloam Springs (home of John Brown U), and Rogers and Wally's home, Bentonville, plus a few more small farming towns. Bella Vista or Viagra Falls has a sprinkling of liberals who retired there from the Midwest but they are far outnumbered by the Rwingnuts who retired there.

There are a few retired algebra teachers who have elaborate plans on how to privatize the sidewalks.
Huge crowds have gathered to protest the wet vs. dry issue mostly from Siloam.

I have a fiftyish friend in Bentonville who in the last ten years has done well in real estate. She commented at one company gathering about Bush's poor record and the company owner told her to promptly clean out her desk and get out. As she was packing her stuff the fortyish owner was chewing her out saying Bush made all these real estate sales possible..yada yada..and she had no business in real estate with her views. She laughed at him and went immediate to another agency of mostly women and hired on.
_

Lwood
Thanks for the Iowa markets link. I haven't seen anything about it since some didiot was on CNN back in Sept touting the 'hold' line. And in fact it was going 'hold' back then, but now has entirely switched.

I just hope some of those betting 'hold' or 'gain' are doing so out of some political allegiance to the Repukes. I want to see them lose their money - bit time.

"A tyrant must put on the appearance of uncommon devotion to religion. Subjects are less apprehensive of illegal treatment from a ruler whom they consider god-fearing and pious. On the other hand, they do less easily move against him, believing that he has the gods on his side."-- - Aristotle

Someone said that Fort Smith was "old line conservative." I wish that were the case. But, I believe that they are "new" conservatives washed in the lamb, instead.

I'd give anything for old line conservatives to be in control.

That being said, I am afraid that in this election, the country loses either way: if the right wing loses it's power in the election, I'll bet there'll be a backlash. And the backlash will come in a violent form led by right wing Christian Conservatives. They'll just go underground and become terrorists...there I said it. If the right wing keeps it's power, liberals, gays, minorities and intellectuals will fare horribly. And so will Iran, Iraq, and anyone else this Carribean pirate administration deems worthy. And liberals will only put up with so much more...

So, I predict (unless someone can convince me otherwise, and I hope they do) that we are in for high winds and falling hail either way.

"...Rumsfeld is "a man whose patriotism focus, energy, drive, is exceeded by no one else I know ... quite simply, he works harder than anybody else in our building," Pace said at a ceremony at the Southern Command (Southcom) in Miami."


If Rumsfeld's role in the Iraq fiasco is indicative of him having the most 'focus, energy and drive' of anyone else in the Pentagon...we're REALLY screwed. And, anytime someone throws out 'feel good' crap like 'most patriotic' and/or 'works hardest,' it's usually because every other 'tangible' indicator of competency or progress is lacking...so we get the 'but he's a good guy' lines. Well I don't care if Rumsfeld/Bush/Cheney are the gifts from God they claim to be...ultimately they are the epitomes of incompetence and failure. The only thing they've been successful at is grabbing hold of power...and never letting go (even if it takes a few decades for something like a Vietnam redo).

"Sat Oct 21, 7:06 PM ET

BERLIN - Ex-Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder, whose second term was marked by vehement opposition to the war in
Iraq, described in an advance copy of his memoirs how he was suspicious of
President Bush's constant references to his Christian faith.

While meetings with Bush at that time were friendly, Schroeder said he could not reconcile himself with the feeling that religion was the driving force behind many of Bush's political decisions."

"What bothered me, and in a certain way made me suspicious despite the relaxed atmosphere, was again and again in our discussions how much this president described himself as 'God-fearing,'" Schroeder wrote, adding he is a firm believer in the separation of church and state."

"We rightly criticize that in most Islamic states, the role of religion for society and the character of the rule of law are not clearly separated," Schroeder wrote. "But we fail to recognize that in the USA, the Christian fundamentalists and their interpretation of the Bible have similar tendencies."

zelda, Ex-Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder is also worried about the Republican neo-con God Squad. I suggest right-wingers go to Super Wal-Mart and load up a couple of shopping carts and when they get to the checkout counter tell the girl that God is paying for it and then run to the door pushing your groaning carts.

Doing that is every bit as stupid as governing by God. The words of God these people say they are hearing have more to do with that large double anchovy pizza they had last night than it does with some unproven supernatural power.

We really really need to grow up. Cartoons are for kids, not for adults in high positions of authority.

From TPM Cafe, here's news on the midterm Republican attack/SwiftBushing to reverse the Democratic Pary lead.

"[T]he past couple days have seen a predictable escalation in the outrageousness of Republican attacks. The RNC tells people to vote Republican unless they want Al Qaeda to attack again; the NRCC alleges in an ad so ridiculous that 3 stations have chosen not to run it that NY-24 challenger Michael Arcuri (D) made calls to a sex hotline; House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R) says that if the Democrats win they'll try to create a Department of Peace; Northup, R-Ky., said Yarmuth lacks the ethical standards to serve in public office because he repeatedly misled voters about how his campaign signs and door hangars were made, failed to pay taxes on his campaign workers' salaries, then dismissed questions about both; IL-06 challenger Peter Roskam (R) implies at a campaign rally Friday that Arabs have an interest in seeing his opponent Tammy Duckworth (D) win the election; the NRSC employs a fake naked Playboy playmate in ad against Harold Ford, Jr. (D); and the GOP assiduously tries to link WI-08 challenger Steve Kagen (D) to a convicted serial killer and child rapist. And that's all in the past like, 3 days."

"...I have come to the conclusion that Republicans will do anything to win an office except get the most votes!"
Bill Maher

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