Arkansas Blog: Poll: A$a in the lead!?!

According to this (liberal) website with a list of recent polling, a new Zogby Poll puts A$a up over Beebe 48.2-45.3.

It is from the Wall Street Journal Battleground poll, in which participants select into a panel from which the sample is drawn. The commentary suggests Hutchinson is benefitting from a surge among the Republican base and that Hutchinson enjoys a 14-point lead among independents, a finding we find hard to credit.

The result is certainly what's known in the trade as an "outlier" -- but I suspect Repubs will be as ready to embrace it as Democrats are ready to reject it, given Arkansas Poll, Opinion Research, Rasmussen, ASU and Survey USA polls with decidedly different outcomes.

Zogby methodology is on the jump. (In Ark., the margin of error is 4.3 percent.)

ZOGBY STATEMENT ON METHODOLOGY

These polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company's Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.

Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.

Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 20 states (AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.8 to 4.4% percentage points. All polls track likely voters. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

Beginning Oct. 19, results include "leaning" voters -- those who are leaning toward a candidate but haven't yet committed. Respondents who answer "not sure" to "for whom would you vote" questions, are asked "if you had to choose today, who would you say you are leaning toward." Responses to the followup question are added to those from the initial question.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 26 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

For the overall party breakdowns shown on the governor and senate panels: Races that aren't being polled are assumed to stay in the current party's possession.

Until the candidate fields were narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls matched up multiple candidates in each state and identified some of the strongest candidates from each party. Beginning Sept. 28, 2006, poll results shown reflect major party and third-party candidates. Results for the candidates polling third place or below in any given matchup are shown only if one of those candidates in a particular match polls 5% or higher.

This graphic highlights a sampling of matchups for each race. In some cases, Zogby has polled additional matchups that aren't included in the graphic. Full polling results are available from Zogby.

Comments

When one poll shows results that are opposite from all the others, it must certainly be questioned. But just the mention of this sort of "hope" will probably send quite a few Republicans to the polls who otherwise might have thought, why bother.

On the other hand, it will help bring out Democrats who otherwise might have thought, we've got it won so I can skip going to vote.

It's bad news for the Green Party and the independent, as votes that may have gone to them as symbolic gestures will now be forced back to Beebe as being, perhaps, necessary to assure victory.

Posted by: Spirit | October 31, 2006 09:25 AM

Regardless of the accuracy, the fact that ANY poll can give that skunk the lead makes me nervous. Ive already voted, but spirit is right, all dems MUST get too the polls. Any idea how much press this poll is going to get?

Posted by: arkiepol | October 31, 2006 09:48 AM

IN a ZOGBY, Poll a person with AOL ISP service can vote 7 times each in thoses polls i feel its a SLAMMED POLL ZOGBY is not a VERY well controled Political polling LLP ........think this is a slammed GOP PUSH poll Only on the internet.........just my OPINION.....

Posted by: RLR | October 31, 2006 09:57 AM

For the sake of this state, RLR, i certainly hope you're right. Thanks for the info.

Posted by: arkiepol | October 31, 2006 10:12 AM

This poll is much closer to the actual number than the others, and all of you know it. Beebe sure does. If the other polls were very accurate, he wouldn't even be mentioning Asa.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 31, 2006 10:13 AM

That's right, Anonymou$...A$A!'s going to win!!

What a joke...

It must be that brilliant ad campaign exploiting children...

Oh...by the way, if you would like to see some constituent's reactions, check out the letters to the editor at the DoG...

Otherwise, get back to the campaign de$k...

Posted by: rosso | October 31, 2006 10:45 AM

"exploiting children" What a joke. Letters to the Editor are easily orchestrated. Please explain why Beebe is paying attention to Asa if he's so far ahead. I know things must be busy over at the campaign desk, for you.

Even if Asa doesn't win, what will you say when the final numbers are so vastly different from the ridiculous numbers you've been clinging to all this time?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 31, 2006 11:10 AM

Ask our good buddy Houston Dale about them "moral victories." From your words, you ae still being conciliatory about the race. Thanks.

There's only one poll that counts and it's coming next Tuesday. No use for the chicken counters to get all excited.

Political races, like assholes, always tighten up just before the end.

Posted by: Jake da Snake | October 31, 2006 11:17 AM

The poll is not reliable. Anyone can include themselves by subscribing to the polling email list, therefore the sample is not controlled. The Republicans have done a good job of making this information known and have made a concerted effort to get people to subscribe. Beebe will be our next governor.

Posted by: holycow | October 31, 2006 11:31 AM

I have a Republican friend who has been a Bush supporter until now. He is dismayed by the Bush White House operatives. He has voted early and told me he voted Democrat on everything except governor and voted for Lendall.

Posted by: Cato | October 31, 2006 11:36 AM

Yeah, the only polls that are reliable are the polls that show Asa behind by 15-30%.

Cato's anecdotal evidence proves it. We all know it must be true because he knows "a" Republican.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 31, 2006 11:42 AM

Any poll in which respondents self-select for inclusion is highly suspect. Furthermore, the difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error.

Posted by: NoZe | October 31, 2006 11:46 AM

Posted by: NoZe | October 31, 2006 11:50 AM

Posted by: NoZe | October 31, 2006 11:52 AM

Yeah.....and I grew a vagina in my sleep last night. This result is a mistake or Uncle Karl Rove is at work. He's figured out there is a segment of the population who can't sleep at night unless they think they are ALWAYS on the winning side.

I've never worried about being on the winning side, though I think about it every time I buy an OK Lottery ticket. But to some folks it's important and lots of them go out and buy white Chevy SUVs to prove they're winners. Good luck with that.

We must remember we are dead center in the Window of Dirty Tricks time before the next election. Anything and everything is possible. Except for people like nony who have no pit, the rest of us need to use the pit of our stomachs to separate facts from BS. No one, including Asa thinks he's leading Beebe.

It could be far fetched to think this report is actually a Democratic trick. Something to bring back the people who think it's going to be such a slam dunk for the Demos that they're thinking it won't hurt to vote for Jim Lendall or Rod Bryan. Democrats play tricks too, they just aren't as good at it as the Pubbies.

No matter, unless Uncle Karl can screw the results of the vote as easily as he can screw with polls, Mike Beebe will be the one sorting thru Jennings's gifts next January. Be on your toes! The Ugly has started.

Posted by: Deathbyinches | October 31, 2006 11:58 AM

So Mr. Holycow, are you saying that somehow the republican machine just in Arkansas has managed to influence the poll in their direction? Why hasn't the right wing conspiracy done the same for the senate races in New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland among others where its also a razor thin margin between candidates? Zogby has all those candidates down.

Posted by: Mr.Burns | October 31, 2006 12:46 PM

So the absence of Republican lies and trickery in one place means it exists no where else?

The Republican party sees nothing wrong with stealing an election. Call it a conspiracy, call it ethics, call it politics, call it whatever, just don't expect us to believe that the party behind Iraq, Katrina, torture, and Big Brother is so pure as to not cheat if they get the chance.

Posted by: FormerlyKnownAs... | October 31, 2006 02:08 PM

Mr. Burns-

One example would be the folks over at the ArkFam blog. They have linked to the Zogby poll numerous times and even encouraged conservatives to sign up for the poll.

Posted by: holycow | October 31, 2006 02:25 PM

DBI,

I can't speak to whether or not you grew a pussy last night, but, you clearly never had a pecker. Could it be anymore obvious that you are Jo Carson? Your writing style is so clearly feminine.
You're just bitter that you didn't get a chance to have me beat the hell out of you 5 years ago.

Yours,

John Boy

Posted by: John Boozman | October 31, 2006 05:18 PM

When I get done with my squatting and peeing, I'll get back to you on this John Boy....

Posted by: Deathbyinches | October 31, 2006 05:47 PM

I'm looking forward to hearing your explanations when the polls y'all choose to believe are blown out of the water.

Posted by: Anonymous | November 1, 2006 01:01 AM

Arkansas Blog

Poll: A$a in the lead!?!

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