Arkansas Blog

FROM RASMUSSEN REPORTS

New York Senator Hillary Clinton was First Lady of Arkansas before she was First Lady of the United States. That background puts her in a good position to capture the six Electoral College votes Arkansas will cast in Election 2008.

Clinton leads all Republican challengers in Arkansas by huge double digit margins. The closest GOP hopeful is Rudy Giuliani, but he trails Clinton by eighteen percentage points, 55% to 37%. Clinton leads Fred Thompson by nineteen points (55% to 36%), John McCain by 23 points (56% to 33%), and Mitt Romney by 32 points (60% to 32%).

Among women voters in Arkansas, none of the Republican candidates tops 34% support and none come within 20 points of Clinton. Clinton also leads all the Republicans among male voters in her former home state, although by somewhat smaller margins.

The potential for any Democrat to win any Southern state is significant. For Clinton, it is especially so given that she is a candidate with very high negatives. Nationally, more than 40% of voters say they will definitely vote against her in 2008. Recent polling found that 51% of voters in Oregon have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and, as a result, Republican candidates might be competitive there. That's a Blue State that has voted for the Democrat in every Presidential Election since 1988.

On the other hand, Clinton currently polls well in Michigan and reasonably well in Florida. Other recent general election polls have been conducted in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Ohio.

Overall, 65% of Arkansas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 33% say the opposite.

None of the Republicans come close. Giuliani is viewed favorably by 48%, Thompson by 42%, McCain by 38%, and Romney by 32%.

In Arkansas, 33% say that President Bush is doing a good or excellent job while 47% say poor.

Governor Beebe earns much better reviews—66% good or excellent and 4% poor.

Clinton leads all Democrats in the race for the Presidential nomination both nationally and in New Hampshire. She trails Giuliani in the most recent national telephone survey.