Arkansas Blog

Hillary will carry Arkansas unless she gets caught in a picture with the VP of the HRC accepting a Miss Gay America award in drag (or some other dumb effort to appease the base that loses the center). Since the base is quickly losing options and Hillary is smarter than the above, she gets the nomination and carries AR. However, she carries here on Yellow Dog numbers and residual Clinton organization that the rest of the South does not support. Fournier is right about the big picture (meaning she loses an election perhaps only Hillary could lose) but he is nuts to suggest she loses this state.

"..the popular Beltway media conventional wisdom that Hillary's high negatives make her a long-shot to carry Arkansas. "

It's not just Ark they project her "strong negatives" upon. It's the whole nation. Makes you wonder which of the FIVE major corporations who own 85% of the MSM she needs to find solace with. But, there's the internet and the Beltway Boys are so yesterday on the new medium.
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Perhaps I should wait till Ms zelda checks in (or whatever happened to Vegan for HIllary?)
note it is beltway BOYS.

How many times have I read that the single female vote could change any election in U.S.?
How many beltway BOYS are not boys?
Yesterday's debate- Hillary spoke to women as only a woman could do. Will it be effective? Wait and see.
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Plenty of women out there don't like Hillary for an assortment of reasons --- some valid, others not so much --- but I don't think any of these women are afraid of Hillary, not in the way so many neo-conservatives seem to be. All the neo-con harping about Hillary's high negatives is far too shrill, betraying a visceral fear of her.

i am wondering how many of these women who say they are not for hillary would vote for a democrat in any circumstances any way. it's kind of like the sweet looking ladies that were giving us the hand signals yesterday, i doubt if they would vote for her or any democrat at all. i did not realize there were that many cute young rethuglicans.

I think that it would take some type of a "macaca" moment to derail the Clinton nomination at this point, and that is just the type of mistake that her professional style of campaigning will never make. Her problems will occur in the general. Democrats need to keep in mind they are nominating the Democratic equivalent of Karl Rove for president. The groundswell of support for her opponent among a downtrodden republican base will be immense. The party should take Edwards and then keep the presidency for 8 years.

NO WAY SHE CAN WIN.
READ ON AND FIND OUT WHY. . .

She will lose the presidency because she is a woman. Polls consistently show that between 5-17% of the american public would never vote for a woman for President. And I guaranty that these polls are underpolling the true figure. Even if we take the polls numbers as true, that means between 12 million and 40 million potential votes lost simply because of her gender.

Even if you put 65% of these people in the Rebublican camp that still leaves to many potential democrats and independants that she can't get. Presidential elections today are decided by very thin margins. (2000 - Gore by 543,816; 2004 - Bush by 3,012,499) This adds up to bad news for Dems in '08 with Clinton.

http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Woman%20President.htm

The way I see it

Clinton 70% republican

Biden 60% republican

Obama 50% republican

Edwards
Dodd
Richardson 10 to 20% republican

Kucinich 90% Democrat 10% libertarian

Gravel is just Gravel

All republican candidates, except Ron Paul, are about 60% fascist and about 40% libertarian

Ron Paul is about 95% Libertarian (not to be confused with civil libertarian)

Clinton will probably win.. but what will we win? Capitulation to the whims of republicans 70% of the time, again.. Which means reduced but continued war.. It means civil liberties will be all but ignored (with nicer words). It means no child left behind will be redecorated, not scrapped. It means better judicial appointments. It means continued support of corporate power over people power..such as relying on insurance and big pharma companies as a part of our lack of health care. It means NAFTA and CAFTA policy will be extended. It means no chance for even a discussion of campaign finance reform, and on and on.

When Hillary is elected I will get out my scisors and cut the flag into a the shape of a triangle... and prepare to make nice with the Lieberman and Pryors of the world who prefer long slow suffering over quick massive death of democracy, like republicans. Either way, we all lose.

Lwood,

Women are 51% of the population and thus could win ANY election ANY time. But in reality getting all women (single or hitched) to do anything is just as impossible as getting all Blacks, Latinos, good o boys to do something enmass.

In reality single women are in various other voting blocks, ie fundy, lib, neo-con, pro-choice, pro-life etc. This probably explains why there has never been a woman president before. I don't get the impression that most women don't believe women are not presidential material.

Another thing, not in response to Lwood but somewhat related.

It is my observation that it is ignorant to try to assume that if one agrees with me on one issue that there is any increased chance one agrees with me on an unrelated issue. I am against the death penalty yet favor a woman's right to choose to continue a pregnancy or not. These are two completely unrelated issues. Some people can't fathom having these two views without being schizphrenic. For me though the death penalty is state killing and abortion is between a woman and her soul. Abortion is horrendous but I can't interject my beliefs into so personal a decision.

CH, I'll drink to that. May I buy you a cyber beer? cheers. *s*

Eureka,

I've seen several posts from folks who think Hillary (insert Pryor/Lincoln/Obama, etc.) is not "Democrat enough". You've run off some issues certainly that you think are Republican/Corporate/Whatever, but I'd really like to hear - if you could write the ten or twelve defining *positions* that describe a Democrat, what are they?

(I am coming from the "other side" but we have these same inter-faith disputes about what's an R and what's a RINO. I'm curious how you define a D.)

I think only a grainy Betamax tape of Hillary naked in bed kissin on Billy Jean King will keep Hillary out of the White House. That or an assassin's bullet.....and we know they're out there. What Brummett says pretty much says it all. She's too smart, too organized, too well funded and she's got Bill.

On top of that, her previous 8 years of experience in the White House has made her hide thicker than an elephant's. I think she's nuts to want to go thru all that again, this time in the pilot's seat....but so be it. Given a choice between any Republican vs Hillary......Hillary wins. She has started sticking that pro-universal health care line in front of all her other messages and that pleases me to no end. My family might have a house to live in after I die if we get universal health care.

Don't be worrying....we'll do just fine with 8 more Clinton years. I'd rather have Kucinich and take a hard left......but it won't happen in a million years, Dennis isn't electable. I'll be happy with Obama in the 2nd position and looking forward to 8 years of him after Hillary's out of office. We're a happier nation with Democrats in the White House.......and don't you forget it!

Democrats

Don't go soft on labor like Bill and others did with NAFTA etc.. George Bush Sr's idea
Don't treat women like slave dogs and tell them the government is the best decider in re her reproductive choices
Don't start wars for empire and oil
Dont drive the people to 11 trillion dollars in debt in 6 years
Dont capitulate to people who hate big government to the point that they run it into the ground to both prove a point and line their pockets
Don't torture anyone
Don't divide with bigotry
Don't watch desegregation of schools occur without fighting back
Dont appoint (or approve appointments) Federalists and other constitution hating judges or Atty Gens
Don't plan accept lowest taxation of the rich
Dont sit by in silence when fellow or former party members suggest we attack Iran with Nukes when the truth is plain to see for those who look past the top layer of lies... Iran neither has WMD, Nukes nor does most of Iran even dislike us.
Dont treat Habeas Corpus as a disposible option
Understands a strong middle class is what has always contributed to Americas greatness.
Thinks people should have more rights not corporations
Democrats listen to and respect their base not fear the oppositions base
Democrats established social security and other social protections from poverty and hunger..and still believe these are the best ways for government to serve the people... not for the people to serve the rich with nothing to show for it.
Democrats maintain infrastructure..like roads and bridges
Democrats dont kill criminals who are already captured and convicted
Democrats dont think the govt should determine what one does in their home nor dictate definitions of family
Democrats do diplomacy
Beieve in public service
Democrats demand competetive bids on contracts
Democrats make sure police and troops have plenty of bullets
Democrats prefer clean water and air
Democrats include energy and food costs when measuring inflation
Democrats support net neutrality
Support open and fair elections
Support higher education for as many as possible
Respect Science
Belive the earth is a bit older than Baghdad
Send men and women to the moon for the first time
Know how to build a fallen war torn nation back up
Support a fairness doctrine
Support the Arts
Say no to intrusive government .. Orwell is supposed to be a warning not a goal
Separate Church from State
Inspect mines and food and the workplace
Bring Arabs and Israelis to peace settlements... not supply one side with cluster bombs and quit even feeding the other side.
Consider the threat of global warming worthy of an alarm and perhaps changing our behavior
Understand public forests are not to be logged into oblivion...so people can camp and or hunt etc.. on public lands
Understand deregulation will bring out the worst in human/corporate behavior to much of the time
Don't build and use extremely expensive private militias...even hiring soldiers who used to serve under the worst of dictators
Honor a subpoena and show up when they get one
Respect the separation of powers

I could go on.. I would imagine the only people more frustrated with their party than Dems like me...are old school republicans... what happened to them? At least we have a very few genuine Democrats in congres and the senate...but very few. Old School Republicans... where are you?

Its why I harp on the dangers of Hillary so much because the center now lies way over in right field..and she is considered the center.. Bill barely pulled off DLC craftwork in his era due to several things... the dot boom on the economy... and the fact he kept capitulating to the right over and over to get along... but the right never gave an inch and jerked harder and firther right at every opportunity... so far right fascism is about the only thing for them to lean on.

The left and or Progressives... need to fight like dogs just to get this country somewhere back to a middle, imo. SOme of these fights need to be dramatic...like rejecting DLCers such as Hillary... debt is to high, population is aging fast, inflation and energy are real problems getting worse... and 50 million dont have health care.. countless others wont have it the day they actually try to use it.. We dont need to negotiate on this stuff... its the middle class's money and well being at stake...which is saying the country and democracy is as well.

Would enjoy hearing what you think republicans think of themselves these days...

[sorry, had to answer you in a bit of a rush..but appreciated the question]

DBI, Wanted to say I am trying my darnedest to hear you and others re the actual presidential vote...am not yet convinced..

Not going to let the MSM or polls take away my primary vote..no matter what the odds are.

Have not decided but its looking like Kucinich or Edwards if the primary were this week. It's wonderful to have a couple good choices for now.

I am dedicated to getting as many decent folks in the House as possible (push for a good senator where possible too)..thats where little people can have the most impact this time around...so I work on that several hours a day...have since the day after the election last year..

Eureka, we're not fighting because I'll take any of the Democrats....yes, even Joe Biden over what we have and what the Republicans are offering for '08. I'm just figuring it's Hillary Clinton and I might as well get used to it. I've never loved Hillary's personality or her temper, but as President her personality doesn't matter and assuming she'll get mad for the right reasons at the right people, her temper could be a plus.

I also think she is to the left of her husband and a lot more left leaning than she's going to show until she's safely elected. That of course pleases me. A bigger lie than Bush being intelligent is that in order to get elected in Arkansas or nationally you have to be conservative. That's how we got Mark Pryor who is every bit as right leaning and conservative as Tim Hutchinson. So boy....the jokes on us. A few more conservatives in office and our women will be wearing burkas.

Therefore, I am not at all bothered by your desire for someone other than Hillary leading the ticket. If you're right I'll be pleased. And I know if Hillary comes out on top you'll have no choice but to support her. Republicans are clones, their leader spits out a bad idea and they all drop in behind it. Democrats don't work that way and I'm thankful for it. Let em duke it out and may the best man or woman win.

>>In reality single women are in various other voting blocks, ie fundy, lib, neo-con, pro-choice, pro-life etc.<<
by Citizen Home

I could dig up the polls if I weren't taking some damn strong hydrocodine for dental pain which kept me away from Hillary's local appearance and off these pages. But I do recall most single women being pro lib, pro Demo. Do a search, I already have. That group is much more significant than most of "us guys" realize. It's also becoming more difficult to poll them because of the spreading use of cellular phones,which don't have listings. The last poll I saved was from pre '06 election which predicted single women households would vote D, which they did.
Bushco won some of them over with the fear-security thing Karl Rove exploited so well in '04. Now the the jig is up, show's over, and salaries are really stagnating and health care is getting worse.

Hillary is likely to join other pre-season number ones, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, and
Howard Dean. It is a long season, with alot of injuries, questionable officiating, and surprise
players that rise to the occasion.
If Hillary manages to get elected, and then re-elected, it wont say much good about our democracy. Twenty eight years governed by family dynasties.