Super Tuesday Sweepstakes

I've been communicating with a student at Washington and Lee University, my alma mater, which has a famous Mock Convention every presidential election year in which students try to replicate the out-party's presidential nominating convention to predict, in advance, the party's nominee. This year, it's the Democrats and they'll meet Jan. 25-26 at a session featuring a raft of Democratic speakers from Jesse Jackson to Sen. Jim Webb with former Rep. Charles Wilson in between.
The convention has failed at predicting the winner only once since 1948 -- in 1972, my mock convention year. Insurgent Teddy Kennedy forces hijacked the political science experiment with raw emotion. Jimmy Carter, who would win in 1976, was the keynote speaker. (A special prize to anyone who can identify the two young men riding on the Arkansas "float" in the 1972 Mock Convention parade on Lexington, Va.'s Main Street.)
The question of the hour for the Arkansas delegation is who will win the Arkansas Democratic primary. Percentage is also important. Delegates are parceled out proportionate to the vote, but candidates must get a 15 percent minimum to qualify.
So, prompted by that memory and to help the mock delegates, a contest:
$50 to the Blog reader who comes closest to predicting the percentage votes in the Arkansas primary Feb. 5 for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. We won't rate the "other" category, except by summary implication.
To be eligible, you must submit a guess by noon Monday. To collect, of course, you'll have to tell me, at least privately, your identity.
I'll start.
REVISED: On my morning walk, I decided I'd been irrationally exuberant about Edwards and not sufficiently exuberant about Obama. But I'll stick with these now, no matter what.
Clinton -- 52 percent
Obama -- 35 percent
Edwards -- 7 percent







Comments
Clinton - 56%
Obama - 29%
Edwards - 12%
Posted by: Jacob the Wrestler
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January 20, 2008 10:42 AM
Clinton - 55
Obama - 40
Edwards - 5
Posted by: JohnnieC
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January 20, 2008 10:47 AM
Seems like Edwards might be going in with no wins. He probably already knows he can't win. Hard to get excited about voting for another white male given our choices and their very similar policies!
Posted by: JohnnieC
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January 20, 2008 10:52 AM
Clinton -- 53%
Obama -- 32%
Edwards -- 10%
While we're predicting stuff, I'll go ahead and say I think it will be Clinton/Obama vs. McCain/Huckabee.
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 20, 2008 11:02 AM
Clinton 42
Edwards 38
Obama 20
Posted by: Earl Swagger
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January 20, 2008 11:02 AM
Clinton 54
Obama 32
Edwards 14
Posted by: Deathbyinches
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January 20, 2008 11:22 AM
Clinton 65
Obama 32
Edwards 3
And I'll donate my $50 to Max's favorite local charity.
I just don't see McCain picking Huck, Hugh...but then he's clearly willing to do ANYTHING to be president. I hope Clinton/Obama unite ...they'd be unstoppable...except there's that President-choosing Supreme Court of ours. Imagine presenting the first woman/minority Presidential team to the world...I'd be giddy! It would go a long way toward healing Monkeyboy's hateful, arrogant warmongering image. On the other hand...a Bush-loving warmonger and a religious nut would help the Osamas of the world by confirming that we have 'agendas' that are far removed from what we try to sell.
Posted by: zelda
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January 20, 2008 11:24 AM
zelda, maybe I'm just hoping McCain would pick the Huckter. He seems like more of a threat than any of the others in the running. I don't see him picking any of the others (in the race) as his running mate. Of course, I don't know squat. I'm not very good at handicapping horse races, and I thought Gore would be elected in 2000.
Incidentally, does anyone have stats on the number of running mates that have historically been selected from the pool of those who also ran?
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 20, 2008 11:37 AM
Clinton 45%
Obama 37
Edwards 13
I'll donate MY $50 to the bar tab when Max makes good on "the gathering!" ;>)
Posted by: Larry
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January 20, 2008 11:48 AM
I'm the ever pathetic opportunist. I'll wait till a few other AT blog notables log-in then will average and watch for the std deviation and some key slopes.
Posted by: eLwood
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January 20, 2008 12:04 PM
Clinton 59
Obama 36
Edwards 3
If I win.. 50.00 straight to Rebekah Kennedy's campaign
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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January 20, 2008 12:15 PM
If I were going to wager on McCains running mate today.. I would bet half the farm on Joe Lieberman.
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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January 20, 2008 12:18 PM
Clinton = 56
Obama = 39
Edwards = 5
Posted by: bent1985
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January 20, 2008 12:22 PM
Clinton 48
Obama 38
Edwards 14
I was going to surreptiously snag a Repub ballot so I could vote against the Huckster, but this morning as I was channel-surfing I came across a BETnetwork program. Some guy with greasy dreadlocks was interviewing Obama, and they were talking about how hip-hop could affect national policy. Honest to God!
Means another vote for John Edwards.
Posted by: Louie
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January 20, 2008 12:23 PM
hugh mann - Gore was elected by the people in 2000.. never forget that! Unless you are talking about the Supremes.
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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January 20, 2008 12:25 PM
"I'll donate MY $50 to the bar tab when Max makes good on "the gathering!" ;>)"--Louie
I like that charity.
So if Edwards drops out who gets his fans?
Posted by: zelda
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January 20, 2008 12:37 PM
FIFTY BUCKS! That's more'n I make in a MONTH! Considering that, I have put a great deal of thought into this. Here goes:
Hillary: 59%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 11%
The remaining 3% will, I believe, write in Mitch Mustain.
The above predictions are assuming my real prediction doesn't come to pass. To wit:
Some rebel flag waving, bible-thumping redneck will assassinate Obama. The REpugnikun mouthpieces will immediately point the finger at Hillary, effectively taking her out of the race, and Edwards will win by default. Conspiracy theorist? Who, me?
Posted by: RickBaber
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January 20, 2008 12:53 PM
Picture: Moses & Tucker
ARK. BLOG: Halfway there. Tucker is the tall fellow with long hair behind the Arkansas flag on the right. Who's the fellow in the white suit on his left?
Posted by: NorthCentral
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January 20, 2008 01:10 PM
Very close Louie, but I think you under-rated Arkansas Green and Libertarians.
Clinton 47%
Obama 42%
Edwards 7%
Donate the $50 to the Union Rescue Mission, please. I know some of my fellow Vietnam Veterans and maybe some Iraq Vets could use a warm meal and some help.
Posted by: docholliday
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January 20, 2008 01:13 PM
clinton 57
obama 24
edwards 13
Posted by: JD
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January 20, 2008 01:15 PM
Gawd, no idea,,,don't even know how to go to Oaklawn and place a bet on a horse,,,,,
'cept when I was little I remember men yelling, "Bet on the gray, bet on the gray,"
so, guess I'd vote on two faced gray head Lieberman.
Posted by: jazzy
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January 20, 2008 01:19 PM
Gosh, DocH,, break my heart....post a mailing address for the Union Rescue Mission.
Posted by: jazzy
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January 20, 2008 01:23 PM
I agree with Eureka Springs on McCain picking the serpent Lieberman as his running mate. I saw the little warhawk jerk rat lurking onstage behind McCain during a S.C. rally the other evening.
Posted by: Earl Swagger
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January 20, 2008 01:28 PM
Clinton 60%
Obama 25%
Edwards 12%
Posted by: Old Blue Eyes
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January 20, 2008 01:29 PM
Earl, The link at my name (very short youtube) ought to put to rest (as if HC's fund raising support for Pryor isn't more than enough) what kind of vision for congress she has.
Here's hoping zelda and Gaddis see this too..
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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January 20, 2008 01:48 PM
Losermann as McCain's running mate does sound more probable than the Huckster. And yes, Eureka, we did elect Gore. Poor word choice on my part.
I've been googling trying to find some stats on running mate selection trends, but haven't found much yet. I'll keep looking.
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 20, 2008 01:50 PM
Re stats on running mates,,,,check c-span.org....they had the full run down this morn.
Posted by: jazzy
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January 20, 2008 01:56 PM
Zelda: Louie may be a legend, but no fair attributing my largess to him...or her.
Posted by: Larry
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January 20, 2008 02:51 PM
Clinton: 42%
Obama: 39%
Edwards: 15%
Posted by: rosso
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January 20, 2008 03:22 PM
Lest we forget about "running mates".....
GEORGE WILL: McCain's 'Maverick' Is Dems 'Mainstream'
The Washington Post ^ | 1/20/08 | George Will
Posted on 01/20/2008 12:58:10 PM PST by Servant of the Cross
In 2004, one of John McCain's closest associates, John Weaver, spoke to John Kerry about the possibility of McCain running as Kerry's vice presidential running mate.
In "No Excuses," Bob Shrum's memoir of his role in numerous presidential campaigns, including Kerry's, Shrum writes that Weaver assured Kerry that "McCain was serious about the possibility of teaming up with him," and Kerry approached McCain. He, however, was more serious about seeking the 2008 Republican nomination.
But was it unreasonable for Kerry to think McCain might be comfortable on a Democratic ticket? Not really.
Posted by: eLwood
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January 20, 2008 03:24 PM
Let's get serious about this $50 from Max. If it's not going to help Paris or Brittany out of their legal probs, then I want it to go to my own memorial fund. Last month the UA alumn mag reported my death. I'm not feeling so swell, but that may be due to all of the burritos and cerveza someone forced down my gullet whilst I was taking a leetle nap.
Posted by: Louie
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January 20, 2008 03:29 PM
Clinton 54%
Obama 38%
Edwards 8%
Posted by: A_Weevil
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January 20, 2008 03:34 PM
The guy in the white suit on the left: M. Brantley?
ARK. BLOG: Nope. I was wearing a Haspel gold pincord suit that day -- it was the era of coats and ties at W&L, barely -- but I was on the balcony of the Robert E. Lee Hotel taking this photo.
Somebody mentioned Moses. He graduated a year earlier.
PS -- I'm surprised no one has noticed the Mills for President signs on the side of truck and by demonstrators. Remember our favorite son candidate?
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 20, 2008 04:21 PM
Sorry for the mix-up, Larry/Louie.
Ok, Eureka...she's a bad girl.
Posted by: zelda
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January 20, 2008 04:35 PM
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 32%
Edwards: 16%
Posted by: Teabeer
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January 20, 2008 05:12 PM
Clinton 46%
Obama 35%
Edwards 19%
I hang with Democrats and I'm really disappointed that more people aren't excited about Hillary. We know how intelligent she is and how much she pushed education and children's issues in Arkansas. Obama has the charisma but not the depth. He can really move a crowd, as we witnessed during his visit to the state Capitol during Beebe's campaign. I'm surprised I'm not hearing more about Edwards being touted as the union candidate. Why is that? You would think Arkansas would be more interested in labor.
I think McCain will have Pryor as his running mate. We will have a special election without an incumbent. Yippee!
I did not cash a ticket yesterday at Oaklawn, so I will probably spend my $50 on the horses after February 5. Does my prediction about Pryor help?
Posted by: Farkleberry
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January 20, 2008 05:30 PM
Picture: White suit guy -- Lee Thalheimer
ARK. BLOG: Good guess. Fraternity brother. But no.
Posted by: NorthCentral
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January 20, 2008 06:38 PM
Clinton - 62%
Obama - 22%
Edwards - 16%
Posted by: Stump
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January 20, 2008 07:54 PM
My second guess for the guy in the white suit: Bill Clinton?
ARK. BLOG: Nope. Member of Class of W&L of 1972. Little Rock native. Lawyer.
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 20, 2008 08:15 PM
Even if the request was sarcastic, there may be some who feel grateful for their good fortune and can help others who need a hand.
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=10179
Union Rescue Mission, Little Rock
P.O. Box 164057
Little Rock, AR 72216
tel: (501) 374-1748
fax: (501) 375-5134
Posted by: docholliday
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January 20, 2008 09:04 PM
White suit: Heartsill Ragon
ARK. BLOG: Another good try. Still no cigar. And, given that this thread will disappear before long, I perhaps should go ahead and reveal (and keep the prize, a W&L cocktail shaker for myself) that the fellow in the white suit is Little Rock native and lawyer now working in Washington, Mark Grobmyer.
Posted by: NorthCentral
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January 20, 2008 09:20 PM
Clinton -57%
Obama- 33%
Edwards- 10%
Posted by: Nanc
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January 20, 2008 10:25 PM
Clinton 56%
Obama 26%
Edwards 18%
Posted by: BlueRidge
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January 20, 2008 10:43 PM
Clinton 45%
Obama 38%
Edwards 12%
Posted by: BlueDonkey
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January 21, 2008 03:29 AM
no numbers, but another prediction...
one of the headlines on 6Feb08 for Arkansas will be that neither Hillary nor Huckabee break 50%
Posted by: muleboy303
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January 21, 2008 07:02 AM
Closer than you think:
Clinton 47%
Obama 45%
Edwards 5%
Posted by: Moxiemoron
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January 21, 2008 08:56 AM
Hilliary 52%
Obama 38%
Edwards 5%
Posted by: Odell Goodrum
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January 21, 2008 09:18 AM
Clinton 51
Obama 22
Edwards 22
Posted by: Pavel
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January 21, 2008 10:00 AM
Clinton 63%
Obama 30%
Edwards 3 %
Posted by: HankRearden
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January 21, 2008 10:03 AM
Clinton 46
Obama 34
Edwards 15
Posted by: mm
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January 21, 2008 11:39 AM
Clinton 53%
Obama 38%
Edwards 7%
Others 2%
Posted by: Drew Pritt
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January 21, 2008 12:31 PM
Also, taking on the vein of discussion Hugh Mann predicted, I say :
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) & General Wesley K. Clark (D-Ar.) for the Democrats.
Senator John McCain (D-Az.) & Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Ar.) for the Republicans.
Posted by: Drew Pritt
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January 21, 2008 12:40 PM
DocH,,,hope you see this before it goes away,,,,I was not being sarcastic, sorry if it
came out that way,,,Lord, I have a heart made out of mush and things like that do break
my heart,,,I feel so bad you took it as I didn't mean it.
My Hubby and I do a lot, here in the Spa, for the down on their luck folks, we are far
from "rich" but always willing to share what we can.
Forgive me if I hurt you.
Posted by: jazzy
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January 21, 2008 02:36 PM
Clinton/Clark sounds very plausible to me, Drew.
Posted by: hugh mann
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January 21, 2008 07:19 PM