It's over
I'd be happy to be wrong. For a variety of reasons, I'd prefer Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic presidential nominee.
But it's not going to happen. She'll be clobbered in Wisconsin tomorrow. She might run ahead in the popular vote in Texas, but the delegate count will be close, probably pro-Obama. The media talk, the popular mood, the times -- they all work for Obama.
Finally, there's been the Clinton campaign. Fighting, seriously, today about Obama's borrowing of rhetoric from a friend is a sign of desperation. Obama is derivative. So is everyone. And Bill Clinton -- who knew? -- has proved to be a negative.
The anti-Hillary media megaphone can't be underestimated.
Some of it is crazy. Some of it unfair. So is life.
Obama will win the nomination. Polls today say he'll beat McCain everywhere -- in every key state and nationally. Those same polls said the same thing about Hillary Clinton's sure dominance a few months ago.
For the record.





Comments
First comes denial: "He won't win. She has 100% name recognition and Bill on her side."
Then anger: "Who is this upstart? Two years in the Senate and he thinks it's his turn?"
Then bargaining: "Clinton/Obama '08!" (DBI is still in this stage)
Then depression: "If only the media weren't so sexist. They think Obama walks on water."
Finally, acceptance.
Posted by: Prouster
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February 18, 2008 06:59 PM
Polls today say he'll beat McCain everywhere -- in every key state and nationally.<<
What if the Supers take it away from Hillary after she wins Tex and Ohio?
Isn't that what the Superdelegates are all about? Making sure the nomination doesn't go to a sure
loser? Keep saying "high negatives" long and often enough and they stick.
Anyway, a black man or a woman would be turning the page into a new diversity. I saw ad hoc polls saying an Obama presidency would be welcomed and applauded by our international friends.
He will take office with both Houses on his side (thank you Howard Dean). So much can be accomplished without walking in R slime like Clinton was forced to do.
I will be supporting the Demo nominee.
.
Posted by: eLwood
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February 18, 2008 07:03 PM
Polls show Hillary in a dead heat in Wisconsin and Texas, and ahead in in Ohio. Pennsylvania should go for Hillary. It's a hard row to hoe, but I don't believe I'd count her out just yet.
Posted by: Archaeopteryx
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February 18, 2008 07:07 PM
Texas: yes, a dead heat.
Wisconsin: nope, Obama leading by over 10%.
Posted by: JD
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February 18, 2008 07:08 PM
Congratulations Max.
You have returned to the land of the living. Yes, it is hard. Billary had their time. This is a new time. Someone new had to clean up the disaster that was W. It couldn't be, wasn't, Hillary. Her destiny is elsewhere.
Posted by: Fletch
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February 18, 2008 07:16 PM
He ran a smarter campaign, and had a clear message; she didn't. Michelle was compelling and Bill, "the most skilled politician of our time," was a bona fide DISASTER!! HE started the Obama-rama...
Having said that, WHO out there would oppose a RADICAL change in the process of selecting candidates? - THIS totally sucks and is little more than a bank account, smart staffers and a (media) popularity contest. Campaigning AND fundraising should be restricted to the year of the election, the Commission on Presidential Debates should be 86'd and there should be a series of regional primaries AND no "caucuses."
Pryor is a rat! AND "I will be supporting the Demo nominee."
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Posted by: Larry
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February 18, 2008 07:25 PM
Cartoon time......click
Posted by: Cato
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February 18, 2008 07:35 PM
I think Max if trying the ol' reverse psychology trick. Hillary is behind, but she is a long way from being dead in the road. Voters don't mind being stupid, but they don't like being told what to do. I still think this thing is going to the convention all tied up.
Max, I also think Bill's big mistake was the pardons on the last day of his Presidency. People remember their first meeting and the last time you are with someone, and everyone remembers the bad taste that Marc Rich, et al left. If he had not ended on such a note, I think his effect would be much more positive in '08.
Posted by: Bubba
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February 18, 2008 07:47 PM
there are far too many powerful interests whose futures depend on HRC becoming the 44th POTUS.
(the BFEE, the MIC, the Israelis, Wall Street Banks, etc.)
just sit back and watch as "events" conspire to "make it so"
Posted by: muleboy303
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February 18, 2008 07:54 PM
Well, as someone who would prefer Obama, I suppose I'm happy to read your analysis. However, most of the things I've read seem to indicate she would have a pretty good chance if they were close in the delegate count going into the convention. It seems like an establishment candidate with Bill's rolodex would have a slight advantage in that case. Do you think the Obama's momentum would be enough to pull him through with the superdelegates?
I still figure Obama needs to pull out at least 1 or 2 out of the big 3 (TX, OH, PA) and he can't afford another New Hamphire type surprise in WI.
Posted by: ARHawk
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February 18, 2008 08:12 PM
"Just Words" clever spin by Obama. Yes, I see the connection and added value of qouting these great lines from the true authors of those lines. But it brought to mind this question. Has Obama ever had an original thought let alone an idea, or does he campaign on feel goodness and nothing else.
CNN, who just adores Oby, went to the floor to ask people what are some of the policy ideas they love about Oby. None of them could name something. They went to four people before CNN realized they had a dead end going for them and switched to some more Hillary Slamming from their so called analysts instead.
I fear that Oby's feel good talk and lack of substance is going to catch up to him and the Dems will get eaten alive. And, if we are really unfortunate McCain will have Huck as a running mate.
Posted by: Ron Rizzardi
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February 18, 2008 08:22 PM
I've gone from supporting Hillary, to Obama, back to Hillary but loathing having Bill back in the picture, to finally, after learning of how the Clintons sold us all down the river with the clemency for the Puerto Rican liberation front or whatever it is called that was widely reported on again this week, to finally going over to Obama for good.
I think the Clintons can be so dark in pursuit of power and they crossed some very disturning lines on that.
Good for Obama.
Posted by: IABL1969
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February 18, 2008 08:30 PM
Max, you may be right, and if so, I'll climb on the Obama wagon. But I'll spend now til November worrying about the Repubs sifting through Obama's family, marriage, friends, middle name, finances, votes, investments and religion.
Posted by: PVNasby
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February 18, 2008 08:31 PM
"I fear that Oby's feel good talk and lack of substance is going to catch up to him and the Dems will get eaten alive. And, if we are really unfortunate McCain will have Huck as a running mate."
Man, I totally agree with that. Obama will get my vote if he gets the nomination, simply because he doesn't have an "R" behind his name. I hope all other "D's" will do the same. But the guy says NOTHING - and he says it very well. This, and all the stockpiled ammunition the REpugs have, just waiting for time to use it, will pretty much assure a McCain presidency. So, we'll be stuck in one Middle East war or another for the next hundred years or so. But at least there won't be a real "conservative" in the White House, and Rush Limbaugh will have a chapped ass for the next 8 or 16 years.
So we've got that going for us...which is nice.
Posted by: RickBaber
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February 18, 2008 08:38 PM
How much am I bet?
Obama will be the first black U.S. President.
I'd have bet (originally) on Hillary as the first female President. I'd have been wrong.
Either way, it will be a badge of honor for the U.S.
Competence and qualifications over race and gender.
Posted by: NormaBates
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February 18, 2008 08:40 PM
I told Hubby, 4 years ago, when I heard Obama give the key note speech at the Dem
convention, he would be our first Black, bi-racial, prez.........but, I don't count Hillary
out by a long shot......I will vote for Atilla the Hun if he/she has a D by their name.
Just saw Huck the Clown give a live feed from Little Rock, isn't he suppose to be on the
campaign trail in some far-away state? I thot Arkansas already voted.
Posted by: jazzy
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February 18, 2008 08:55 PM
"the guy says nothing"
"lack of substance"
"what does he stand for?"
/it's all here folks, click name
Posted by: Rev. Mojo Ryson
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February 18, 2008 09:08 PM
I hope you are wrong, Max, but if Obama is the choice, I'll vote for him.
Thanks for the link, Rev. I like Obama more and more since I read that.
Posted by: BlueRidge
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February 18, 2008 09:36 PM
Ever hear of Kansas? They liked the Huckster. So this won't surprise you..Click on Cato
Posted by: Cato
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February 18, 2008 09:38 PM
It ain't over till it's over and I'll stand by that for now. That Prouster is rooting for Obama should be a clear indication the real bad ugly is right around the next corner. I'd say the Roveian Thought is that in the end America is not sufficiently past racism enough to elect a young black man over an old white war hero. Remember...the magic number is 51%, that's all the Republicans have to get....51%.
There is certainly some reason that Republicans want Obama vs McCain, instead of Clinton vs McCain. Plus Prouster, it isn't my desire to have Hillary so bad that I'm willing for her to share the ticket with Obama. I see the Clinton/Obama ticket as unbeatable! Everyone wins but the damn crooked Republicans.
But I guess that would make too much sense. 16 years of Democratic rule freezing out the Republicans until all those around today would be too old to still be working their evil. No....let's go with the Democrat the Republicans hope we'll nominate and when the White Power voters come out of the hills and when you add in the Republican dirty tricks that are coming....not only may we not have 8 years of Democratic rule, we may wind up with ZERO.
But on your way to the gulag, you can tell the guy chained next to you...Oh yeah....I loved me a bunch of that Obama. We really stuck it to the Clintons, huh.
If Max is reluctantly right, I will join behind Barack Obama like he IS the second coming. But damn if I won't continue to wonder what the Obama loving Republicans are up to and how we can fool around and lose the 3rd national election in a row. I'm afraid if things go as poorly as they could, we'll be looking admiringly at Mexico like we now look admiringly towards Canada. Bad bad trouble is coming....
Posted by: Deathbyinches
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February 18, 2008 09:46 PM
It time -- Attact! Attack! Attacl!
U.S. Sen. John McCain is no War Hero
http://www.namvets.com/Reading/john_mccain_is_no_war_hero.htm
Posted by: BWC
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February 18, 2008 10:01 PM
OK, Someone who believes there are bunches of US pilots still held hostage after 30, or is it 40, years doesn't like McCain.
So far the number of prisoners still left behind in Viet Nam equals the number of weapons of mass destruction found in Iraq.
Posted by: mudturtle
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February 18, 2008 10:14 PM
You know, I sometimes wonder if we Democrats haven't created a bit of a bogeyman out of Karl Rove. Other than being a little ahead of the curve on some data mining techniques, he doesn't strike me as being that extraordinary. Sure, he lies completely without conscience, but that's been true of most political operatives for the last several hundred years at least.
It's easy to lose sight of the fact that his candidate got fewer votes and that with a better-designed ballot or without Ralph Nader, his candidate would have lost the electoral college vote as well. John Kerry was about as uninspiring a candidate as one can find and he still gave Rove's boy a pretty close run. I'll grant that Rove did win with a barely literate half-wit, but that's not always that big a handicap in political races. I think Democrats have aided his cause by running uninspiring, relatively unlikeable candidates. I wouldn't alter my vote one way or another based on who Rove thought he could or couldn't beat. He's a standard soulless political operative, nothing more and nothing less.
Posted by: ARHawk
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February 18, 2008 10:31 PM
I am also tired of Democrats peeing in their pants (metaphorically, though I wouldn't be surprised if some particularly sorry cases experience this literally) imaging what that big scary manbeast Karl Rove is going to get up to. He's nasty and throws some really ugly slime and apparently that conveys an air of impregnable competence. Granted, he did play on the team that managed to get a complete moron elected president twice, but if you look closely it wasn't all that of an impressive achievement as ARHawk points out.
Let Karl bring his freak on Obama, it ain't gonna manage to make a winner out of "let's bomb Iran and keep the troops in Iraq for 100 years" geriatric McCain.
As for the poll comparison, let's point out that Hillary's lead over Obama was when Obama was a mostly unknown. As he became more known, he shot up in the polls most everywhere. McCain, conversely, is in no way a comparable unknown and will not experience the same effect.
Posted by: JuneOf44
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February 18, 2008 11:03 PM
Heh, the youtube evil-eye kid reminds me of Obama.
/click name
Posted by: Rev. Mojo Ryson
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February 18, 2008 11:22 PM
I fear that Oby's feel good talk and lack of substance is going to catch up to him and the Dems will get eaten alive.<<
That's what the Wise Ones (superdelegates) are supposed to know, all things political and protect the great unread, inexperienced bloggers from.
So I ask again- should Hillyaryites have right to be pissed IF the Superdelegates take the nomination away from her?
Posted by: eLwood
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February 18, 2008 11:30 PM
Yeah, but Rove didn't this, and barely managed that and it's only 2 whole elections he won, just barely and of course Kerry was uninspiring and who'd vote for uninspiring when you can vote for a retard frat boy remote controlled by a crazy man flying around in an Airstream trailer inside a plane called the Spirit of Strom Thurman.
Oh, this election will be a snap. We barely got the lights turned on and already there's a gay man on YouTube swearing he blew Obama in the back of a limo in 1999. Rovian Experts have found a way to make every supposedly liberal commentator in TV and in print say 5 unflattering things before the name Clinton just before the report of Obama walking on water.
And all the talk of Republicans crossing over to vote for Obama in Texas....oh, no...really, the Republicans in that clear thinking liberal state of Texas have seen the light and instead of dragging black men behind pickups until their heads fall off in the street, they're going to go vote for the first black man they've ever learned to love.
Just back off and think for a minute. Does any of this make a damn bit of sense to you? Really? A relatively unknown young black man who can give a good speech shows up at a time when America is in ruins, Congress and the Supreme Court bought off, the Middle East in flames, our Justice Department ruined and suddenly this black Messiah comes along with powers so great that the glassy-eyed Republicans see the error of their ways and flock to vote for Barack Obama....are you high?
I certainly understand why Democrats like Obama....I like him too, but there is no good, decent reason that suddenly Republicans love this Democrat and are pulling out all the stops to see that he is the Democratic nominee. No sense....it makes no sense. It's Republicans with box cutters boarding our election. Stop and smell the stink.....another trick is being launched. The neo-cons at least think they know a sure way to steal Presidential election #3. Think!
Posted by: Deathbyinches
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February 18, 2008 11:43 PM
I agree with Max and constantly fret over much the same thoughts Ron Rizzardi expressed above.
America just has to elect people who look in every possible way for reasons not to go to war.. Thank all that is right with the world.. the Democrats may just nominate a candidate who, up until now, has not voted for our brothers and sisters in arms to kill and be killed needlessly.
DBI is right about the attack dogs... but the mass appeal of Obama is our best shot for fighting back now. Clinton never had 50 plus percent of the countries approval.. after so many years of exposure she wasn't likely to gain much in a year of a rehashing history campaign. And the GOPers are going to rekindle every dirty trick in the book plus a few egregious moves like caging and escalation of war and occupation.. Cheney and Pryor's of this world are far from finished and neither is Rove.
The country needs a clean slate.. If only the voters would turn over a lot of bought and paid for Senators and Congressmen... change for the better could actually occur.
if Hillary had prevailed (and she may still do so) America would have stopped paying attention again... Maybe, just maybe, these young inspired folks will remain involved and watch Obamas moves and keep him honest on health care, energy plans, and MIC expenditures.
Marx Pryor is a low down dirty rat who votes like he hates America and our constitution. And John McCain is too old to cut the mustard anymore.
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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February 19, 2008 12:12 AM
Hey! Obama is not the first black Redeemer America has produced and
certainly not the first with a contentious childhood.
There's another one, long disappeared into the annals of history but
was he potent. All women drooled over him.
click on name
.
Posted by: eLwood
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February 19, 2008 12:43 AM
Interesting, eLwood. Today, Reverend Ike is a spiritual descendent, I guess......or Benny Hinn, who is in Uganda asking those "wealthy" people to fund his lavish life style.
Posted by: Cato
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February 19, 2008 08:08 AM
"...So I ask again- should Hillyaryites have right to be pissed IF the Superdelegates take the nomination away from her?"--elwood
This 'Hillyarite' cares about stopping another Republican presidency from taking us or bombing us back to places I thought we were long past...above all other considerations. Again, if Obama is the nominee, I hope I'm wrong about Obama's chances against the Republicans; and I'll gladly support/work for his candidacy. (On the other hand, I've already counted Hillary out more than once, so until it's over I'm not giving up on her chances.) From my perspective, elwood, it's not the Hillary supporters who are uncompromising...but mine is just one view. Even if I believe the election was stolen from Hillary, I'll set that injustice aside and keep my eye on the real injustice: Another Republican warmongering, choice-hating Republican.
If you're a Dem and Rove doesn't make you sit up, pay attention (or piss your pants), you haven't been paying close attention...and indicative of Dem's notoriously short memories. I'll agree that we shouldn't let fear of Republican nastiness determine our choices (one reason I support Hillary); but after the last two presidential elections I'll ALWAYS have a healthy fear of how an election can be stolen and how one president can undermine everything good about our system of governance/checks and balances.
Posted by: zelda
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February 19, 2008 08:44 AM
Oh Max,
Please don't give up so soon, we will have nothing to fight about
Unless this your Hillary crying game all over again with the blog; and HRC is now poised for a Wisconsin comeback
Over in Madison County around Greasy Creek we go by feelings and we have no evidence but it does feel like the Presidential engine has stalled, no radical changes, no swings one way or the other just a kind of suspended animation
AND I think that helps HRC, Obama who we love & want as our nominee has definitely not closed this thing out. AND although NPR comes in a little fuzzy out here the message she was spouting on the ground today in Wisconsin was dead on
SO yes we think Obama holds in Wisconsin but Hillary can always claim she was the comeback kid in the Badger state and try an hold her dwindling lead in Ohio.
Regardless we need to get the Presidential engine revved back up because we more people pay attention and more people participate OBAMA really starts to put some distance between himself and Hillary
BUT don't lose hope Max, there is still a chance Democrats will screw this whole thing up and nominate HRC
Posted by: Orval Eugene
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February 19, 2008 11:31 AM
being from the 'show me' part of Missourah, i'll not believe that HRC will not be the 44th POTUS until someone else takes their hand off the bible on 20 Jan 2009.
(even if the DEMs nominate an Obama/Clinton ticket in August and they win in November)
Posted by: muleboy303
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February 19, 2008 11:37 AM
This may be the weepiest blog post I've ever seen. I'm curious if Max's sour grapes will force him to continue the Barack bashing even after he secures the nomination.
At least with her exit from the race Hillary will have more time to come back and visit Arkansas, the state she just loves so much. I won't hold my breath on that one.
Posted by: FreedomCounty
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February 19, 2008 07:28 PM
You are absolutely right dbi.
Rove served his apprenticeship in CREEP and watched the Colson forged Canuck letter implode Muskie and Segretti play his tricks "with a little wit attached" until CREEP had exactly the Democrat they wanted to run against.
He never forgot and never stopped, click on handle
Posted by: docholliday
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February 19, 2008 10:17 PM
From what I can tell, universal health care will bite the dust if Obama gets the nomination.
That being said, I don't want McCain getting the pres.
Posted by: rablib
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February 20, 2008 11:22 PM