Arkansas Blog

Is she ducking the sniper fire around Latrobe?

If they weren't bitter, they
are now. If Obama is our
nominee, we lose those
"bitter" voters.

Kiss the "Reagan Democrats"
goodbye once again....

No sniper fire, Red. Although I did have to run from some dangerous chili-powered missiles Sunday morning.

A-HA! So THIS explains Max's obvious Anti-Obama bias..

:-)

It's not the real Obama that
has been inspiring people. It
is what people THINK he is
that has been inspiring them.
By the time November arrives,
the difference will be clear.

"A-HA! So THIS explains Max's obvious Anti-Obama bias.."

nope...he's just one of us
bitter voters. If only we
weren't so bitter, we'd see
the light and vote for Him.

"Her Scranton office was swarming with volunteers on a cold, rainy Sunday morning. Obama's office, one block away, was almost empty. You tell me what that means for November."

Was that because Obama's volunteers were out canvassing, or are you saying that he just had so few volunteers? Because that would be completely contradictory to what I've been hearing.

All those voters have swung against Obama because of the "bitter" comments? I believe it. I'm just completely surprised, considering Bill Clinton said: "All These Economically Insecure White People...Are Scared To Death" (link in name). But he didn't get any flak for it. Something tells me that, yes, absolutely, being a Harvard educated black man works against you--especially in the eyes of white blue collar workers. I have to question if an inferiority complex is at play here. I think that's a completely legitimate question.

Also, this calls into question the role of the media: are they steering around opinion by making people aware of faux-injustices. (Why did they never get indignant over Bill Clinton's comments cited above??)

The reason why people like me have questioned Clinton's motives is simple: she simply can't win. As I have cited over and over again, she needs to win by at least 30% (65-35) of ALL REMAINING ELECTIONS to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead. Or, including her superdelegate lead, 26% to overcome Obama. Go to the slate delegate calculator and see it for yourself: http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

"nope...he's just one of us
bitter voters. If only we
weren't so bitter, we'd see
the light and vote for Him."-bold

....oh ok, so his daughter working for Clinton doesn't explain any part of bias at all? ..... oh ok yeah....that makes sense....

JD - As for volunteers, I'm judging by 11:30 am -- Clinton campaign doesn't begin going door-to-door until 12 on Sundays (because of church), so volunteers assemble at HQ for marching orders around 11:30. Perhaps the Obama campaign starts earlier and that's why the office was empty? I didn't see anyone sitting at the phone banks when we returned after dark, either.

The delegate calculator is what it is -- an equation. It doesn't -- and can't -- take into account scenarios where HRC takes the popular vote, including FL; where the credentials committee seats the FL and MI delegates; superdelegates are persuaded by her strength in swing and large states, etc. I'm not saying she's got great odds, but I don't think she should give up just yet.

Perhaps its the other way around, JD maybe daughter Martha was influenced by father, Max. You know it happens...family members often support the same party and candidates.

I think we are all mostly "Yellow Dog Democrats" here......

JD are you mentally challenged?
Max isn't going to determine his
support for a candidate on that.

AND the very suggestion he would is
as condescending as the bitter comment.

Obama and his supporters just don't
realize that half of Democrats do not
support him for legitimate reasons.
The arrogance is incredible....

Max your blog program SUCKS.
When you going to get a real
blog program that doesn't sign
you out ever 5 minutes making
you lose what you typed?

Clinton: Pentagon Must Buy US Goods

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: April 12, 2008 Filed at 5:11 p.m. ET

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton outlined a plan Saturday to keep more military-related manufacturing in the United States, calling it an economic and security priority.

Speaking at a plant here that builds transmissions for military vehicles, Clinton said she would limit the Defense Department's ability to buy foreign-made products, in part by making the agency consider the impact on U.S. jobs when it awards contracts.
------------------

.... KUDOS to Madame (or Kudos with caveats... and even the caveats have caveats*)

for Hillary said something on the stump that actually made sense, BUT (always the BUT with her) she failed to point out that one of the major reasons why the Pentagon is now able to procure weaponry that is more produced in foreign countries than in the U.S. is because of an amendment proposed in 2003 and passed by the GOP controlled Congress.

who proposed the amendment? none other than JOHN McCAIN.
(just imagine how many folks who work at Boeing are going to vote for him?)

the caveat? well unfortunately nowadays it IS possible that Hillary did mention McCain's amendment, but the reporter (or editors) saw fit not to include it in the AP wire story.

JD -

I wish I could influence my dad like that! I don't think my sporadic volunteering has forged his opinions on this...nor do I think I could sway him on much else.

And Nanc, I'm sure my strong Democratic leanings have a lot to do with the people that raised me...but my choice about the Senator from NY really is my own. Just as my choice to give money and time to Obama, should he win the nomination, will be mine as well.

Bold, I never said Max's reasons for supporting Hillary are solely due to his daughter; however, I think it should be obvious that having a daughter who works for a particular campaign would make the father/mother more predisposed to that candidate. It's certainly an element in his overall opinion/perception of Hillary (though not the whole enchilada)--just as my parents are more open to/know more about Obama because I'm an active supporter of his. How did you not understand that?

And I gotta ask, Bold, is there a legitimate reason why the lines of your posts cutoff halfway and hence take up so much damn space, or are you just an asshole?

Martha, Hillary is losing the popular vote, so you can scrap the delegate counter if you want--the difference would be negligible. The Florida election should not even be cited unless there is a total revote, which again, I would not be against. No candidates campaigned there. As far as the credentials committee, everyone seems confused as to the function of it (I had to look it up), including the DNC itself.

As far as Clinton "winning big states and swing states," that is a myth, as tackled by the Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/clintons-big-state-myt_b_90115.html

Hillary would not be "giving up" if she left the race. That term has inappropriate connotations--it implies she's close and has a reasonable chance.

"Her Scranton office was swarming with volunteers on a cold, rainy Sunday morning. Obama's office, one block away, was almost empty. You tell me what that means for November."

Uh... that he'll lose to McCain in the general election because Clinton's office had more volunteers in Scranton, Pennsylvania on a Sunday morning? Is that what you think it means?

perhaps it means that Obama's people were out working in the "bitter" cold and rain,
while Hillary's folks were huddled 'round the coffee pot ?

The popular vote ain't done yet, JD! Can we wait and see what happens before you declare her the loser? And we've got a difference of opinion on Florida. I think the popular vote there matters. Two million voters *despite* no campaigning. Their effort to cast a vote just doesn't matter? Note you don't see me arguing for Michigan --

As for the HuffPo article, I don't know if I think it still holds water when you look at the most recent head to head polls (McCain vs Obama and McCain vs Hillary) in PA, FL, OH, and troublingly, NY. I think her swing state article is gaining a lot of steam post-Wright and post-bitter.

I'm sorry, but I just don't think you've got close-the-deal arguments yet. (A lot of Americans feel the same way, apparently.) We've got a lot of people left to vote and a lot of delegates yet to be assigned. Write your death sentence after they've had their say.

What it means for November:

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 03/24 to 04/09 - 39.8% 48.3% Clinton +8.5%

John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 03/24 to 04/09 - 41.3% 44.8% Obama +3.5%

And this before last weekend.

PA is not NY, CA, MA, NJ, or IL.

And Muleboy - we've been over this. See above. The full-time staff at CLinton HQ had a team walking every precinct in their area. Literally more volunteers who wanted to canvass than work to go around -- so they phonebanked. Near the coffee pot, perhaps.

I never said the Florida vote doesn't matter. (I said, "The Florida election should not even be cited unless there is a total revote, which again, I would not be against.")

Be my guest: have a revote in Florida, but don't declare the results as-they-stand are legitimate as if candidates had campaigned there to begin with. Let me say this another way: all the candidates agreed NOT to campaign in FL, how can that possibly be fair to accept those results? (P.S. Unless she totally lays Obama out flat in FL--by like, uh, 50%--she'll still lose.)

Ok, she's not the outright/100% certified loser. If she pulls a Jesus-style comeback, winning by say, 27% of all the remaining elections, she'll win. She's waiting for a Mike-Huckabee-miracle.

so between Rendell's support/organization, Obama refusing to pay "walking around" money, the "bitter/orange juice" backlash, better poll numbers versus McCain nationally, HRC's "enthusiastic" workers, and PA being "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between", then the new ARG poll will prove correct?

sounds to me like a bad case of the 'frontrunner's blues', as once upon a time, not so long ago, as one by one other DEM contenders dropped out, Obama became the 'anti-Hillary' candidate, pushing him to the fore, whereas now she has become the 'anti-Obama' candidate. which i'd have no problem with, if she would but adopt the "Huckabee" model, soldier on (pardon the pun) whilst aiming her rhetorical fire at McCain, rather than providing the GOP with divisions to exploit in the fall.

Thanks for the post, Martha. It's interesting to read how things are "on the ground" in the midst of the campaign. I can certainly understand the Clinton camp's reluctance to throw in the towel, especially while there is still an outside chance they could pull off a victory. I also believe that Clinton has no intention of spoiling the November election for Obama. Unfortunately, as time wears on, she may inadvertantly be doing that very thing.

I have no doubt that the Republicans would be scouring every word that the Democratic nominee was quoted as saying and would be playing it to the hilt. So the problem isn't so much that Hillary is doing the work of the Republicans, but that no one is really doing the work of the Democrats. It seems that the Obama and Clinton campaigns are still mostly focused on exploiting the missteps of the other Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, McCain is skating by with mostly positive press coverage and not really facing any heat for showing his complete lack of understanding of the Middle East and those darn Iranian Sunnis. Plus, if this message board is any indication, Obama supporters and Clinton supporters are really starting to develop a disliking for each other. Maybe we should just make Indiana a winner-take-all state and be done with it.

Look, there's no way that any of us can persuade JD to get his nose out of Obama's rear. It looks as if it is stuck there permanently, so I've given up on him.

However, the latest averages of polls that are tracked on Realclearpolitics.com show McCain beating both Hillary AND Obama...but the gap has closed considerably in the past week.

Today, MCain beats Hillary by .8% and Obama by .4%. Obama was ahead of McCain a week ago and Hillary was getting creamed by him. Look at the numbers today and they are far different from last week. In another week, they will probably be different, too, but JD won't like them.

This is why I have said all along that Hillary should not give up...things happen that turn elections around and we have seen one of them here with Obama's remarks in San Francisco last week-end.

JD, go take a pill and give it a break tonight. You'll need your strength after Pennsylvania votes next Tuesday.

Those new polls ARE interesting. I looked at the latest polls on the general election nationwide, and it appears Clinton has closed the gap on Obama (albeit through fairly dirty tactics). Link in name.

That is to say, she's closed the gap in the sense that she's helped pull down Obama so that BOTH of them are now losing to McCain. Great.

That said, if I see sufficient evidence that Hillary would do better than Obama in a general election, I'll readily concede that point.

Wow Old Blue Eyes. You are quite the ass. I just said the exact same thing you did, and I never saw your post.

If anything, I've shown I'm far more willing than you to be objective about the race. I'm glad the proximity of our posts showed that.

Hey, JD, you just said....

"I just said the exact same thing you did, and I never seen your post."

And that makes me the only ass?

Go figure.

"Meanwhile, McCain is skating by with mostly positive press coverage and not really facing any heat for showing his complete lack of understanding..."

Let's watch happens to this:

DNC Files Lawsuit About Campaign Finance Weasel John McCain
As many all know by now, John McCain applied for -- and was accepted into -- the public financing system for the primary. With that acceptance came certain requirements, one of those being that he can't spend more than $56,757,500 million during the primary.

As of February 29, 2008 McCain has -- by his own admission -- exceeded that amount. The FEC Chairman David Mason says McCain can't leave the public financing system without permission of the FEC, but John McCain is thumbing his nose at that

Since the FEC doesn't have enough commissioners to take action, having been gutted by Republicans in the Senate who are blocking the appointment of a quorum, the DNC's complaint about this matter has fallen on deaf ears. (We filed a similar complaint.) If the FEC fails to act, the law allows the DNC to file suit compelling them to do so -- which they did today.

To me, the main problem with counting Florida as is, is that we don't know to what degree we had a true representative sample of the Democratic voters of Florida. I have little doubt that Clinton would have won that primary (if older white women and Hispanics are your base, you can't do much better than Florida); however, we can't really know to what degree she would have won it. Statistically speaking, the first election is basically meaningless because there may have been strong selection bias. Maybe her voters were more likely to see the need to try to make a statement for their candidate who was struggling at the time, even knowing their votes wouldn't count, while Obama's voters didn't see the need to vote in what everyone agreed would be a meaningless election. It's also entirely possible that a true election would have turned out proportionally the same as the meaningless one. Unfortunately, we can't really know either way.

"And that makes me the only ass?"

At least you admit it.

Martha,

You have a very nice touch with words. I like your writing more than your politics.

I would fully expect Hillary to win Pennsylvania regardless of what is happening in the rest of the country. It's union, it's white, it's a lot of classic working Democrats.

But even with a win there the math is still tough in Camp Hillary. To win the nomination she has to go all the way to the convention, and if the Dem's go into the convention undecided, you can give this to McCain right now.

But even if I'm wrong about that...the bigger problem you have is that Obama voters are going to take a walk if Hillary gets the nomination. Many will cross over and the Hillary cultists will face an election without the black vote being a given.

I think I understand why McCain is saying he would rather run against Hillary. Her getting the nomination would split the Democratic Party as never before.

Another thing I was right about a year ago....general election voters are not going to hold the Bush incompetency against the 2008 GOP nominee.

Don't forget...a year ago all you AT bloggers were preaching that 2008 would be a cake walk for the Dem's...what happened to that scenario?

the pendulum, the economy, mccain = bush (90%+), new/younger voter turnout, and IRAQ = the easiest DEM election victory since 1932. (why do ya think the nomination is being fought so hard for?)

after the Conventions and Labor Day kickoff to the general election, for many weeks there will be a rather large "undecided" block in the polls (compared to the past 5 elections), who after seeing/hearing him in the debates with McCain, will decide that Obama is "safe" enough to elect and effect desperately needed "change" from the status-quo, just as they did with Ronald Reagan in the last month of the 1980 campaign.

*** Today, MCain beats Hillary by .8% and Obama by .4%. Obama was ahead of McCain a week ago and Hillary was getting creamed by him. Look at the numbers today and they are far different from last week. In another week, they will probably be different, too, but JD won't like them. ***
Posted by: Old Blue Eyes

Mock precision with small samples.

Get real.

Oh how I wish today was November 3rd! I am so sick of it! I just want to get McCain beat and get on with rebuilding this country. There aren't enough pixels for me to list everyone I'd rather have in the White House than the criminal cabal we currently have. I am neither a woman or a black man, so I don't really identify with either Hillary or Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. in that "I've walked in their shoes" way I usually do every 4 years. And good! It's about time someone other than a rich old white man got the chance to run this country. Tell me they'll do worse....go on and tell me!

I was very comfortable with Hillary until the Bosnia thing....it really can't be explained away. I remember which girls who sat across from me in 10th grade US history class, couldn't keep their legs crossed in those short skirts the spring of 1972, I'd sure as hell remember where someone shot at me. In fact I do remember the exact spot where someone shot at me, but that's another story.

I was raised by simple people in a simpler time. Growing up Ma told me stories of the horrible things that Hitler did. She told me about Benedict Arnold and made me think spying for another country was the worst thing an American could do. I guess I sucked all that up and it's a part of me. Playing both sides seems almost as bad as spying for the other side. How can you trust anyone who takes both sides in order to stuff their pockets full? Mark Pryor is sorta playing that game, he's a Democrat but sides with the Republicans on the important things. Where's he hiding his 109 million?

So I am really upset about Mark Penn and Bill Clinton sucking money by the butt-loads out of Columbia while Hillary pretends to be against the trade deal. I can believe she can be her own person, but really, it's impossible to believe her campaign manager and her husband both are snarfing up nearly a million bucks and she's voting no. If that turns out to be true, then it sure makes Mark Penn and Bill Clinton look like crooks who took the money and then didn't deliver.

I believed in all that make love, not war and buy the world a Coke crap back in the 60s and a lot of those flower children are now the 1% sucking up Bush tax cuts. Someone needs to tell Bill Clinton that 109 million is more than enough for little ole Arkansas people. YA CAN'T SPEND THAT MUCH MONEY IN THE YEARS YA GOT LEFT, BILL! And Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. is right, it's time for a change and a new way of doing business, running government and high time we quit letting our elected leaders play both sides of the fence and say one thing and do the other.

So Hillary.....do something to drag me back in or I'm afraid it's going to be BAMA time at my house. I don't think you can ever get too rich and powerful and comfortable to forget right from wrong......let's see a little right for a change.

Nuff said, DBI.

Just keep it up, JD, and you'll show yours.

At least I can smell mine (which is more than you can do yours, knowing where your nose is).

She's back ans still at it.. Thanks so much for the birds eye view Martha. It's unusual for me to look out my window over a big calm valley in Spring above the Kings River and wish i were anywhere else..But I must say I would love to be out grass rootin' in the big city this year. If you see Hillary tell her she's got the wool over most Dems eyes about her love of all things DLC and Mark Lieber-lovin' Pryor... but she really needs to quit talkin with and just like Rush, Rove, Norquist, McCheney, and all those other mobsters.. it ain't pretty and even the uninformed voters can smell those repli-rats talking points by Hillary these days. And tell Bill to DROP the Bosnia defense for chris sakes.. heck even the media has..and he is still insisting bullets were fired under the cover of darkness.. good freaking grief!

I thought she should have dropped out 6 weeks ago, but now she has to let it all sink a bit more, so be it. nevertheless your activism is inspiring.. Doing something is the most important part of being a citizen..

As for Elwoods comment above.. I have to say I have played a small part in making that happen.. Folks over @ firedoglake started a petition drive and delivered them to the FEC ourselves over the last few weeks.. We insisted the fact McCain is breaking the law not be ignored by MSM or those responsible for enforcing the election laws.. Laws written and passed by MCCain...which he is now violating! Finally we managed to get the DNC to act.. **whew** (there is a good post on it all on fdl today)

No matter what... Republicans must be dealt a fatal blow for their RICO criminality and failure to uphold their oath of office this year... and I have little doubt they will, if Marshall law and serious election theft can be evaded.

When you get back to NY... kick Senator Schumer in the shin for me... his damn support of AG Mukasey ought to get him thrown out of office once and for all! Support John Hall.. He's a good guy in spite of his support of Clinton now... I helped him get elected in several ways in '06. And tell NY Dems to take on Rep. King!! The slime ball has got to go!

P.S. Your Dad and all the folks at AR Times and blog are a part of the best thing happening in AR media since the television came into play.. It's an honor to be both observer and participant in the making / unfolding of history.. The modern day pamphleteers R' US. Just wanted to honor and say thanks for that too.

ES

I'll chime in with ES on this one. As much as I rant about how Hillary-biased this shindig is, I still by and large love it. My mother raised me on the Arkansas Times, and I don't know any better than to rebel occasionally :-) (It's also nice knowing that an AR-based newspaper/organization is at the cutting edge as far as blogging/Internet/multimedia goes.)

JD if you are so sure your guy
is going to win, why are you
always acting like such an ass?

Arrogant assholes like you make
me less likely to ever support
Obama IF he is the nominee. I
don't understand what you think
you are accomplishing on here?
Do you get paid to spend your
time on here? There are several
of you that seem as if you are
paid to stir shit up on here.

I almost have to wonder if some
of you are actually Republicans
just pretending to be Obama
supporters. The hatred you spew
towards the Clintons is worse
than most Republicans. All you
are doing is increasing dislike
of your candidate. If you are
a Democrat and not a Republican,
you are a very stupid one.

The "latte liberals" or Berkely Bohemians that fawn for Obama, are covered in his Merde (pardon the French). They put their finger in it and swear it is Sweet Potato Pie.

Bold and Blue and succubus just said all that needs to be said.

Amen.

I love those bumper stickers that say "I'm a Democart and a Christian," My grandma always said if you got to tell folks how religioius or good you are, you got a problem.

We, unfortunately, do not have a 'perfect' candidate in the race for POTUS. Do we ever? We do have a couple of okays and one very bad. Like DBI, I agree the Bosnia story can't be explained away so easily - not because it was a big fat lie, but because it was such an inept one. I've lived long enough to accept the fact that if you are a politician you will lie - heck, if you are alive you will probably lie everyday even if you are not a politician. But, if you want my vote, you need to be smart. Lie if you will but do it in a way that won't make me embarrassed.

I see them all as living lies. I heard someone comment last evening that McCain's campaign would never allow him to be part of a 'faith debate' like Clinton and Obama, because he, (McCain) is very uncomfortable in that setting. If McCain were as sincere about his faith as his campaign would have us believe, he would be just as comfortable there as the others. McCain is all about getting the Vietnam war right after all these years, and the foreign policy debacle in the Middle East to him seems the perfect opportunity to show the enemy he's the boss. (Napoleonic complex, maybe?) I think nothing else explains his determination to remain in Iraq when every military expert and AlQaeda expert indicates that Iraq is our greatest detriment to defeating AlQaeda. McCain is an old man with a bad temper, perfectly willing to abandon his 'straight talk' to garner a vote at the drop of a hat. He's a living lie.

Obama claims faith has been so important to him for 20 yrs that he couldn't walk away from his Rev Wright because he was a father figure and his pastor - yet he very glibly stated the other day what he truly believes about faith - people use faith as a crutch. They turn to faith and/or guns when they are bitter and life deals them a bad hand. For most so-called Christians, I think he's right - faith means little to them except for what they hate. But he can't have it both ways. If he values faith and truly believes, I don't see him assuming so easily that other Christians believe in God only because they are down and out. Makes me wonder if his decades long involvement with this church was a social choice for his family, his career, etc., and not a matter of faith at all. Also, I don't think anyone could doubt that however the communication transpired, Obama really did indicate to the Canadians that 'he was just funnin' about the free trade question. He's an okay man, but he lies....

Hillary is okay too - just wish she hadn't told that whopper about Bosnia. If you are gonna lie, girl, please be smart about it!

Billary, the reason for the Bumper Sticker is not to tell people how good you are, but to let them know you are a Democrat. For a couple of decades now, Republicans have assumed that all good people were Republicans - time to set that straight.

Bold, I've said I would support the Dem. nominee several times now. I have not spewed hatred against Clinton--I generally cite sources and evidence for disliking her as a candidate. As for being arrogant, was it because I've point out several times how you simply don't understand the content of my posts? Sorry, but you call me names regularly too ("JD, Are you mentally challenged?"). It just sounds worse when I do it because I go for the body slam, parse and dissect everything said.

And Old Blue Eyes, you completely missed the point of me calling you an ass. Basically, my post 2 minutes later nulled your entire premise that I wouldn't be willing to look at polls that show Clinton's getting better (relatively) in the general election. Further, in which of my posts above have I refused to cite hard evidence for my beliefs? Seriously. I do it post after post, and the best response I usually get is "Oh, poor JD, he's beyond recovery." You blindly support, Clinton. Period.