Epitaph for Dixie?
Surging black voter numbers and dispirited Republican voters -- as evidenced in primary voting this year: Do they signal an end to Republican dominance of the South? Maybe, the NY Times suggests. Just don't expect miracles in Mississippi for a black candidate.
But what about Arkansas? Clinton would carry the state. Will Obama?







Comments
Of course this is just anecdotal, but I believe all the Hillary backers I know would support Barack. From what I can see, this election is more about Bush than anything else. This country wants the anti-Bush. That certainly ain't McCain.
Posted by: hugh mann
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May 16, 2008 07:46 AM
I wish I could be sure, Hugh. While I have many qualms about an Obama presidency, I'm terrified of a McCain win. Sadly, too many folks I know would vote for George Bush again rather than vote for "that n*****, that Muslim, that terrorist, that anti-Christ, that . . . , that . . ., that . . ." Give them a "genuine war hero" and they're going gaga already. Add the ridiculous issue of gay marriage again in the news, a la 2004 -- well, same old rabbit hole?
Addendum: I believe Max noted that the California court which put the gay marriage issue back in the news in another presidential election year was dominated by Republicans. Sorry, but I feel my paranoia rising like gorge.
Here we go, biting off our nose to spite our face.
Posted by: Doigotta
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May 16, 2008 08:28 AM
Clinton would only carry Arkansas b/c of some misplaced regional pride on the part of Arkansas voters, though. Right? I mean, the state did go with Bush, Jnr TWICE.
Posted by: spinsouth
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May 16, 2008 08:46 AM
George Bush's approval ratings are in the tank, which means a lot of people who voted for him no longer approve of his performance. However, these people still cling to the notion that their reasons for voting for Bush were valid, and they will vote for John McCain just to assert that they were right even if Bush screwed everything up. A vote for Obama or Clinton would be an admission that they were wrong, and that ain't gonna happen.
Posted by: Pavel
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May 16, 2008 09:11 AM
I anticipate McCain will carry Arkansas. I love my state but I don't think its ready to go for someone so "different" as Obama. Hillary probably would win Arkansas, but so what. They have different paths to winning the electoral college involving some different states but either would do it.
Posted by: JuneOf44
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May 16, 2008 09:35 AM
I hope I feel better as November approaches, but today I'm not at all convinced that Obama can win any of the toss up states and I'm fairly certain he would lose Arkansas. I think there is still too much racial prejudice south of the Mason Dixon. If you listen to the media or read the blogs you believe there is no problem, but if you talk to average people in the street, you quickly learn the problem is huge - at least right now.
Like Doigotta, I fear a McCain presidency more than anything else right now and try as I might, I can't convince myself that we are headed for anything else right now.
Maybe we will see Democrats really get behind this candidate and we will have the sweeping wins so many think are coming, but I'm just not sure at this time.
Posted by: Ci.Ci
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May 16, 2008 09:57 AM
If Bill would campaign in Arkansas on Obama's behalf and maybe even an appearance by Hillary too, Arkansas might be competitive though I'd give a slight edge to McCain even then. Arkansas would be a prime test case of how hard the Clintons are going to work to elect Obama. I'm not hopeful myself, but am willing to be pleasantly surprised. Obama' s camp probably knows not to waste any of their resources in Arkansas unless the Clintons throw in with them. Obama's path to victory does not run through Arkansas.
Posted by: Rackensacker
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May 16, 2008 09:57 AM
My man/woman on the street gauge does not bode well for November. While it's true my circle of friends/acquaintances is unusually eclectic, I think it's a somewhat accurate reflection of Arkansas. They ain't going to vote for Obama...because of Hillary and because of his 'strangeness'...not his skin color. The best we can hope for is that they won't vote for McBush either. The only sign of progress is that there are a few who are NOW willing to vote for Hillary...a major shift from a few years back. She use to be 'just' the shrill lesbian bitch who they couldn't abide...yet couldn't give one real reason why. Now she's, well, better than the alternatives.
I also know a lot of women who've become ardent Hillary supporters...mainly because they see her struggle as similar to their own...right or wrong. People can argue all they want that the media haven't been unfair to Hillary, but these women know better; and they know how they've been treated in comparison to the men surrounding them. It's actually amazed me to see women who've treated the term feminist as something vile, something to avoid, take on Hillary's struggle in a very personal manner. Mostly these are working women (outside the home as compared to working their ass of in the home) who've had years of watching mediocre men, younger/more inexperienced men, pass them by power and money wise. (Think of retail, think of office workers...men are still managers, women still doing the work.) When Hillary gets pissed on, they feel it. And it doesn't matter than Obama is not the culprit.
I just pray to every entity I can conjure that the country/world/I don't have to endure a third Monkeyboy presidency. ANYONE is better than McBush...including my teen neighbor. I can't even fathom the Supreme Court when McBush gets done with it...
Posted by: zelda
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May 16, 2008 10:25 AM
I agree, Zelda, except that I believe many of those who call Obama "strange" are really just masking racism. I think if he were white they would see nothing "strange" about him. If you ask me today, I don't believe Obama can win in the general election and that was and is the only reason I so strongly supported Hillary. I also believe Hillary believes Obama cannot win in November and that is partly why she has hung in there so long.
I will be the happiest Democrat on earth if I am wrong and I will work very hard to be sure I am wrong, but today I'm not feelin it.........
Posted by: Ci.Ci
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May 16, 2008 10:41 AM
I can fathom it.
You know what scares me about people wanting to overturn Roe v. Wade? That case not only allowed the right to choose...but was the first real decision that asserted a Constitutional right to privacy.
I think it's pretty important to know that the Government cannot spy on me without probable cause.
Amendment XIV:
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
What kills me is, Strict Constructionists seem to think this Amendment means nothing.
If you want to interpret the language of the Constitution as written, how can you ignore an entire Amendment? Especially one in the Bill of Rights. Clearly this Amendment was part of the Framer's intent.
I would prefer to have Justices that err on the side of granting PEOPLE rights over granting GOVERNMENT rights.
-Look at the 'conservative' judges...they reduce the need for warrants, make wiretapping easier, allow more Executive powers, and voted for a Bush presidency.
-Look at 'liberal' judges...they give women the right to choose, people the right to privacy in their dealings, granted legal equality to black men after the conservatives insisted on separate but equal, and they voted against a Bush presidency.
Which judges do I want? No-brainer. Liberal all the way.
Posted by: JK
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May 16, 2008 10:42 AM
Remember how Gore didn't want Bill campaigning for him? Obama won't make that mistake. Look for Hillary to do some serious damage to the Republicans this fall. I think she will be a significant factor in his election and he'll find a way to reward her for it. And as Senate Majority Leader she'd have more power than the V.P.
Posted by: The Levee
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May 16, 2008 11:09 AM
Some of y'all are just determined to be pessimists if you can't have Hillary win. The national political environment for Republicans is abysmal. Bush has an approval rating under 30%. The GOP is losing congressional races in Mississippi. The Wash Post poll earlier this very week shows Obama leading McCain 51-44. It shows 12% admitting to being uncomfortable with a black President and 39% being uncomfortable with one who is 72 years old, showing McCain's age just might be a bigger factor than Obama's blackness. And electoral college scenarios show how Obama will win no matter how many people in Arkansas you know who won't vote for him.
Posted by: JuneOf44
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May 16, 2008 11:09 AM
I hope you're right, June. But I'm afraid of all those antis coming out of the woodwork. They did it in 2004 when their preachers railed against the mere possibility of gay marriage here and there. Just wait until those same preachers get riled up about the "Muslim schoolboy" in Obama. And that's not even addressing what's being said on the church house steps after services, to say nothing of what's being said in beauty shops, barber shops and tractor equipment dealerships.
Maybe I am determined to be a pessimist. Or maybe you're determined to be a Pollyanna. As much as I hate to be wrong, I hope I am on this one. We'll see.
Posted by: Doigotta
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May 16, 2008 11:35 AM
I hope with all my heart, June, that it's just pessimism on our part and not that you are indeed whistling past the graveyard. At this time, it isn't just Arkansas. Current polling seems to show McCain is favored in many areas despite the sorry state of Republicanism.
Posted by: Ci.Ci
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May 16, 2008 11:35 AM
From today's ARDEMGAZ letter section:
"Though being born in this great nation does not release us of our obligation, it does give us more freedom than any other nation on Earth. We are about to elect a president who will lead us for the next four years. The direction he leads troubles me greatly.
The front-runner was born to a Muslim father. It seems the man cannot wear the American flag pin and worshiped with a pastor who is hell-bent on calling God's wrath down on us, and his opinions are based on which direction the wind blows.
When I hear our National Anthem or think about bombs bursting in air or see Old Glory, shivers run down my spine. I am not ready to turn our country over to someone we know little about. As a taxpaying disabled veteran I will not vote to give our country away. We have a war to fight. It's called an election. Will you stand with me? Now is the time to start. There are many ways to get the word out. Let's get busy. Remember, freedom isn't free."
ROBERT H. MOTES Van
Buren
Posted by: Rev. Mojo Ryson
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May 16, 2008 12:06 PM
You're right, Ci.Ci, about some hiding their racism behind the 'strange' label. But I know of a few, my father-in-law being one, who wouldn't have a problem voting for a black man if he was Joe Smith from Searcy. Many Arkansans, especially the elderly, aren't world travelers, aren't 'sophisticated' enough to wind their way through Obama's multicultural background (where in many places, especially urban, this would be an asset). And they get bogged down trying to separate the truth from the swiftboating crap. They just know that he's different from any other person, black or white, that they've known in Arkansas. (Except for leaving to fight in WWII, my father-in-law and wife have never gone anywhere except to visit their children...strange vegetables/fruit confound em...and I love em.)
I so hope you are right, June, I PRAY you are right! But it wasn't like Dubya was popular in 04; and it isn't like Republicans are going to cross over for Hillary or Obama...despite all the lies they're spreading now. Best we can hope for are those so-called independents...hope their hatred for President Shit for Brains transcends their wariness of a woman or a black man. Of course, it's always possible that record number of Dems will come out and vote...PLEASE!!!
Posted by: zelda
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May 16, 2008 12:29 PM
Zelda is correct about the non-travelers.
Ironic our state mascot is the Traveler when our residents are probably among the least traveled on the planet.
People who have been around the world have an entirely different point of view than your typical Arkie. That's what I like about Obama. And he's 46 years old.
Hell, Bush had never been out of the country before being elected Prez.
I have steered dozens to Snopes.com debunking Obama's won't pledge of allegiance, Muslim schooled bullshit.
I doesn't do any good. Rednecks have their mind made up. Get ready for McCain/Huckabee '08.
Hannity-Limbaugh Mission Accomplished
/sigh
Posted by: Rev. Mojo Ryson
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May 16, 2008 12:56 PM
GAWD,,,how depressing!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you think idiot isn't looooooved, tune in to c-span every morn at 6..........................
makes me gag...........
Ci.Ci...check your e-mail ....news flash
Posted by: jazzy
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May 16, 2008 01:19 PM
As excited as I am about the mere possibility of having a Democratic White House to work with what may be an increasingly Democratic Congress, I have this nagging concern: Very little would change. The supporting evidence? Pelosi and Reid and the rest of the Democrats on the Hill have not lived up to their promises to help dawn a new day. Apparently, it's going to take an energetic, well-funded third party to get this country turned around. Don't see it rising with the sun anytime soon.
Posted by: durangokid
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May 16, 2008 01:43 PM
JK,
The landmark decision on privacy predates Roe v. Wade considerably. It was in Griswold v. Connecticut that the right to privacy implied (though never explicitly stated) in the Constitution was established by the Supreme Court, eight years before Roe.
Posted by: John A Arkansawyer
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May 16, 2008 08:35 PM
durango I could almost side with you. However, keep in mind the Rwingers did the damage and won elections by using extreme partisanism. Most libs won't do it to the extreme that R's did it. Now it's blowback for Rs.
Also recall that Congressional leadership is by popular or plurality vote. Who gets the most votes wins.
How the hell Harry Reid, god bless his soul, got it is beyond me. I agree it needs to be more aggressive.
Rohm Immanuel would be great for House leadership. However, many committee chairs are much more powerful than Speaker or Senate Majority Leader.
Posted by: L.Wood
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May 17, 2008 05:42 AM
Good points, L.Wood.
Posted by: durangokid
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May 17, 2008 11:33 AM
Click my blue name (or the word link if it looks like a link--I've seen HTML in comments elsewhere in Arkansas Times blogs recently) to see two consecutive comments on why Al Gore is to blame for the sorry state of the world in a long and satisfying thread of Republican bashing in one of my very favorite blogs of all time.
Posted by: John A Arkansawyer
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May 17, 2008 02:35 PM