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Split decision?

So it would appear at this post. Everybody called North Carolina for Obama the moment the polls closed. If a third of the vote was black and Obama got 91 percent of it, as exit polls showed, Clinton would have needed 70 percent of the white votes to win. Wasn't going to happen, not nearly. He'll have a huge win there.

With 20 percent of the vote counted in Indiana, Clinton is ahead by 14 points, but nobody wants to call it. It seems likely she'll win there. If so, the biggest loser of the night is Zogby polling, which gave Obama the lead in Indiana. He's been crazily wrong before on other occasions this year.

On to June 3.

This note. About half of Clinton voters told exit pollsters they wouldn't vote for Obama in the fall. But, as the commentators are emphasizing, many Republicans and independents are voting. So the unhappy Clinton voters may or may not be disaffected Democrats. They may be those avidly sought crossover voters.

You tell me.

UPDATE: An Obama landslide in North Carolina, as expected. A squeaky win, at best, for Clinton in Indiana where expectations were mixed. Together, it's powerful, maybe unstoppable, momentum for Obama.

Comments

"you tell me" ... ok, i'll give it a shot, how does this sound ?

over a month ago, polling indicated around 25% of Clinton or Obama voters who SAID they would not vote for the other in the GE.

since then, multiply that quarter by 1.5 due to the acrimony/revelations of continued campaigning

that makes 37.5%

anything above that may well be GOP'ers

sound about right ? (pardon the pun)

would help to know what the Obama voters exit polling said about their voting for Clinton...
(and i am assuming you are referring to Indiana voters only)

I'll accept the premise, if you accept that many of those crossovers that were touted previously as an indication of GOP weakness were, in fact, Republicans who voted in the Democrat primary to mess with y'all.

As reported by CBS:

Forty-one percent of Obama voters in Indiana and 44 percent in North Carolina would be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.

HRC has whipped her supporters into a froth of Obama hate. I'm surprised the number's not higher. If I didn't know better, I'd swear Rove is running her campaign.

Bye, bye, Hillary, bye, bye, my love, bye bye.

Old Bill thought he owed this one to you, because he was such a two-faced snake that made you look like such an idiot. The first black presdient couldn't deliver the black vote. He turned on them and then they turned on him. Interesting to see if old Bill and Hill can rally the white Dem troops for Obama. I bet they can't. The Dems have USED the blacks for years. It's time for the black race to rise above the scum of the Democratic party and the Clintons. Personal Responsiblity a word the Dems and the Cllintons don't like. It's always somebody else's fault. Rise UP, break out!

Let's have a party as Kaki and Max's house to honor Obama and his victory. Will Bill Twatney and the Dem party throw a big shindig for Obama in Arkansas. Will Dusty McDaniel and old Beebe endorse Obama. We're watching!!!!!!!! I bet the good old boys in Eastern Arkansas want take kindly to Dusty and Beebe endoring Obama. Well you know why!!!!!!

An interesting passage from the NYT:

In one note that may or may not have relevance today for Senator Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton did extremely well in Indiana's Democratic primary in 1992. The state gave him his largest share of the primary vote (63 percent) of any non-Southern state except West Virginia, according to a handbook of election statistics by Rhodes Cook. Mr. Clinton won every county decisively except Monroe, home of Indiana University in Bloomington, where he beat Jerry Brown by just 2 percentage points.

Dear Hillary,

We forgive you, we understand you are a fighter and were just trying to win a primary. Yes you flamed the flames of hate and divisiveness, clownishly tried to pretend you were somehow a working class girl, demagogued Israel to at every turn to motivate Jewish voters to rally to your side, became more and more belligerent, completely abandoned all issues in favor of personal and right wing style personal attacks, yes you allowed McAullife to reinvent the basic rules of mathematics several times over, embraced Fox news, embraced a retarded gas tax holiday idea, acted more and more like a female version of Karl Rove and generally had very little disregard for the Democratic party OR your conscience...

BUT,

WE FORGIVE YOU. Its okay Hillary and yes its okay to cry, WE FORGIVE YOU!

But its over, please hang up the dynamite your suicide mission is over.

For all of you Lord of the Flies Hillaryphiles... WE FORGIVE YOU TOO

Come on back to the Democratic Party and our nominee Barack Obama

Everything will be just fine.

Sincerely,

The Democratic Party

btw Max, Indiana is gonna be pretty close

Keep on keeping on, Hillary!

You wanted to be an Olympic athlete, but had no athletic ability. Yet you fought on.

You wanted to be an astronaut, but NASA said no. Yet you fought on.

You wanted to be a Marine, but the recruiter - in time of war - overlooked your advanced degrees and seemingly perfect fit for the JAG and said no. Yet you fought on.

You wanted to be a proud woman, who did not need to take your husband's name, but he lost his race for re-election. Yet you took his name and fought on.

You wanted to have a happy marriage, but your husband - for some reason - look for comfort in other with younger women. Yet you fought on.

You want to be President, but you have run into a party which is trying to take away your birthright and give it to an upstart man who had a questionable preacher and very little experience, while refusing to change the rules that you once endorsed. Yet the path to victory is still there.

Fight on Hillary. Fight on!

Congrats on Clinton's win.

With only around 200 delegates left, if Hillary wins by 83% to 17% of the remaining primaries, she overcomes Barack Obama in pledge delegates.

Here's a link to CNN's delegate calculator: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/

Have fun with it, y'all! Remember, anything is possible. No one knows for sure how's gonna end.

Ouch! Orval.....look at the company you're keeping. I had to read the names to tell the difference between you and Red and Billary. Ouch!

My candidate won tonight! All this crap has me sitting on the fence at 50-50. I'm for Obama! I'm for Hillary! I win! While you all have only 1 winner tonight....I have 2! I have them all! Go Hillary! Go Barack! America wins! And FK You John McCain!

Obama survived several weeks of the worst racist attacks America has seen or participated in since the assassination of MLK.. Attacks from a complicit Hillary, Bills Atwater techniques, Limbaugh and the Rove McCainiacs as well as the corporate fascist MSM. yes, Hillary has faced egregious sexism ... but the one who is persevering, deservedly so, is Obama.

It's time for Democrats to quit spending countless D millions of dollars fighting each other for the crossover Limbaugh shenanigans. Those millions need to be spent on the general and the 50 state congressional race strategy which worked so well in '06.

It's time for Democrats to embrace the fact we have the rock star political candidate this year, who is also a constitutional scholar, articulate, and has what it takes the fight to the Republicans now!

The writing has been on the wall since Super Tuesday... stop pretending the words aren't written in English.. and take the fight to the criminal Republican cabal!

Anyone besides me think Senator Claire McCaskill of MO, might be hoping for a VP slot?

Haven't heard of McCaskill mentioned as a candidate, ES. She does come from a swing state, which could be helpful.

At this point I think the most likely VP candidates are: John Edwards (same uplifting message, charisma, and SOUTHERN), Wes Clark (Southern + impeccable national security credentials), and Hillary (mainly because NOT choosing her risks splitting the party since she plans on taking the campaign all the way to the convention). My preference is in the order listed.

From what I have heard in the past few weeks, the Obama hate has nothing to do with the Clintons or their campaign. The Obama hate comes straight from the barely hidden racism of many in the South plus the email saying Obama won't salute the flag and is a Muslim and that apparently originated with a rightwing website long ago. Hillary didn't whip up this hate, it was out there bubbling, ready to erupt if he approached front runner status - which he has.

The last month has peeled 5% of the vote off of Obama. That may make the difference in who is in the White House in January. Wonder what another month may do.

I don't see how you can call it a split decision given the fact that Hillary was expecting to win Indiana by a large margin, like 8 points or more and she expected to stay within single digits in North Carolina and the exact opposite happened. Hillary's silly rhetoric on that moronic gas tax holiday thing and her George W. Bush like "I don't need to listen to experts" lines are what blew it for Hillary tonight. She overplayed that crap.

And let's not forget that Hillary is the one who set the bar for what was important tonight ...

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides."

Oh and one other thing. Hey Max! What happened to that "Obama is in free fall" line you tried to push late last week?

Hummmmmmmmmm, hadn't thot of that.....2 neighboring states????????????
But, it worked for Bill and Al didn't it???
You have to give it to Dems for the best speakers, can't think of one repug who could
give a speech worth a damn, maybe all Dems are members of Toastmasters.

Clinton set the bar? Since when? Obama stated back in April that Indiana would be the "tie-breaker". He obviously was predicting he would win. Seems he set the bar and he didn't quite make it.

I once voted for Mondale, and after that Reagan, Bush, Dole and Bush.

The only way I vote for Clinton is if she runs against Huckabee, but Obama offers promise of something different. Of course he can't deliver. Congress won't allow that, but he offers the chance to unify the country under new leadership.

Let Hillary knock another 10 points off him and you can start thinking about 2012.

Obama/Clinton '08! The only team that can win in November no matter how hard the Republican cheat.

Ci Ci, I didn't mean to suggest Clinton initiated it over the last few weeks, but she and Bill clearly fed like sucker fish off of the GOP racist shark attacks. It was despicable. They all worked together and failed.

That to me speaks a great deal countering the whole electability, he can / can't take it, Clinton argument.

Eureka, what was she supposed to do? She's trying to win and the Right Wing dirties her opponent. She said little or nothing and let Obama deal with it. She didn't rush to his defense, but why should she? I just don't agree that she fanned the flames or did anything out of bounds. If Obama and his supporters are in such pain at what Hillary has said or done, then he doesn't have a chance if he is the nominee.

Gary hasn't been counted yet, folks...

Keep it real, pleas...

According to Kos, Obama could likely pass the 2025 delegate threshold with Oregon on May 25th, assuming Hillary stays in.

Leadership at fanning racist GOP attack flames is not someone I will vote for, ever.

I was the kind of little white southern boy who insisted the black woman..hard working maid, rode in the front seat of grandpa's car, not me, when we took her home after a very long days work in the sixties. Sorry, it's just how I see things, always have.

I expect my president to be a person who has learned these things and no longer has to think about whether or not to reject it whenever and wherever that type of BS happens.

Obama's landslide was bigger than expected.

Hillary is talking now. She's in a total state of denial about the situation.

Leadership at fanning racist GOP attack flames is not someone I will vote for, ever.

I was the kind of little white southern boy who insisted the black woman..hard working maid, rode in the front seat of grandpa's car, not me, when we took her home after a very long days work in the sixties. Sorry, it's just how I see things, always have.

I expect my president to be a person who has learned these things and no longer has to think about whether or not to reject it whenever and wherever that type of BS happens.

Max,

Hillary seems to think the cyclone hit Burma. Must have read her former hometown newspaper.

Maybe she has a sweet spot for Faubus?

Is Hillary watching the same channel that Shrub watches?! And did she just ask for money?!

C'mon...

"I once voted for Mondale, and after that Reagan, Bush, Dole and Bush."

So, mudturtle, you can vote for McBush and keep your record intact of doing nothing good for America in presidential elections.

Could be, but tf pundits like you keep stabbing your candidate in the back trying to bring back the most hated woman in American, it won't matter how I vote.

Viva Hillary!

Si se puede.

Who's trying to bring back Barbara Bush?

I love Barbara's Bush!

Gee, Hillary's speech tonight was wooden. She oughta let Lanny Davis do the talking; he's the real "fighter" in the Clinton camp. And, wow, CNN analyst Jeffery Toobin smells a RAT in Marion County! He suggests the late vote count in Gary is like "Old Chicago politics," and could signal a conspiracy in which county officials are waiting to see how many votes Obama needs and then add that number to his tally. Uh oh. This just in: Toobin's changed his tune; said he's not implying such. Oooooo-eeeeeeee!

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh I have a pix of Laura's bush, wish I could send it for ya'll to enjoy.

Spare us, jazzy. Please.

Oh my! He just might win IN with the vote from Gary, IN.
Wow, what a night, as it is he won HUGE in NC and will (if he does) IN by just 4 points.
Teflon?

But, Durango,,,,its sooooooo cute..................

I will display more class than to suggest that Barbara Bush blows migrant laborers behind the barn. It is my opinion that migrant workers have better taste than to mess with that old sow. old sow old sow.

God that felt good! What I don't understand about most humans....in order to support their candidate they have to hate the other one. Once years ago I fell in love with another woman. Problem was, I failed to fall out of love with my wife. Time straightened all that out with no dead bodies or broken china left behind.

I have never not liked Barack Obama. I am scared enough to want what we had with Bill Clinton. Those 8 years seem like one long lasting orgasm compared to the nasty-ass misery of the Bush years. Therefore I was backing Hillary, not cause I want to sleep with her, but for the safety of my family and the USA and the poor old battered world. With Hill we get Bill.

Obama made 2 or 3 moves that amazed me. His offer to gay Americans. His attempt to speak the truth about the current state of race relations in our country. I was almost in his camp when the Rev. Wright deal came along. I was disappointed that Barack chose the most politically expedient thing to do and turned his back on his preacher friend. Some day we'll all settle down and admit that there is little wrong with what Rev. Wright said....the truth hurts sometimes, grow up.

Tonight I am 100% for Barack O'Clinton. I'm dead even. As I've said, I'm grown, I quit falling in love with politicians a long time ago. I want good government, good open minded government for even the least among us. I think we'll get that with either Clinton or Obama. I don't have a worry about either of them....they're both good. Look...we're currently looking up from the bottom of the toilet and I see big turds floating all over our White House. Mike Gravel would be a gift from heaven over Bush-Cheney-McCain.

And think about this....our next President will have a target on his or her back so we better get a very very capable VP for insurance. And we still have to worry about there being an election come November. As hard as I try to imagine, I don't think I can imagine how much evil there is afloat in the country. By the time we get to Nov. 5th, no one will remember Obama's preacher's name....so much ugly, scary shit is going to hit the fan as the neo-cons throw the kitchen sink in order to save all the power they've stolen and killed for.

We're babes in the wood at the moment. Our noses are fixin to be opened.....bad bad stuff is heading our way. That's why I want an Obama/Clinton ticket, then we all can pull together and maybe have a ghost of a chance of overcoming the RNC evil. Think!

At this moment it's 51-49, with 91% reporting.

Can Barack squeak out a win?

Hillary's slim lead in Indiana is melting away. Tim Russert just announced that she has cancelled tomorrow's scheduled appearances on the morning news shows.

It's not over yet!

There's a parable about counting chickens that seems to apply here....I can't for the life of me remember.

I quit counting my chickens when GOPers like Orrin, Hatched.

This is amazing..........didn't expect this outcome tonight.
Yes, Hillary bowed out of all morning news shows tomorrow......
there will be some big pow wow's tomorrow among the powers that be.
I'm ready to shovel the shit on McBush,,,there is sooooo much shit to expose.

I agree completely with DBI. I can be delighted with either of these two in the WH. But, I do get annoyed when Hillary is painted as doing something dirty by just trying to win. She's actually treated Obama with kid gloves, and I don't think the response of the media and his supporters indicates a lot of staying power. He's everybody's darling (except a large group of Reagan Dems who won't touch him), but what will he be without Hillary as a foil? Who knows...... I'm thinking he is to light weight to take what the dirty Republican machine is gearing up for him.

Looks like "Operation Chaos" was a bust.
Maybe Rush's time is finally over.

So much for the "new politics" eh, jazzy?


At 11:15 Indianapolis results were not determined. That's the big one. But, Hillary will trim down the rhetoric.

Recall 1980 R primary? Not you Red, still playing with Jaws toys. Reagan and Bush I tore each other apart. Bush termed Raygun's economic pronouncements as "voo-doo economics." Raygun said Bush is a wimp. At one point Raygun shouted Bush down during a debate. When the dust settled and wounds quit bleeding in June of 80, Raygun won, and took on the diplomatic Bush as his running mate.

When a party has the first black man making a serious challenge and his competitor is woman expect all sorts of sparks to fly. It's historic and such a precedent setting primary would never be calm and polite.

We can be thankful for the picture of McCain hugging up Monkey Boy, of McBush's admission that the Iraq Invasion and Occupation is about oil and that he thinks it should go on for 50 years. Pictures say a 1000 words.

.

speaking of "kid gloves" and "just trying to win"

imagine the delicate balance one had to effect in order to overtake the overwhelming favorite who is also, a woman, the wife of a former popular Democratic President, who's white, with both a boatload of experience AND baggage? (without overdoing it?)

now imagine those constraints removed?

all Obama has to do is tell the truth about McCain's association with 8 years of incompetence, arrogance, the economy, the war, criminality in the DOJ, etc.etc.etc.

and the bonus? another two or three dozen DEM reps in the HoR and perhaps a filibuster proof majority in the Senate (while telling Mr. Lieberman to go Cheney himself?)

Borrowing an old boxing metaphor ..all Obama really needs to do, is float like a butterfly etc.. and draw out the famous McCain temper while wearing him down.. Considering how much MSM allows GOPers to hide, we need more time than taking the primary all the way to the convention, to focus on McCain and circumvent the corporate media.

25 percent of Republicans have switched over to vote against their nominee apparent in some states... A lot of that is Limbaugh shenanigans, but it also reflects a huge amount of Republicans who are no fan of McCheneyCain, with only one place to go.

I do think it's possible the Republicans could throw out McCain for some other extremist in their convention. Or start a war with irn, Bush step down while declaring Marshall law and distributing blanket pardons... leaving Cheney in charge and writing a pardon for Bush... Just who would replace Cheney could be the question.

DBI is right... the GOPers are not about to give this multi trillion dollar killin' and lootin' spree up without a very messy fight.

"And think about this....our next President will have a target on his or her back so we better get a very very capable VP for insurance."

Good point to bring up, D...great point, actually...

Would you like to have a young 'urn at the helm inheritin' this mess or a seasoned (arguable, by the way) veteran?

I say let Barack try first...let me explain...and I are just a simpleton...

He can take the flak and know when to keep his head down and when to charge...so to speak...

Hillary might just be draggin' knuckles and makin' pain felt on the Thug side of the aisle...which is something I don't mind a bit, except we need some serious healin'...

I would love for Hillary to be the thumpin' vice...she'd make Dickie Chain-yank look like a pansy (like NC gov says)...

---break time---

Anderson Cooper has no control as usual...

---break time over---

Now when we get to the general attitude of the Party (didn't everyone get their survey from Chairman Dean?) I feel better today than yesterday...granted, mrs. rosso is out of town and the two kiddos get to do whatever and love me for it but, my support for Barack will go all the way until a Party person tells me otherwise...but...BUT...I'll sell my nertz to see Hillary elected if that's the deal...I am the Party loyalist...look at stoopid yard...

Anyway, I feel good about being a registered Democrat today...and I'll sport my new sticker when it's time...whomever the nominee is...

-aside-

I just saw Deep Purple sell out on a Jag commercial..."Hush"...happens to be a great LP, yo...


Iowa Electronic Markets have handed the nomination to Obama by 50 points. That's one of the largest spreads I've ever seen. See DConv08.
In terms of victorious party Dems are barely in the lead. After the nomination is complete that market should stabilize for a month or two.

click blue name.

Yeah, I do. I also remember the 1980 D convention. How did that turn out. Was the "dream still alive" for Dems then?

Since when is taking a quote woefully out of context speaking the truth?

I guess you can do that in the "new politics" because context is not a "distraction" on the par of taking money from known terrorists, or finally being proud of a country, or describing rural residents as bitter and clingy, or associating with a shady businessman, or telling a foreign government that his pandering rhetoric is just for show, or sitting in a church for 20 years then selling out a pastor when his diatribes finally made it to the live desk.

Nah, in Obama-land that is a distraction. However, editing quotes to suit your needs is the "new politics."

Apparently the talking heads think the reason Clinton canceled all appearances is because she's officially dropping out of the race.

Among the evidence: Clinton didn't ask for donations in her latest email.

I'm not going to hold my breath.....but, heck, I'm really excited with the possibility it may be over. Too bad I have a final tomorrow that I'm going to fail because I've been hooked on this race.

Well, Muleboy, I saw Obama become the overwhelming sentimental favorite of the media as soon as they winced at Bill mentioning Jesse Jackson had previously won SC. For some reason unknown to me, pointing out the obvious suddenly became a racist attack and Obama sailed after that. Most of his problems after that time were caused by his associates - Michelle's statement about being proud of America for "the first time", and then Rev. Wright, followed by Obama's "bitter" comments which revealed his true feelings about religion, and then we had Rev. Wright again. Yes, Obama's had had it tough, but it didn't come at the hand of Hillary Clinton.

At any rate, I hope for all our sakes it ends tonight and I think it will. I'm not sure the best candidate has won, but I will support him 100%. I also recognize that any Dem who wins in Nov will be branded a failure because this mess can't be fixed in 4 yrs and probably not in 8. The voters are fickle and expect a few snaps of the fingers to right the ship of state and that ain't happening. So winning isn't necessarily a prize - but at least they won't do more harm and may stop the building from collapsing altogether.

Goodness...Gary's mayor needs to get off the phone...jeez...

I can feel all of the "blue" monikers getting puffy...

>>However, editing quotes to suit your needs is the "new politics."<<

Depends upon the meaning of "is"

AR Reds hysterical defensive lie reminds me of something I read and need to verify soon. About twenty thousand people have died from terrorism in the last 40 years. One could probably develop a theory which suggests more people have died from infections do to an ingrown hair than terrorism in the last 40 years. More people have probably died from NOT smoking than terrorism in the last 40 years.

So when we spend half to one trillion per year swatting terror-flies (and globally killing innocent people) for shrill wimpy GOpers like Red (bless his heart)... remember the odds...and each time a GOPer utters the word terrorist it should be considered as despicable as yelling fire in a movie theater.

Eureka...perhaps you do need to verify your facts before attacking others, lest you appear as a condescending, blithering idiot.

"HRC has whipped her supporters into a froth of Obama hate."

The Clinton hate and attacks on her by
people like you have caused the "Obama
hate." Reading the posts by some of you
on here makes me almost root for McCain.
Obama has attacked Clinton more than
she has attacked him. Just because the
pro-Obama press says it is the other way
around doesn't make it so.

mudturtle says, "I once voted for Mondale, and after that Reagan, Bush, Dole and Bush."

Let's see: Bush, 2000. Dole, 1996. Bush, 1992. Reagan, 1988. Mondale, 1984.

What's wrong with this picture?

"Eureka!", Eureka, say it again and often. This farce called a "war on terror" is the greatest fraud perpetrated on the citizens of the world in my life time. I do not believe anyone, other than the seriously mentally challenged, worries about 'terrorism' in their everyday life. I am much more at risk driving to Walmart than from any terrorist attack. I am much more at risk from an intruder during the night in my home that any terrorist. It was crap, it is crap, and will remain crap unless McCain is elected and then we might genuinely find terrorists on every street in the US. He, like Bush, has the recipe for creating them memorized.

"I once voted for Mondale, and after that Reagan, Bush, Dole and Bush"

Unless you're talking about voting for Mondale as Vice President, that scenario is impossible.

Moxie, you are a moron! They could have easily voted Mondale in the primary and Reagan in the general...

You're right. I overlooked that scenario. I suppose they could have also voted Reagan as a write-in in 1988. And they could have been talking about voting for Mondale as a Senator and Reagan as a Governor. Also they could have been talking about JEB Bush and Elizabeth Dole. There I go, assuming too much.

More to the point, why would I, as a Democrat, care about the advice of someone who voted Mondale in the primary and Reagan in the general, then voted Republican through 2000 (at least)?

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