50-state race?
The latest Zogby polling (it hasn't been so hot this year, but .... ) has Obama ahead of McCain in Arkansas, 41-39 and 4 for Bob Barr. It's a statistical tie, but still .... Writes Zogby:
Will minority turnout and Bob Barr make this a nail-biter? Will Bill Clinton make any homecoming trips on behalf of Obama?
Electoral Votes: 6, Too close to call
If Obama challenges McCain in Arkansas, that means he really has a 50-state strategy and, if the primary is a guide, he also has the money to carry the fight to the old man.



Comments
I'm going to be the first to debunk this and say Zogby doesn't know what it's doing.
Why? Well, I don't know their history, but at the very least, they have Obama polling ahead of McCain in Arkansas, which is plumb impossible.
Posted by: JD
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July 9, 2008 11:51 AM
is Barr assured a place on Arkansas' ballot ?
p.s. what's the deal with all the banks in Baxter Co. and why did Huckabee only get 44% of the primary vote there ?
Posted by: muleboy303
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July 9, 2008 12:03 PM
Zogby might be wrong but look at the graph on this link:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/arkansas.html
Posted by: LAJ-Hillcrest
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July 9, 2008 12:05 PM
Interesting graph LAJ--and it uses Rasmussen, which usually has the most conservative estimates.
Factors:
-Clinton
-Arkansas' weird political tendencies
-Arkansas Dems base
-Minority vote
-Newspaper Publications?
Posted by: JD
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July 9, 2008 12:18 PM
Somewhere in Northwest Arkansas a Republican's head is exploding.
Personally, I think Satan, if he ran on the Republican ticket, would beat Obama in Arkansas. Not that the freepers and the fundies don't already think Obama is Satan, but you get my meaning.
Posted by: Duh
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July 9, 2008 12:42 PM
whoops. sorry y'all.
Posted by: ettiem
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July 9, 2008 01:13 PM
hey admin, thanks for removing my duplicate post, but why remove the original as well?
anyway, to repeat, the emailing from the state's democratic party sent around a day or two ago talks about the upcoming state convention and their agenda and other stuff. curiously missing is any mention whatsoever of our democratic candidate for the president of the united states. not a single word.
"Arkansas' weird political tendencies" indeed.
ARK. BLOG: It was too long.
Posted by: ettiem
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July 9, 2008 02:09 PM
You know, I like the results of the Zogby map, but you have to be leary of anything that shows Obama ahead *in Arizona*. Note that the Arkansas results have 8% voting for "somebody else." I wonder if that somebody's initials are "Hillary Clinton."
Posted by: Archaeopteryx
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July 9, 2008 02:14 PM
I skimmed it while it was still posted. I noticed the Republican candidate for pres got several mentions but none for the Dem. WTF?
Posted by: Moxiemoron
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July 9, 2008 02:17 PM
Well Arky Demos should stand up and help take credit. The way the money is rolling toward BHO looks like he's their Great Black Hope.
(heh, heh, I said Hope)
Again, CASH talks and Bullshit walks: Iowa Electronic Markets on my blue name
ettiem, I too dislike censorship but one of those DPA posts was too long, two was being a hog. Isn't there a DPA website that offers the same thing?
Posted by: eLwood
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July 9, 2008 02:30 PM
Unless Obama sends a whole lot of money Hillary's way to help pay off her debts, don't expect Bill to do Obama any favors. As far as the Clintons are concerned, Obama is a scum bag SOB who stole Hillary's spot.
Posted by: Severus
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July 9, 2008 02:33 PM
Mission accomplished. Clicky on Cato
Posted by: Cato
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July 9, 2008 03:13 PM
Muleboy, Bob Barr is on the ballot in Arkansas according to www.lp.org.
Looking at the Zogby poll numbers for various states, one can see that Barr is doing surprising well. I think that is all the commentary that is needed on the validity and accuracy of Zogby.
Posted by: PossumKing
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July 9, 2008 03:17 PM
tyvm, pking
per ettiem's lead, i verily scanned the AR DP's website
could not find a single mention of the "presumptive" Democratic Party's nominee for POTUS
and neither a link to said PDPN's campaign website.
most curious.
Posted by: muleboy303
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July 9, 2008 03:47 PM
Ah yes, the Zogby Poll. Which in 2006 had Beebe losing to Hutchinson, and totally missed the huge Democratic sweep that cycle. Not going to make that mistake again, I guess.
Posted by: Polecat
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July 9, 2008 03:54 PM
Unless Obama sends a whole lot of money Hillary's way to help pay off her debts, don't expect Bill to do Obama any favors.<<
For once Service man I'm with you. However, soon as Bill/Hillary see this could be a Clinton-Free presidential election victory watch Bill come back like a hound sneakin upon a biscuit. I truly doubt if the tables were turned and Hillary had slipped in with just enough delegates to say "I won the nomination"
there would be any gratuities to Obama. But, wait! Obama wasn't in debt up to his ears. He had a BIG surplus, still has 3x more than McBush and many times more than HRC. Who needs Bill? And that my friend may just be why the hound slips up on a biscuit.
Posted by: eLwood
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July 9, 2008 04:04 PM
There is a link on the state Dem's website to Obama's site under National Links.
Posted by: Moxiemoron
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July 9, 2008 04:06 PM
two if ya count the baracktv
thank ya mm
Posted by: muleboy303
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July 9, 2008 04:37 PM
May be a 50state brawl if Jesse Jackson rips Obama's balls off as he threatened today...... This could be a fun campaign season!!! I want a front row seat.
Posted by: Ci.Ci
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July 9, 2008 05:16 PM
The silence this afternoon is deafening.
Here is an email I received from MoveOn on Dec. 17, 2007 urging me to call Sens. Pryor and Lincoln to vote against a FISA bill with telecom immunity. I invite you to note the name of the Senator from Illinois in the third parapgraph:
Dear MoveOn member,
There's a fight brewing on the Senate floor today. President Bush wants Congress to give immunity to the phone companies that helped the administration spy on innocent Americans.
This fight strikes at the heart of accountability in our democracy. No president should be able to work with corporations to break the law and then use Congress to cover up the crimes. Holding the phone companies accountable may be the only way that the American people find out the extent of the Bush administration's illegal actions.1
Progressive Senators Chris Dodd and Russ Feingold are pledging to block any legislation that includes "telecom immunity." 2 And presidential candidates Joe Biden and Barack Obama have said they'll support a filibuster.3
It is critical that other senators support Senators Dodd and Feingold . Can you call Sens. Pryor and Lincoln today and tell them to join progressives in the Senate in blocking any bill that includes immunity for lawbreaking phone companies? Tell them voters want accountability and oversight-not immunity.
Here's where to call:
Senator Mark Pryor
Phone: 202-224-2353
Senator Blanche Lincoln
Phone: 202-224-4843
Then, please report your call by clicking here:
http://pol.moveon.org/call?tg=FSAR_2.FSAR_1&cp_id=665&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=2
An investigation into the illegal wiretapping could expose how far Bush and the telecoms went in breaking the law. President Bush keeps insisting that his illegal spying program was narrow and only targeted at suspected terrorists. But AT&T whistleblower Mark Klein-who has firsthand knowledge of the program-says the program was a massive invasion of Americans' privacy and AT&T is covering up the truth:
"They want to portray it like the president does, that it's a handful of international phone calls. That's the sound-bite, and that's not true. It affects millions of people domestically." 4
That's why the Bush Administration and the telecom companies are desperately seeking immunity to conceal their crimes. AT&T has even hired a consulting company headed by John Ashcroft, Bush's former Attorney General, to lobby for immunity.5
We need the Senate to stand up to their pressure and hold them accountable, not aid their cover-up.
Can you call Sens. Pryor and Lincoln today and tell them to join progressives in the Senate in blocking any bill that includes immunity for lawbreaking phone companies?
Thanks for all you do.
-Nita, Tanya, Laura, Jennifer and the MoveOn.org Political Action Team
Monday, December 17th, 2007
Sources:
1. "Congress Stand Firm: America Deserves A Legal Decision on Warrantless Wiretapping," Electronic Frontier Foundation, October 10, 2007
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/archives/005480.php#005480
2. Statement from Senator Chris Dodd on a filibuster, October 20, 2007
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3088&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=3
"Intelligence bill may hinge on immunity for telecoms," USA Today, November 27, 2007
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3270&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=4
3. "Obama Camp Says It: He'll Support Filibuster Of Any Bill Containing Telecom Immunity," TPM Election Central, October 24, 2007
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3102&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=5
Live Chat with Senator Joe Biden, Washington Post, October 19, 2007
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3089&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=6
4. "AT&T Whistleblower: Telecom Immunity Is A Cover-Up," Talking Points Memo, November 7, 2007
http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/004662.php
5. "Key Senators Raise Doubts on Eavesdropping Immunity," New York Times, November 1, 2007
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3269&id=11811-8570626-n5CTFS&t=7
PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, http://pol.moveon.org/
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
I bring this up because the junior senator from Illinois today voted for the FISA bill, and I have not been exhorted by MoveOn to donate any money so that they can take out a full-page ad in the New York Times to call the junior senator from Illinois by some colorful sobriquet (Sen. Betray-Us?) as a means of condemning the junior senator from Illinois' vote for granting immunity to telecoms who participated in the warrantless wiretap program.
I also did not receive an email from MoveOn asking me to donate money so that they can take out a full-page ad in the New York Times praising such progressive icons as Sens. Kerry, Biden, Dodd, Schumer, and Reid for voting for civil liberties instead of against them, as the junior senator from Illinois did.
I did not receive an email this morning, or yesterday, or the day before, telling me - like MoveOn did in the email of 12/17/07 - to call my senators to urge them to vote in a manner which would have been the opposite of the way the junior senator from Illinois voted this afternoon.
I did not receive an email from MoveOn asking me to call Sen. Durbin (the senior senator from Illinois) to tank him for voting for his fellow Democrat, the junior senator from Illinois.
Finally, I did not receive an email from MoveOn urging me to hold a bake sale, contribute money for an ad campaign, or even donate money - as a means of showing progressive unity - to retire the campaign debt of Sen. Hillary Clinton as a thank you for voting the opposite of the junior senator from Illinois.
I am at a loss for why MoveOn hasn't sent me an email about any of those things.
Can you all help me out?
Posted by: Arkansas Red
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July 9, 2008 06:32 PM
perhaps if you changed your name to "Arkansas Blue", then perhaps MoveOn would add you to their list?
Posted by: muleboy303
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July 9, 2008 06:40 PM
Well, Red, I can't speak for MoveOn as I don't hear from them anymore - told them to remove me from their list, but, the few people in DC for whom I have some respect, all voted against this thing. If there is a reason why they would sit on their hands at Obama's vote on FISA I would say it is the old "party loyalty" thing. I think Mark Twain said something about party loyalty being a "snare" invented for selfish purposes.
Anything to win........
Posted by: Ci.Ci
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July 9, 2008 06:46 PM
Sorry Mule, I get MoveOn emails daily (they are my afternoon laugh material).
All I got today was a note telling me to sign a petition protesting FOX for besmirching Barry Hussein (Peace Be Upon Him) and His (PBUH) Messiah-consort Michelle (May He Be Pleased With Her).
Somehow MoveOn found this more important that advocating for the Bill of Rights.
Posted by: Arkansas Red
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July 9, 2008 07:57 PM