Latest polling trends
Uniformly bad. McCain up nationally and ahead in critical tossup states -- Virginia, Ohio (by an increasing margin) and Colorado.
And how the heck can you beat the man who invented the BlackBerry.
BUT WAIT: Updated tracking polls today show a shift back in Obama's direction. Think somebody read the newspaper.




Comments
The economy should change this. Greenspan saying we can't afford McCain's tax cuts. A "once in a century" type economic disaster according to Greenspan.
You know, assuming that McCain's voters aren't automaton, zombie-Evangelicals.
That's a big assumption.
Posted by: JD
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September 16, 2008 11:21 AM
Don't ever discount the "What's the matter with Kansas?" syndrome. Too many voters are willing to vote against their economic interests to ensure that gays can't marry and that abortion will eventually be banned entirely if they just keep voting to put Republicans into the White House. And don't forget that Barack Obama is black, and so is Michelle Obama. No black president (only they don't use the term black), and no black first lady. I had hoped to die before our country manages to destroy itself, but I may live to see it happen.
Posted by: Pavel
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September 16, 2008 11:31 AM
Pavel we all knew that no country can last forever we just figured no country could go from first to worst in one administration.
Posted by: Citizen home
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September 16, 2008 11:47 AM
I'm so depressed.
Posted by: zelda
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September 16, 2008 12:03 PM
"What's wrong with Kansas?" give me a break. The Democrats nominated a candidate who is openly hostile to free trade. WTF? The one political issue virtualy EVERY economist outside of Venezuala agrees on. Do you think it is my best interest to unilaterally end NAFTA? Its not in my best interest nor in the best interest of 90% of americans. But I suspect too many voters are willing to vote against their economic interests to ensure that gays can marry and that abortion won't be banned.
Posted by: mpan18
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September 16, 2008 12:11 PM
Over at Washington Monthly's Political Animal blog, they want to believe that healthcare is a winning issue for Obama. For many AT Blog regulars, healthcare may be important, but fundies are willing to sacrifice their health and the health of their children to stop abortions and frustrate gays. And keep closet Muslims out of the White House.
Posted by: Pavel
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September 16, 2008 12:14 PM
Gore. Kerry. Obama.
The democrats have made an absolute mess of this for years.
All that is necessary for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing. Or, in this case, next to nothing.
Posted by: Jim
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September 16, 2008 01:23 PM
These economic shocks are intentional. Friedman lives and his Chicago school (economists) minions are both in place, consulting virtually every world leader, including leaders of both major US parties. They not only have a plan for more pain, they have a plan for how to make it worse when we are in shock from what's ahead. It's their template, it's what they do.. and the worse things get for we the people the more money the super rich make due to consolidated ownership/control.
This country desperately needs to learn the dirtiest words in todays political discourse are:
privatization
anti labor rhetoric
deregulation
free trade
free market
Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR
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September 16, 2008 02:14 PM
"All that is necessary for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing. Or, in this case, next to nothing."
Therefore, Jim will be doing nothing. His extent of activism will be typing on a keyboard and muttering softly to himself, "The world's going to hell in a handbasket."
Correct me if I'm wrong.
P.S. The most recent trendlines actually are slightly moving back to Obama, and I really think he still is likely to win. New voter registrations are not covered in polls commensurately to their impact this year.
Posted by: JD
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September 16, 2008 02:17 PM
No, no, no. The polls are not "uniformly bad." What we're seeing is McCain's rapidly evaporating post-convention bounce. If you watch one poll, every day, what you see is that Obama is closing back in. The one I watch--Gallup's tracking poll--has Obama back to within a point after being down by 5 just a week ago. The state polls are slower than the national polls. They don't yet reflect the public's growing familiarity with The Mooseslayer, the near collapse of the banking system, and the media's sudden interest in McCain's, um, lack of veracity.
Hide and watch. This time next week, Obama will be back up by three or four, and the new state polls will be turning those electoral maps blue again. I mean, even Bill C. says Obama is going to win handily, and that's a guy who knows politics.
Posted by: Archaeopteryx
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September 16, 2008 02:22 PM
The race is a long way from being over.
Run, Obama, Run!!!
Posted by: Jake da Snake
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September 16, 2008 02:54 PM
Yeah Jake,
You tell him to just keep running and never stop because we don't want him around here at all!
Posted by: JNYJ
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September 16, 2008 03:15 PM
>>Do you think it is my best interest to unilaterally end NAFTA? Its not in my best interest nor in the best interest of 90% of americans.<<
In a 250 words or less tell us why it's in our best interests to ship our industrial base to other nations, including a lot of our agricultural production?
(Caution: There's been a few nations who have tried it. Spain comes to mind after they looted the Inca gold stocks. I won't tell you the net outcome.)
.
Posted by: eLwood
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September 16, 2008 03:18 PM
JNJY,
Speak for yourself Bubba. I'm for Obama over McCain any day of the week. You've truly been a nattering nabob of negativity if there ever was one.
McCain't: Ain't For the Truth
Posted by: Jake da Snake
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September 16, 2008 03:50 PM
Young people use cell phones--not land lines. Most of these polls probably use land lines. Don't discount the thousands and thousands of newly energized voters who will be voting for Obama, but who are not asked which way they'll vote.
Posted by: hugh mann
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September 16, 2008 04:04 PM
I feel certain that a lot of ugly strategies are going to play out in coming weeks, like the push-poll voter calls targeting the Jewish community the past few days. These will be designed to make us think our votes are futile, or to push us our votes in certain directions.
One of the strategies I feel sure is being cooked up by operatives is to disseminate disinformation on a regular basis, particularly polling disinformation. I think it's important to pay close attention to the polls and not disregard them.
At the same time, it's important to pay CRITICAL attention to the polls, to find out who's doing the polling, what kind of polling is being done, what questions are asked, the samples polled, and so on.
I've noticed a lot of supposedly "objective" participants in blogs like AR Times blogs coming onto blogs to spread deliberate disinformation. I suspect the disinformation campaign about poll results is going to grow even stronger in coming weeks.
To underscore my point so it's not misunderstood: I'm not against the polls. What I'm questioning is how supposedly disinterested parties are spinning polls that are themselves sometimes dubious--precisely to make many folks think their votes just won't count on election day.
Posted by: MuddlingThrough
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September 16, 2008 05:01 PM
"Young people use cell phones--not land lines. Most of these polls probably use land lines. Don't discount the thousands and thousands of newly energized voters who will be voting for Obama, but who are not asked which way they'll vote."
Good point. I can't think of a single fellow-student who opted to use the landline service over their own cell phones. Really, I can't. It's so inconvenient.
Posted by: JD
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September 16, 2008 05:08 PM
It's not only students who use only cell phones, it's older people line me and hubby, too. Ans lots of our friends.
Polls are, however usually accurate. Obama is going to have to get his ass in gear and link McCain with Bush in every ad he runs, complete with the infamous picture of McCain hugging Bush and looking like that he is going to give him a blow job any minute. That will win the election.
Posted by: kizzy
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September 16, 2008 07:33 PM
There are no more Palins to announce, and her favorable/unfavorables are just momentarily in the same spot, but rapidly reversing themselves.
Oh, just heard that Palin cut the Alaska Special Olympics budget in half. Jeesh, and she's gonna be an advocate for special needs kids?
The focus is turning to McCain again, and his "fundamentals," a statement which Obama is nailing to his ass faster than a Mexican roofer.
And the only October surprise we might see is a tape of McCain doing propaganda videos for the Viet Cong.
Posted by: GUMM
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September 16, 2008 07:47 PM
RACISM STILL RUNS DEEP IN WHITE AMERICA. CAN ANYONE REALLY BE SURPRISED? ONLY HILLARY AND BILL COULD HAVE SAVED THIS CANDIDATE. OBAMA MADE A MISTAKE. HE SHOULD HAVE CHOSEN HILLARY FOR VEEP.
Posted by: Arkiebubba
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September 16, 2008 07:49 PM
My parents are NE MO old school union democrats, both in their sixties, and they recently shut their landline off. My wife and I are mid-thirties, and we have no landline.
Most polls have an index to adjust for the likely voters without landlines. I'm not sure the formula of this adjustment, I just know it's built into most polls.
Posted by: whacked
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September 16, 2008 09:46 PM