Arkansas Blog

Volatile, maybe, but they've consistently shown Obama ahead by 4+% for the past 2 weeks.

A cool site is http://fivethirtyeight.com, which performs statistical analysis on poll numbers to determine likely outcomes. Based on today's polls, if the election were held today, there's an 82.8% chance Obama would win.

Or if you prefer, there's http://electoral-vote.com, which just shows straight up polls and awards a state based on the most recent polls.

Remember when Brummett compared Obama's campaign (during his slump) to Kerry and even Dukakis?? Those were the days....

Hokey dokey.

Over on InTrade right now, Obama's ahead by 28 points.

Eh, time seems longer during the election. Obama's been ahead for about 14-17 days, and at least 4 points ahead for around 10 days. He's ahead by about 5-6 on average now. (And many pollsters wonder if they're under-estimating the impact new registrants will have...)

I 'd like to take Joe White's statiticians to court with me the next time I need numbers to come out in my favor....seriously, Joe. You ain'lt gonna beat a safe incumbent. I don't care how involved Beebe and Pryor (Lion or Cub - your pick) are in this race.

I expect Baker to win because he is the Repub and few people know of his scams with Hardin and UCA.

Ok the 20 Yr Old Iowa Electronics Market is startling !
Bush nor Clinton never enjoyed this much margin.

Demo-Obama (Winner take All-WTA)....0.703

Repub-McBush...............................0.295

First time Demo has broken 700 and first time Repub dropped below 300. 40 pt spread !

Ok wingnuts, here's your chance to cash in on yo main man. If he wins a .295 investment pays
one dollar per share. If you buy in today you're lookin at 79% return....provided he can steal it.
Do It!
.

Even on the odd chance I'd ever vote for Baker, this weekend ruined it. I get a call from a number 800-000-0000. I let it go to voice mail. If I don't know who you are, you don't get to talk to me. It was sweet little Mrs. Baker telling me how nice her husband was and how much he's done for me. Bull. I realize that "freedom of speech" issues mean that Gill doesn't have to follow Telemarketing Rules, but wouldn't you think he'd WANT to? Wouldn't a little transparency be a good idea? If this guy can't do the right thing in his campaign calling, how on earth can I trust him with real issues?

When I got a call from Joe White a few weeks back, the caller ID said "Joe White Senate" and the number appeared to be a legit number.

From the NYTIMES----the smoking gun:
September 30, 1999

Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending
By STEVEN A. HOLMES
In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.
The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program b! y next spring.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.
In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.
''F! annie M ae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''
Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.
In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic tim! es. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.
''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''
Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or he! r month ly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.
Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.
Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent.
In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent.
Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings.
In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.
The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.

As far as I am concerned, Mrs. Pelosi and the rest of her scum herd have been finally and unequivocally identified for what they really are: charlatans. She speaks and blames all of the blame on the Republicans and Bush when in reality, as the above documentation proves beyond a doubt, it is the democrats who are totally responsible for this economic mess. Many people and families will suffer because of this incompetency and attempt by the democrats to buy votes from blacks and hispanics.