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A defining debate

Brummett feels the second presidential debate solidified Obama's role as front-runner. But:

Only two things give me pause in declaring an emerging Obama victory next month. One is the ugly and intensified personal attack on him that we can still expect from Republicans. The other is the "Bradley effect," named for the black former mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who always polled a few points better than he ran.

If that's the case with Obama, then he may not really be ahead in some of these tight swing states. Tactically, the way to exploit a Bradley effect would be to make personal attacks on Obama that would give those actually motivated by pure race a supposed cover.

 

Comments

I've been hearing a lot about this Bradley thing; got me to wondering if I know any of the voters afflicted by it...couldn't come up with one. I know more than my fair share of racists...but they'll tell ya straight up they're not voting for a Muslim or a black man...or someone whose middle name is Hussein. Guess that hidden racism is one of those strange California diseases.

I agree with James Carville...if we go into the election with Obama clearly ahead (like Kerry was clearly ahead according to exit polls) and McSame somehow wins...I'm rioting...along with the rest of my Democratic brothers/sisters. I'm not going to sit by and take another stolen election...for that 'the good of the country' crap that Republicans like to use to get a pass on everything. Of course, I may not have the gas to drive far to a riot or the food to fuel my body with...but I'll find a way.

There is no evidence of a Bradley Effect in the last twenty years or so. Nate Silver (click on blue name) says that as a conservative candidate gets farther and farther behind, the talk by right-wing pundits of a Bradley Effect increases. In other words, Bradley Effect = Wishful Thinking.

I'm with you Zelda. Never again.

As for Brummett's analysis...duh. The whole muslim angle is provided so that the closet cotton coneheads among us can pretend they are pretectin' 'merka from the terrsts. Where did you get that wonderful talent for insight, John, K-mart?

The governor of North Carolina indicated that there may be, what he called, a "reverse Bradley effect," in which rednecks vote their wallet in secret why proudly proclaiming their xenophobia in public.

Zelda, I'm with you. I'm ready to hit the streets if they try that crap again.

Oh, and the governor of North Carolina said what I mentioned before while being interviewed last night on Countdown with Keith Olbermann.

As long as the Bradley Effect doesn't = smokescreen for another stolen election.

Never again.

I'm ready to go, too. A million people shut Washington down in the Vietnam protests. 25 million would make them wish they had another bailout to deal with. It is time for the politicians to do the will of the people. Assume half of them are ready (Kucinich, Paul, the real Republicans, etc.) and the job is doable.

We can't take another stolen election if we have any regard for our children's future.

Progressives don't riot, they blog.

Where did you get the idea that 50% of the politicians cared anything about representing the people? From the Arkansas congressional delegation? The vote on the war? The vote on the patriot act? The bailout? Deregulation?

Progressives dont' riot. The only angry mobs are republican.

Technically speaking, I don't think the Bradley Effect is that black politicians poll better than they run; I think it's that white politicians running against black politicians run better than they poll. Meaning the black politicians poll numbers are pretty dead on, while the people who say they're undecided end up going overwhelmingly for the white candidate. I could be wrong, I just read this yesterday.

Talking about protesting, not rioting, and assuming the blogging isn't enough to get the job done. Another tool in the arsenal.

As for half of the politicians being ready, that is optimistic, but we have seen them turn pretty quickly when the screws are tightened.

Always thought Snyder was on our side but am wondering about him. You are right, the Arkansas delegation doesn't offer much comfort.

Thinking about mass protests? Rioting? Donating to organizations that try to protect our Constitution and Bill of Rights and prevent another stolen election?

They got you covered. At clicky.

I don't know if to say many on here are blind or just can't see.
Why would you want a black muslim for your president...
You ignore the truth about abama who is not american at all.
It's gonna be something to see your faces on the national news after you're arrested for your rioting.
One main thing we are over looking and that is the whole demo party are backing this black man for one reason and one reason only, that's to take the spot light off of their sorry asses even if it's only temporary... it will be back on them not long from now.
I have to say most all of them have become national criminals and should be deported.

ONE more good reason to vote Democratic/Obama...
Thank you 'c***v'...

chasv's back? I guess the wingnut vacation to over.

This election will come down to 2 things: skin color and the sharpened, honed, ability of the Republicans to steal their 3rd Presidential election in a row. Nothing else matters. Racists like chasv fool themselves into believing Obama is a Muslim, when in fact that's just an excuse for them not liking his skin color. He's an N word to them....nothing else. Funny thing though.....if Jesus came back I'm betting his skin would be as dark or darker than Obama's. And I bet people like chasv would scream IMPOSTOR and no doubt kill him again.

The paper is full today of stories of legions of Tim Griffins spreading across the swing states knocking people off the voting rolls by any dirty trick they can use. We've seen this before too. And by Tim Griffin not going to jail, it has encouraged others to behave like him. If we don't punish Cheney-Bush.....we'll see more Cheney-Bush administrations in the future too. If laws weren't on the books and enforced, I'd be typing this from between your wife or daughter's legs. Think about that for a minute.

Skin color......I told a black man yesterday that I know far far more scary white folks than I do blacks. I know tons more sorry white folks than I do blacks. You can't paint a whole race of people with the same brush. Imagine being accused of being a chasv...........horror of horrors!

At my blue name is a blast from 2006, when mean old McCain, out of the blue, for no reason, writes a nasty little letter to Barack Obama. Looks like the Massa doesn't like it when one of the slaves dares to send in a letter from the cotton fields. Obama should have known then the way this campaign was going to run. McCain IS that mean old man that everyone hated in your neighborhood. FK him.

chasv- welcome back with your awesome insights! We thought you had gotten trapped under your slimy rock and couldn't get out, even with John 'my friends' McSame and Mooseguts Palin tugging away and trying to extract you.

'.. black muslim ..' chasv

At least you got the race part right. Congratulations! That is your most truthful post ever and is sure to keep you from ever being invited as a guest on Mike Hucka$ee's FUXX News Network show. Too bad, chasv, you blew it, and you were sooooo close to being the man!

No Bradley Effect this year. In fact, what about a Reverse Bradley Effect? Click on the blue name.

HOW many white people you know of that are muslim. Huh? None?

Sound policy. you're not sound!

Dbi why can't you follow the lessons. Jesus is coming back as a lion and you'd better repent of your unbelief before he comes back or you'll be meat cooking in you know where..

"HOW many white people you know of that are muslim. Huh? None? "
Cat Stevens

"The sin which makes you sad and repentant is more liked by Allah than the good deed which turns you arrogant." Imam Ali

You all don't blame me for telling you what'll happen if that black muslim gets elected.. before you know it millions and millions of muslims will be moving here to live and then we'll be f#%k.
They don't let women speak or dress or show their face in public... you women had better wake up.

"The sin which makes you sad and repentant is more liked by Allah than the good deed which turns you arrogant." Imam Ali

Zatharus, What kind of question is that supposed to be? More like a statement than a question.

Somebody needs to tell Michelle Obama to get with the program since Barack is a Muslim. Maybe she doesn't know!!!!!!!!!!

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