Arkansas Blog: Poll watching UPDATE

The Arkansas Poll from the University of Arkansas is out.

As I predicted this morning, it continues to show a good spread for John McCain in Arkansas. The polling was spread over three weeks and I do wonder whether the numbers reflected any movement as the market has continued to crumble and Barack Obama enjoyed generally rising numbers elsewhere (yesterday's dead-heat AP poll a significant outlier)? Poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton would be leading McCain in Arkansas today. 54 percent said they would have voted for her.

PRESIDENT: The poll is out and you can see full details at the link. McCain is up by 13 over Obama, 49-36 (51-36 among registered voters) and, yes, it's still the economy at the forefront of most people's thinking. A significant numer of Dems favor McCain. Full summary on the jump.

GET A SEDATIVE FOR JERRY COX: 55 percent of the more than 1,600 polled OPPOSE INITIATED ACT 1, which would place limits on private adoptions. (55-38 was count.) Though a 2007 poll showed a bare majority of Arkansans supported a prohibition of adoption and foster parenting by gay people (that is the unstated aim of this initiated act), the 2008 poll shows a majority of people oppose a blanket prohibition against both gays and straight unmarried couples, as Act 1 would impose. Let us hope this good news prevails. VOTE NO ON INITIATED ACT 1.

Say "amen" to UA poli/sci prof Janine Parry:

“Personal feelings about an issue can be different from policy preferences,” Parry said. “After looking at this issue for several years, it seems to me that many Arkansans – both liberals and conservatives – are uncomfortable dictating the family arrangements of others, whether they agree with them or not.”

LOTTERY: It enjoys 65 percent support, just about what I would have predicted.

OTHER TIDBITS: 54 percent would have voted for Hillary Clinton for president -- a majority in all four congressional districts. But McCain led Obama in every district. Questions on racial attitudes show scant affection for affirmative action. A healthy majority (59 percent) support allowing undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet certain criteria, such as learning English and paying back taxes. Even the Third District couldn't muster more than 40 percent in favor of the Initiated Act 1, which ought to send a message to the legislative candidates of both parties who've acted as if sufficient homophobia was the primary issue of concern to voters this year.

Respondents were asked party identification. The results by congressional district, Democrats first: 1) 38-20; 2) 35-23; 3) 30-30; 4) 36-21. Rest are independent, other or didn't say. Overall, it was 35-24 Dem.

NOTED: Blacks were underrepresented in the sample. A little more than 9 percent versus almost 16 percent of the state's population. That could swing the presidential results a few points.

Arkansas Poll: In Arkansas ‘It’s the Economy’ and It Is Also McCain

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – In response to the 10th annual Arkansas Poll, a strong majority of Arkansans ranked the economy as the most important problem facing Arkansas. Although this finding lines up with national polling results – results that appear to give Sen. Barack Obama the edge in the presidential race – voters in Arkansas prefer Sen. John McCain to Obama, 49 percent to 36 percent.

“While the economic slowdown is serving as an engine of sorts for the Obama campaign nationally, Arkansas voters – even Democrats – do not conform to this pattern,” said Janine Parry, the poll’s director and a professor of political science at the University of Arkansas.

In the recent past, election results in Arkansas have paralleled voting in most Southern states, as well as in swing Midwestern states with many rural white voters. This year, the poll collected twice as many responses as usual, allowing researchers to examine results for each of the state’s four congressional districts and yielding regionally based information particularly useful in predicting swing state voter behavior.

Most Important Problem

In response to a closed-ended question – “Which of the following do you think is the most important problem or issue facing people in Arkansas today?” – an unprecedented majority of Arkansans named the economy. Economic issues topped last year’s open-ended question as well with 29 percent of respondents selecting it over education and healthcare.

“While the economy has been named the most serious issue in most previous Arkansas Polls, this year, 56 percent of respondents named it the most important problem facing Arkansas,” Parry said. “In our 10 years of polling, no issue has ever been ranked that high. Previously, the highest percentage we had found was in 2005 when 31 percent viewed the economy as the main issue.”

The Election

The economy is a pressing issue for both McCain and Obama supporters. Fifty-four percent of respondents favoring McCain and 61 percent of Obama supporters selected the economy from among six issues presented. A similar modest gap was evident on the second most pressing issue: health care. Eighteen percent of Obama supporters placed health care as their first priority as compared with 11 percent of McCain’s supporters. Roughly one in 10 respondents of either camp cited education.

“While the magnitude of people’s economic concerns is unusual, there’s actually a lot of consistency here,” Parry said. “Not only do the bread and butter trio of the economy, health care, and education remain foremost in people’s minds as in years’ past, but they hold true – in the same order – for Arkansas Republicans and Democrats.”

When voter preferences for president are narrowed to registered voters only, support for McCain rises to 51 percent while remaining at 36 percent for Obama. By congressional district, support for Obama varies between 35 and 38 percent. The 4th Congressional District in southern Arkansas shows the strongest support for McCain at 53 percent, while 46 percent of voters support McCain in the 1st Congressional District in northeast Arkansas.

Among those who identify themselves as Republicans, 90 percent support McCain. Obama is supported by 67 percent of Democrats, with 16 percent of Democrats not reporting whom they plan to support. In comparison, exit polls in the 2004 presidential election showed that 82 percent of Democrats supported John Kerry. Independents, who are nearly a third of the Arkansas electorate, are breaking for McCain, 53 to 30 percent.

“The comparatively low enthusiasm among Arkansas Democrats for Obama’s candidacy is probably a consequence of several factors,” said Pearl Ford, Parry’s colleague in political science and a collaborator on this year’s poll. “The fact that Clinton earned her strongest support here has to play a significant role. Many rural white voters in particular seem to be having a hard time connecting with Obama. That’s certainly working to McCain’s advantage.”

Another factor, Ford noted, was the late arrival of the Obama campaign in Arkansas.

“The first campaign office opened only last month, and Obama has never visited the state. As a result there was limited opportunity for voters to become familiar with Obama or for the campaign to develop a strong ground organization, which has been critical in swing states and red states that we may see turn blue,” Ford said.

Hillary Clinton had a strong base of support in Arkansas, with 54 percent reporting they would have voted for her for president. Of those voters, 57 percent are backing Obama, with 26 percent going for McCain. That leaves 17 percent who are still undecided or declined to specify.

This year the poll included a series of questions about race relations as part of a research project conducted by Ford. She asked several standard polling questions related to opinions about opportunities and hurdles for Black people in the United States.

“The results will be used to further understand voter attitudes toward Obama, the first African American candidate to run as the nominee of a major party, and to gauge the potential for African American politicians to run successful campaigns for local and state offices in the future,” Ford said.

Ratings for the state’s national senators and representatives remained positive and stable, while Gov. Beebe’s approval rating climbed to 74 percent, a record in 10 years of statewide polling. In line with national ratings, President Bush’s approval rating was 27 percent, “which is noteworthy for a state that cast its electoral votes for Bush in both 2000 and 2004,” Parry said.

Issues

When asked whether they favored or opposed Arkansas Proposed Initiative Act 1, which would prevent anyone who cohabitates outside a valid marriage from adopting or fostering a child, 55 percent opposed the initiative. Some proponents have advocated for Act 1 to prevent adoption and foster parenting by gays and lesbians, and the 2007 Arkansas Poll had revealed that 53 percent of Arkansans supported prohibiting adoption and fostering by gays and lesbians. Even so, when it comes to voting for Act 1, Arkansans appear to be rejecting a blanket prohibition.

“Personal feelings about an issue can be different from policy preferences,” Parry said. “After looking at this issue for several years, it seems to me that many Arkansans – both liberals and conservatives – are uncomfortable dictating the family arrangements of others, whether they agree with them or not.”

Parry said that the results of previous Arkansas polls suggested that while Arkansans oppose casino gambling, a lottery – especially one connected to funding for education – would fare well. Bearing this out, 65 percent of those polled favored the proposed lottery amendment.

When it comes to the hot button issue of gun control laws, a greater percentage of Arkansans supported no change in the laws – 54 percent in 2008, up from 47 percent last year. Those who believe gun control laws should be stricter dropped to 29 percent from 37 percent in 2007. There was little change in the numbers who thought laws should be less strict.

Methods

While the Arkansas Poll usually collects a statewide sample of about 750 people, this year’s sample size is more than twice as large. Between Oct. 1 and Oct. 21, the university’s Survey Research Center completed 1,628 telephone surveys among a random sample of adult Arkansans.

On most questions, the survey's margin of error statewide is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, meaning that the researchers are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 2.5 percentage points in either direction of the result the sample produced. At the congressional district level, and for a handful of questions asked of only a portion of the statewide sample, the margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes what most polling organizations do not, a comparison of survey respondents' key demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is available on the poll Web site. A full summary report of the 2008 poll results and data from past Arkansas Polls are available at http://new-www3.uark.edu/ARKPoll/.

The 2008 Arkansas Poll is sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences. The poll was designed and analyzed by political scientists Janine Parry and Bill Schreckhise. Results of previous polls from the years 1999 through 2007 can be accessed online at http://www3.uark.edu/arkpoll/.

A Web cast of the news conference will be posted on http://researchfrontiers.uark.edu/13816.php on Friday, Oct. 24.

Comments

something to talk about i guess, but with a 4.9% MoE it could be a 3 point race (emphasis on 'could be')

and the 4th CD supports JM more than NWA ? wtf ? (oh, seems AA's were under-polled)

oh well, suits me fine, as the poll will allow the ADG to trumpet and continue their delusional denial, hopes, and prayers (which will make the reckoning much sweeter)

Posted by: muleboy303 | October 23, 2008 10:34 AM

Those are definitely surprising numbers for the Presidential match up; It said the poll was conducted between October 1st and October 21st. & I love both Dr. Parry and Shreckhise BUT of all the years to under-represent Black voters this would not be the ideal year...JUST in the name of accuracy I mean.

Rasmussen showed McCain with a 29 point advantage in March among a poll of 500 Likely Voters AND on September 22nd the race had tightened to 9 points. 51% to 42% for McCain among 500 Likely Voters. A 20 POINT GAIN for OBAMA.

If the early vote numbers hold and the unprecedented number of African American early voting continues ANYONE would have to believe this race is well within the 9 point margin.

Max, I was pretty sure early last week you predicted a tightening race in Arkansas on the Presidential level and now you say "just as I predicted" McCain's lead holds steady. So what is the prediction for the final outcome?

I say it will be within 5 points. I am hoping all those Yellow Dog Democrats (I guess Yellow Dogs don't include black men) who just can't vote for Obama will at least abstain from voting in the Presidential race at all...lifelong Democrats voting for Palin just doesn't make much sense.

If the McCain Palin ticket keeps imploding we might have a chance yet.

AND I have to say, GOD BLESS DAVID PRYOR for injecting some long needed energy and enthusiasm into the Presidential race in Arkansas. I think its fantastic to hear of rallies with President Clinton and Senator Bumpers in NLR, Pine Bluff and Jonesboro. Thank goodness someone in our state is embracing the historic magnitude of this race and is willing to help the person who will (God willing) be our next President. Barack Obama

Posted by: Orval Eugene | October 23, 2008 10:37 AM

First, I'm surprised that McCain is only 13 points ahead -- I would think that more Arkansans would look scathingly on palling around with terrorists.

I do have to agree with the Democrat Orval here. God bless David Pryor, not for his support of Barry, but for his support of President Bush. He represents Arkansas well -- as shown by these poll results.

Posted by: Extremists for McCain | October 23, 2008 10:48 AM

Extremists for Moron,

I think you are confusing DAVID Pryor with Mark Pryor...

Looking at the summary breakout, its incredible the free fall of George W.

87% approval in Arkansas in 2001
27% approval in Arkansas in 2008.

That is incredible

Posted by: Orval Eugene | October 23, 2008 10:57 AM

Undersampling of African Americans is surely a mistake in this election. Also, if McCain is relying heavily on all those Democrats to actually show up and vote for a Republican, well, I'd say he's got an enthusiasum issue. It's one thing to respond to a pollster, but it's another thing to get off your duff and actually go vote.

Another point, if McCain is that far ahead, what will motivate Republicans to show up and vote? Are any of the congressional races seriously contested?

Max predicted that this poll would not favor Obama, but I'm sure he has Obama winning Arkansas by 3-5 points, and if he isn't predicting that, I know he's hoping and wishing for it with all his might.

Posted by: GUMM | October 23, 2008 10:59 AM

where are the numbers for Barr ?

if the Arkansas "quirk" continues as i think it will (ala 1968's three-way party splitting) abetted by this year's most unusual all four reps and one senator having no major party opposition, AR's 6 electoral votes could well wind up in Obama's column as the vote for Barr will be greater than the difference between Obama's vote total and McCain's.

though the ADG's love affair with Palin may counteract/offset the bible-humpers disgust and distrust of McCain.

time will tell

Posted by: muleboy303 | October 23, 2008 11:01 AM

Extremists,

I'm surprised you can write because the "palling arouind with terrorists" fiction has been disproven from coast to coast. I'm wondering if you can read.

I'm also wondering what you see in John McCain that's positive. Could you tell me?

Posted by: Silver Bells | October 23, 2008 11:17 AM

I wonder how many Arkansans are like my family and refuse to pick up the phone if it is a number we don't already know by heart. As long as I'm paying the phone bill I will use it to bother other people, not bother myself. No telling how many pollsters we've missed with our family phone rule. But on the other hand, polls are like chiropractors.....I'm not sure they do anyone any good.

I know one thing....Fort Republican has far more Obama signs in the yards than McCain-Palin.....and this is IS Fort Republican over here. I can't imagine any Republican with a functioning brain being happy with how badly McCain-Palin have FK'ed up this campaign. The only thing that hasn't dropped on them yet are nude pictures of them with children....but there's always next week!

Clearly Palin is dumber than any TV weathergirl. Bless her frozen heart.....no one currently known to the America public can open their mouths and be wrong more often. Now when she and old man McCain are talking together in an interview, you can see McCain wince at every word that comes from her mouth. It's painful to watch. She's like a drunk uncle at a church funeral.

One of my dear friends who is 79 and recovering from prostate cancer just sent me a forward titled Obama Promises to Change the USA.....to the USSR. So the abuse of our elderly continues and far too many are falling for it. We agreed a couple of years ago not to discuss politics, so I don't know if it is his life long Republicanism that's got him or that Barack is a black man. But I hate to see this member of AARP and Mensa falling for such pure bullshit. Sure makes him look anything but smart.

Posted by: Deathbyinches | October 23, 2008 11:25 AM

Only 30% knew a U. S. Senator's term of office was 6 years. And 20% think Obama is a Muslim. Guess it's just confirmation about Arkansas' lack of educated adults.

Posted by: PVNasby | October 23, 2008 11:26 AM

It would be much more effective if you asked your friends, neighbors and relatives what they see in John McCain. You're simply looking to fight with me, whereas you might listen to them.

You should thank God you are living in a pro-America state, although I confess I wish the race were a little tighter so that we might get a visit from Sarah Palin.

She's HOT!!

Posted by: Extremists for McCain | October 23, 2008 11:26 AM

Let me point out one more salient fact on this research:

Liberals blog, Conservatives vote.

That is all. Continue violently agreeing with yourselves.

Posted by: Extremists for McCain | October 23, 2008 11:32 AM

I know what I have seen that is positive about John McCain, Extremists. I'm wanting to hear something positive from you. Other than that Sarah Palin is hot.

So. I'm curious. I don't want a fight. I want to know what you feel his strengths are.

I won't reply or rebuttal. See, I would like to see you post something positive about your Presidential candidate. It worries me horribly that the people I see posting from all over who are voting for John McCain never say one word about his strengths, but can only slur Barack Obama.

It's a trend that is carried forth 100% from pro-McCain posters on this blog, too.

I wasn't baiting you. Believe me. I was hoping youi had something good to say about your candidate. Because if John McCain is elected by people who can only feel "against" something and not true support "of" something, I am afraid for this country.

Posted by: Silver Bells | October 23, 2008 11:36 AM

DBI owes an apology to every weathergirl in the country.

Posted by: Polecat | October 23, 2008 11:45 AM

Thank you Janine!

>A 20 POINT GAIN for OBAMA.<<

Yes, could have been higher had he chosen to make an appearance. Someone should mention to DPA workers that Jefferson County vote is just enough to cancel Benton County votes. We saw it with Asa!

Orval, don't blow your 'kewl' over Extremist for McCain. Lotta legs gettin pulled.

Just about the right disconnect for low-college degree Arkies. Economy is THE issue but
support a 90% BushVoter who,
in this day of nationalized, socialized bidness modeling,
can only say,
Create Jobs
Create Wealth,

How much wealth has Mr Wealth Creation created?
Think....Cindy's father, 3 generations before McSame.

and Mrs Wealth Creation?
A certified Socialist who allowed the people to
feed directly on Big Oil.

Disconnect is a kind term.

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 11:52 AM

Who mentioned Barr?
Take a close look at him. Would you let your child go into a public restroom if you thought he was inside? The creep's a lurker.

Posted by: Louie | October 23, 2008 12:01 PM

Sent "Yellow Dog Pryor" an email asking why he seems to disappear when rallies are held for Barack Obama. I also commented I was leaning "Green". Here is his response: Pursuant to statutory and ethical rules, I am prohibited from responding to campaign issues, such as this one, through my Senate office. Please know that I am working hard in Washington to represent the interests of all Arkansans

What the hell does that mean???

Needless to say I voted "Green" for US Senator yesterday!!

Posted by: dedeann | October 23, 2008 12:05 PM

Posted by: dedeann | October 23, 2008 12:08 PM

That is all. Continue violently agreeing with yourself.

THANKS EX FOR MCCAIN. I THINK SILVERBALLS HAS A THING FOR YOU.
JUST KEEPS ASKING WHY WE ARE VOTING FOR MCCAIN.

HE IS EXPERIENCED. TESTED BEYOND ANYTHING ANYONE HAS BEEN. NOT FOR PORK. HAS RESPECT AROUND THE WORLD. I TRUST HIM... I HAVE SEEN HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE AND HIS MEDICAL RECORDS AND ANYTHING ELSE WE WANTED TO SEE. BARRY HUSSEIN OBAAAAAMA HASNT RELEASED DIDDLY. AFRAID TO. UP TO HIS NECK IN ACORN FRAUD.. AND WE ARE PAYING THEM 71 MIL TO SCREW US. HE IS PAYING THEM 832 K TO SCREW US. THE MAN HAS NOT AN HONEST ANSWER IN HIS REPERTOIRE. PROMISED TO ACCEPT ONLY PUBLIC CAMPAIGN FUNDS... RENIGGED ON THAT. MORE TO GAIN FROM THE MIDDLE EAST COFFERS. VIA "THE LITTLE PEOPLE" ANYONE WHO TELLS ME HE WAS 8 WHEN AYERS DID HIS THING.. IS FULL OF IT.. OBAMA WAS IN HIS 40'S AND ACCEPTING "GUIDANCE AND FUND RAISING AND MENTORING BIG TIME" FROM AYERS AND WE ALL KNOW IT. THIS AND REZKO REEKS TO HIGH HEAVEN.. DO YOU ALL HAVE YOUR NOSES TWEAKED. CANT SMELL.. WHATS THE DEAL. FROM THE LOOKS OF ALL YOUR POSTINGS ABOUT THIS SMOOTHE MAD MAN, YOU ARE THE POT CALLING THE KETTLE BLACK... "AS IN PROOF ALL ARKIES ARE UNEDUCATED" YOU ARE FULL OF IT. DAM RIGHT WE VOTE, AND WE WILL.
THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR FORTITUDE AND STICKTOITTIVENESS. MCCAIN HAS ALL OF THOSE. AND PALIN'S NO SLACKER IN THOSE DEPTS EITHER.. SHE HAS PUT UP WITH THE BIGGEST PILE OF SHISTE SLUNG IN YEARS. JUST BECAUSE OF WHAT SHE BELEIVES. I THINK SHE CAN HANDLE ANYTHING. THIS PROVES IT.
AND. THEY ARE BOTH PROLIFE. THAT ...SILVER BALLS IS WHY I AM VOTING FOR MCCAIN /PALIN, NOT THAT ITS ANY OF YOUR DAM BUSINESS WHO ANYBODY VOTES FOR. YOU LIBS HEADS ARE SO FAR UP YOUR SCHNOZE YOU ARE HAVING TO USE PUFFS TO GET THRU THE DAY.. BARK ALL YOU WANT.
SOME OF US KNOW WHAT IS RIGHT AND WRONG AND ARENT AFRAID TO BACK IT UP AND STICK TO IT.
AND THEN.... SOME OF YOU JUST KINDA RATIONALIZE THE ISSUE, AND SAY...ITS OK.. TIMES HAVE CHANGED. GOT NEWS FOR YOU BUDDIES.. MORALS NEVER DO. ONLY MAN'S DECISION TO DO IT RIGHT OR DO IT WRONG.
NOW.. SILVER BELLS AND DUBI AND THE MINIONS... I DONT CARE WHY YOURE VOTING FOR THE MUSLIM. THATS YOUR PROBLEM.. AND IT WILL BE.

Posted by: LargeAss | October 23, 2008 12:12 PM

It means just what it says ddean. To his credit some senators honor the law and some don't.

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 12:26 PM

I think you already have the answer. Your friends and neighbors aren't voting FOR McCain; they're voting AGAINST Obama. This election has turned from a referendum on Republican policies to an up-or-down vote on Obama. McCain has superb qualifications but the biggest is that he's not Obama.

That's one reason I am comfortable despite the polls. It's easy to answer the phone and support Obama. But when election day comes around, half the people on (for example) Daily Kos won't be voting. They'll be blogging among themselves, comfortable and secure in their win.

On the other hand, 100% of those folks at FreeRepublic.com will be doing whatever they need to do to get to the polls and vote against Barry.

I mean, look at Arkansas. It's a total waste of time to vote for Obama. Your vote is immaterial. How motivated will you be? Not nearly as motivated as those people who don't like The Messiah. Your best bet is to roll a fat one, pop open a Sam Adams, kick back and eye the pistol on the table as state after state after state defies the research and falls to McCain.

Posted by: Extremists for McCain | October 23, 2008 12:30 PM

LargeA gave me some solid reasons why he/she is voting McCain. None from Extremists. Thanks. LargeA. That's all I was wanting, even if I had to get it laced with hate talk and in LargeA's case huge amounts of fiction. However, thanks, LargeA. I like that you say you trust McCain.

Posted by: Silver Bells | October 23, 2008 12:36 PM

Do you like me better when I use this handle?

Posted by: Moderates Against Obama | October 23, 2008 12:42 PM

A few observations based on the poll:

-- If the numbers hold up, Arkansas will break a streak that lasted from 1972 to 2004 of going with the winner in each presidential election. The last time Arkansas went with a losing candidate was 40 years ago when Wallace carried the state. Not a good precedent to repeat.

-- I do think the numbers are all the way on McCain's side in Arkansas. With a 13-point lead, if there is a large black voter turnout, if there is a large turnout of first-time voters, if there is a large turnout of uncalled voters who have cell phones or don't answer their land line phones, if the Arkansas Poll has too many respondents from three weeks ago who don't account for a late surge -- then maybe all that will knock McCain down to a 6- or 7-point margin.

-- To find a reason for the above, go to the Arkansas Poll page at http://new-www3.uark.edu/ARKPoll/ and hit the link for the Summary Poll document. There you will find a few questions about voters' opinions on general race issues. A discouraging batch of answers there.

-- Finally, about the Clinton-Bumpers-Beebe-Pryor-Pryor rallies for Obama set for Jonesboro, NLR and Pine Bluff. A good idea, but why are they overlooking Northwest Arkansas? Remember the mantra from earlier elections that a Demo vote in NW Ark. counts just as much as a Demo vote in east Ark. Yeah, I know the GOP will win the region every time, but if you cut down the margin of victory in the northwest then it's not necessary to run up impossibly lopsided margins in the south and east. So why not a Fayetteville area rally this weekend? If no one noticed, there is a football game in Fayetteville on Saturday night that may attract a few thousand people from all over the state. If there were a Demo rally in the vicinity, somebody might actually drop by.

Posted by: j. jack flash | October 23, 2008 12:42 PM

extremists for mccain = roland72135, folks.

Roland = dem.

Sorry to disillusion ya, LargeAss.

Posted by: JD | October 23, 2008 12:45 PM

Old LargeAss never fails to give us a big laugh. As ignorant as the day is long, as dishonest as they come. He deflects fact bullets better than Superman. I think what drives him is one issue and one issue only.....abortion. He'd come out for Hitler at this late date if someone could provide him with proof that Hitler was anti-abortion.....no matter how many millions of Jews he slaughtered....Hitler saving one fetus would make old Large start goose-stepping. It's pitiful to be so simpleminded.

But that's what McCain-Palin are counting on....the large LargeAss vote and they're out there in droves. Hopefully not more droves than we can out vote on November 4th. Which makes me wonder why these same simple folks aren't big admirers of Osama Bin Can't-be-Found? No one represents stick-to-it-tive-ness like Osama.

Man that towelhead is like a pit bull dog when he decides he hates America. Only it seems Osama is better at collecting facts and using them than McCain or the LargeAss voters. Really there ain't much difference in extremists if you scratch em below the skin. It's a short trip from dreaming of bombing an abortion clinic and dreaming of bombing NY City and DC.

Please Allah, Buddha, God and Lee Majors......protect President Obama from these awful one note extremists.....pretty please.

Posted by: Deathbyinches | October 23, 2008 01:05 PM

According to various reports both the KKK and AL KKKayduh endorsed McCain Palin this week.

Posted by: Eureka Springs, AR | October 23, 2008 01:35 PM

HE IS EXPERIENCED. TESTED BEYOND ANYTHING ANYONE HAS BEEN.<<
LargeAssHole

And he flunked all the tests. He flunked the torture test and made 32 anti-American recordings.
Five other captured and tortured American captains lived thru identical experiences and never capitulated. McCain FLUNKED.

He flunked "till death do us part" test, divorced his injured wife and married up into BEER.

He flunked the ETHICS test was filmed and recorded getting booty from Charles Keating who
stole more American's savings than any other person on the face of the Earth.

And so much for another ...........FACT-FREE Post from Large Ass Hole. .........................

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 01:58 PM

McCain= McPussy.

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 02:06 PM

McCain voted to ignore and disregard any further evidence of U.S. GIs held in N.Viet Nam prisons.

McCoward!

Why?

Because the North Vietnamese have a statue erected to him up in Hanoi.

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 02:13 PM

Dearest Extremist for McCain [and your ilk]:
Here's a little red state meat for you fella. Don't choke on it.

Dear Red States...
We've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us. In case you aren't aware, that includes Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota , Wisconsin , Michigan , Illinois and all the Northeast. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, and especially to the people of the new country of New California. We are the folks you and Sarah the Shopper call "un-American."

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states [can you make the synapse on this one extremist boy - or do some of us blue staters have to spell it out to you???] We get stem cell research and the best beaches. We get the Statue of Liberty. You get Dollywood. We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom. We get Harvard. You get Ole' Miss. We get 85 percent of America 's venture capital and entrepreneurs. You get Alabama. We get two-thirds of the tax revenue, you get to make the red states pay their fair share [you've been on blue state welfare for a century - go it alone now welfare queens!] Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition's, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms [toten around unwanted children by the way because the males in red states want to keep their women barefoot and pregnant!]

Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we're going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They have kids they're apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose and they don't care if you don't show pictures of their children's caskets coming home. We do wish you success in Iraq, and hope that the WMDs turn up, but we're not willing to spend our resources in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States in hand, we will have firm control of 80 percent of the country's fresh water, more than 90 percent of the pineapple and lettuce, 92 percent of the nation's fresh fruit, 95 percent of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90 percent of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the U.S. low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy [for the uneducated like yourself that includes Harvard, Yale, Brown, Princeton, Columbia, Dartmouth] and Seven Sister schools, plus Berkely, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.

With the Red States, on the other hand, you will have to cope with 88 percent of all obese Americans (and their projected health care costs), 92 percent of all U.S. mosquitoes, nearly 100 percent of the tornadoes, 90 percent of the hurricanes, 99 percent of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100 percent of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia. We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.

Additionally, 38 percent of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62 percent believe life is sacred unless we're discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44 percent say that evolution is only a theory, 53 percent that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61 percent of you crazy b ** ***ds believe you are people with higher morals than we lefties. Actually, you are just the folks with lower IQ's than the rest of the world.

By the way, we're taking the good pot, too. You can have that dirt weed they grow in Mexico.

Peace out,
The Blue States

Posted by: Janus | October 23, 2008 02:13 PM

The 16% figure of blacks is from the 2000 census, and is of the total population, including those <18 years. In that census, the voting age population of blacks made up 14% of the total voting age population. Also, the black population has been declining, and we are nearly 9 years away from those figures.

So don't be so definitive sounding about the unrepresentation of blacks. At least, try not to confuse aggregate census figures with voting age figures.

Posted by: Polecat | October 23, 2008 02:43 PM

This poll doesn't weed out registered voters, much less likely voters. It's great to talk about, but this is hardly a scientific poll that allows anyone to draw conclusions about the election. No one need to get too excited one way or the other based on these numbers.

Posted by: rockstar | October 23, 2008 03:34 PM

Interesting that Extremist and Large both blogged in to tell us that

Liberals blog.

In the case of Extremist, took multiple blog entries to make his point.

Reminds me a bit of something that happened in my first-grade class at Fair Park school in Little Rock. We had just finished saying our morning prayer. A little girl in the class raised her hand to announce to Ms. Mary Feild, the teacher, that another little girl had her eyes open during the prayer.

Ms. Feild paid no attention at all to the errant open-eyed prayer, but pounced on the girl who reported her classmate for having her eyes opened ....

Apparently blogging is a vice of more than liberals, Large and Extremist. Thanks for blogging in to let us know about it, though.

Posted by: MuddlingThrough | October 23, 2008 04:00 PM

Wonderful story Muddling.

Kinda like a teen up here who kept swearing he smelled pot coming from a neighbor's
house.

His dad asked when and how he learned about the smell of pot.

Posted by: eLwood | October 23, 2008 06:16 PM

Interesting thread. Just a comment: Anybody who uses the term "renigged" and calls Obama a Muslim in the same post tells me all I need to know about the poster.
Obama reflects my Christian values. One spouse, one house, for starters. Didn't screw around on his wife, either.
That's how I roll.
Kiz

Posted by: kizzy | October 23, 2008 06:48 PM

I think there is another dialectic undlerlying the obvious ones of Republican vs Democrat and Liberal vs Conservative in this election. It is between old conventional wisdom about what wins elections and a new paradign that seems to be emerging.

The old attacks aren't working. The black candidate is winning. The southern strategy seems to be finally, mercifully, coming to the end of its effective life. We can discuss the validity of the cries during the primaries of how we were to fear these things later. Now, I think it is worth pointing out that we are looking at a new set of circumstances, with new players, new demographics. If anyone's "predictions" are going to be valid and valuable in the future, I believe they will need to encompass some of what we should be learning from this election. Regardless of the outcome, change has come.

Posted by: GUMM | October 23, 2008 09:23 PM

GUMM, you are a breath of fesh air. I am in daily contact with the next generation and most of them are not racist and can't beleve race is even a factor.
The times, they are a'changing......

Posted by: kizzy | October 23, 2008 09:52 PM

What difference does it make who Arkansas supports? Barry is a shoo-in. Most of the polls show him defeating McCain. You have nothing to worry about. Barry must be confident. He is laying down $2 million to celebrate his victory in Chicago. If he is confident then you should be too. Relax!

Posted by: strangelove | October 23, 2008 09:59 PM

I hear that those who will attend the celebration in Chicago when barry bags the election will be identified with a 'b' carved on their cheek. Enjoy!

Posted by: strangelove | October 23, 2008 10:01 PM

THANKS STRANGE.. AND THEY SAY THE CONSEVATIVES ARE MEAN SPIRITED.. AT LEAST WE DONT CARVE BEFORE THANKSGIVING. WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP.. THANK GOD FOR STRANGELOVE AND FOR
THE POSTS BY THE MINIONS OF BHO.. SO MUCH REFLECTION OF WEED, POT. AND THE GOOD STUFF. WE KNOW WHAT DECISIONS THEY MADE WHILE TAKIN ANOTHER TOKE. ONE STEP OVER THE LINE AND IN CAME OBABBA NO TYPO, JUST THE FACTS. STILL STAND BY MY POSTS.. HE HAS YET TO REVEAL ANYTHING ABOUT HIS MEDICAL HISTORY, BIRTH CERTIFICATE.. THE ONE NOT FINE TUNED TO REFLECT WHAT HE WANTS AND NEEDS IT TO BE. SOMEONE EVEN SUGGESTED A QUICK TRIP TO HAWAII TO GET THE DEAL DONE.. ONCE AGAIN HIS GRANMOTHER CAME THRU FOR HIM.IF INDEED IT IS AS HE SAYS.. A LIAR IS NOT TO BE BELIEVED, EVEN THO HE TELL THE TRUTH.. AND WE JUST CANT DEPEND ON HIM DOING THAT. HAVENT SEEN PROOF OF THE TRUTH YET, JUST A HUGE MONEY MAKIN MACHINE, NO WONDER JESSIE IS AFTER HIS JEWELS.. HE MAKES JESSIE LOOK LIKE A BABY MONEY MAKER. STILL WAITIN FOR SOMEONE TO ANNOUNCE THAT HE WILL GIVE SOME TO POOR PEOPLE.. HE WONT DO IT.. UNLESS IT IS FOR AYERS FINE SCHOOL OF TERRORISM.. HE JUST DIDNT GET IT RIGHT THE FIRST TIME HE SAID.. AND THAT WAS 2001.. NOW WAS BARRY 8 YRS OLD THEN.. WHAT DONT YOU ALL GET WITH THIS LYING PIECE OF DESERT.

Posted by: LargeAss | October 23, 2008 10:52 PM

Having a large ass is the direct result of being so full of shit.

Posted by: GUMM | October 23, 2008 11:42 PM

Gumm, let me add to your ass-essment of of Large Ass:
There is an inverse relationship here: having a Large Ass means you have a Small Brain.

I note that Large Ass and Strangelove and Extreme for McCain have not responded to my earlier Red State/Blue State assessment. Maybe they are content to wear what they are without critical analysis. Must be nice to be fat, dumb and happy in the midst of such turmoil and decline.

Posted by: Janus | October 24, 2008 09:49 AM

Looks like Roland jumped ship. Sorry to spoil the gag.

HINT: if you want to see a person's user name, click on their profile link, and look at the URL in your browser's address bar.

E.g., Mine is WJUDSTL. Extremists for McCain's is Roland72135.

Posted by: JD | October 24, 2008 06:47 PM

Arkansas Blog

Poll watching UPDATE

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