Who will vote?
Here's an analysis of the latest NYT poll numbers, favorable to Obama, that gets down to the question I raised yesterday about the early vote.
Will there be an influx of first-time voters as as result of either the big registration drives or enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy? If there is, the outlook is good. If not ...
Recent polls in swing states North Carolina and Missouri show rural voters favoring McCain in big numbers, enough to offset urban votes and put McCain neck-and-neck with Obama in those states. (Of course, North Carolina was supposed to be a GOP runaway at one time.) But new voters and a better-than-expected minority turnout will affect these numbers.



Comments
I've always been skeptical of polling in recent years. As long as they're calling land lines, they're missing the under 40 demographic. Those people tend to only use cell phones or if they have a land line, they don't answer if they don't recognize the number.
Younger people trend heavily towards Obama and there's a lot of enthusiasm about him with that group. As a result, my gut tells me that the polls are under representing the Obama vote by maybe a full point or two.
Posted by: NWASooner
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October 31, 2008 07:07 AM
Good read on race, gender and the Presidency Published on Capitol Hill Blue (http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont) 10/30/2008 - 7:42 am
It's been debated for more than a century. But when this historical presidential campaign comes to a close next week, will we know the answer to the following question with any degree of certainty: which more fervently permeates the fabric of American society, racism or sexism?
I think we will and I think the answer will be sexism. The 2008 campaign has demonstrated it is more politically correct to be sexist than racist. American culture tolerates sexism to a degree it would never tolerate racism.
Click below to continue reading.....
A couple thoughts!
!) When a person puts his/her political/religious prejudices over what's best for country is that person still patriotic -- I don't think so!
2) If a person votes against another because of his/her skin pigment/sex orientation is that person still a patriot -- don't think so!!!
Do we still have Arkansas brethren/sisters (even democrats) that think/feel this way -- unfortunately yes! Why else would they vote for McCain/Palin knowing all they could hope for is another perilous destructive and reversed robin hooding policies of McBush.
Posted by: BWC
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October 31, 2008 07:35 AM
I did not note the name of a Republican analyst who made a good case, from polling history, that an incumbent running against a challenger or a Black candidate running against a Caucasian candidate will get only about one out of five voters who claim to be "undecided" in pre-election polls. His conclusion: This race is much closer than the polls show, and, if Obama does not have more than 50 percent in any given poll, he may be in trouble.
Posted by: Snapback
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October 31, 2008 07:47 AM
Race Gender and the Presidency -- link
Posted by: BWC
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October 31, 2008 07:57 AM
I think I will go and early vote today. Since everyone is so confident that Obama will get a landslide in this race, I am thinking of voting for him. However, I am still struggling on two issues. If anyone can give me a logical answer to these two questions I will vote for Obama:
1) How do you give a Federal tax break to 95% of the people when 40% of the people pay no Federal taxes?
2) In regards to his tax breaks, Obama said everyone making under $250K will get a tax cut. Then, he said the cut off point for the tax break was $200K, then it was $250K....then Biden said $150K, then Obama back to 200K....and now it is $250K. So, what is it, and why the swinging changes?
I guess only "The Messiah" can give me a tax break...hey wait a minute...tax break, that sounds like Republican talk.
Oh...wait a minutel...
Breaking news....Obama is now saying singles under $175K or married couples under $200K will get the tax break. So, in regards to question No. 2, factor this into your response.
Posted by: Catfish Eater
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October 31, 2008 08:05 AM
I can't wait for this thing to be over...and I NEVER want to see another Baker/White commercial. EVERY day brings fliers through the mail...from both candidates. How much does that job pay???
Can't help it...I'm feeling sympathy for Palin. McSame and his minions should quit trying to dump their problems on her. Sure she's a religious nut/unqualified...but she didn't pick herself and she isn't responsible for Monkeyboy/McSame's failed careers. McSame better be careful...Sarah, after all, has a witchdoctor cursing for her.
Posted by: zelda
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October 31, 2008 08:32 AM
Amen Zelda. I don't have a TV in my house, but they sure do stuff my mailbox with those big glossy ads that essentially say nothing. I'd think if you were going to blanket my box with these things, they could at least be targeted ads. Joe White, or Alex (camp mngr) if you're reading here's what I don't like:
I don't like getting glossy ads from a Democratic candidate that say:
"Joe White is Pro Life." So is Gilbert Baker, Joe. Isn't the point of campaigning to show how you DIFFER on the issues?
"Joe White believes marriage is between a man and a woman." Wow, batting a 1000. Are you sure this isn't a Baker ad?
"Joe White supports student led prayer in public schools" Really? Big step there Joe, since school kids have had those rights, oh, lets see here...since the Constitution was signed? Big bold stances there Joe.
"Joe will work to stop predatory lenders." Sweet. Since the AG has already ordered all of these bloodsuckers to shut down (how'd that go for you Dusty?) this seems to be a moot point.
Message of these ads: JOE WHITE IS A MIRROR IMAGE OF GILBERT BAKER. We know he has a D next to his name, but we swear, he's totally conservative and will vote just like Gilbert.
My message to Joe White: No thanks.
Posted by: calmwriter
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October 31, 2008 09:14 AM
Answers to questions about Obama's tax plan. Click
Posted by: XcowgirlX
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October 31, 2008 09:14 AM
Obviously the pollsters didn't contact my straight ticket voting, Christian, Republican, rural Missouri aunt and uncle who knocked me out of my chair last week by announcing they had both gone down to their court house and voted for Obama! I'm still shaking my head in disbelief! And I'm so proud of them I could bust. There is proof that not all of the Greatest Generation is hypnotized by Fox News.
If what I suspect is true, after the November 4th Obama landslide, we're gonna have to spend a couple of years beating the MSM with a ball bat. I think we're going to find out they've been lying to us for a long time, just so they could get their hands on the trillion that's been spent since this presidential race started 4 long, miserable, years ago. Think about it.....remember when every Republican and every Democrat running in the primaries kept having a chance to break away and win the nomination? The MSM every hyped Mike Gravel and Ron Paul.
Why? Money and lots and lots of it. While that's understandable, the MSM's greed, it's not good for America. If you're wrong at work, you won't be around for very long. So why should we let the MSM off the hook for lying to us about this very important election? So, start sanding down your ball bats and get ready, because we got lots of heads to knock if Obama runs the table next Tuesday after a million tons of newsprint and air waves have lied us into thinking it's a close race. We have to start demanding what our mother's demanded from us 24-7, the truth 100% of the time. It didn't used to be an option.
Posted by: Deathbyinches
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October 31, 2008 10:33 AM
Just in time for you to chew on your bat, DBI :
............................McCAIN IS SURGING ! (John loves that word)
Iowa Electronic Markets (with a 20 yr record of being correct)
On Oct 18 McCain was holding a low ELEVEN CENTS (.118) per share.
TODAY. McCain is showing FIFTEEN CENTS per share.
Obama (10/31) = Eighty four cents (.84) per share.
Trick or treat.
.
Posted by: eLwood
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October 31, 2008 11:16 AM
MO might go McCain..... Unfortunate....
Posted by: JD
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October 31, 2008 11:28 AM