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Ark. voter turnout

I printed some misinformation on Arkanas voter turnout a while back. The secretary of state today says the turnout of Arkansas's appears likely to be about 65 percent of the state's 1.68 million registered voters. Counties are still reporting, but if that holds, that means about 1.09 million votes.

That would be only about 35,000 votes more than 2004, when the turnout was about 63 percent of registered voters. The record turnout was 77 percent in 1980.

The failure of the big new Democratic voter registration to translate into more votes at the polls is becoming increasingly evident.

Everyone has been talking about that NY Times interactive map that showed Arkansas, on a county-by-county basis, voting "redder" than in 2004 than any other state.

This listing on Daily Kos simplifies what that map meant. Kos compares Obama's percentage of the vote in each state with Kerry's percentage of the vote in 2004. This shows a Democratic gain in 46 states. Only four states were "redder" in 2008 and Arkansas led them all:

Arkansas + 11 R

Alaska + 5 R

Louisiana +4 R

Tennessee + 1 R

Depressing as hell. I see why my Repub friend has found sunshinein his gloom. I'd also add this: While plenty of fine Republicans voted against anti-homosexual Act 1, as WLR precinct totals clearly indicate, the Kos analysis helps explain the passage of Act 1 despite public polling that showed most Arkansans (not first screened as registered voters) opposed it. Disproportionate Republican voters in the mix.

Comments

You know, I love this state. But sometimes I'm embarrassed to tell people I'm from here.
This is one of those times.

Arkansas tends to vote more democratic than most southern states, so when a black man named Barack Hussein Obama became the Democratic nominee, Arkansas became redder, matching the norms of states like TN and AL.

The Arkansas variety of "Democrat" is composed oDixiecrats. According to a survey, almost 1/4th of the Arkansas population thinks Obama is Muslim. The underlying traits of the state (e.g., low education levels ---> low information voters) did not work for Obama either. People like chasv among them.

Obama did not campaign here (but, he didn't in a lot of other states that performed better), and Arkansas democratic officials didn't do much to show their support.

Finally, there were those who (perhaps) were bitter that Hillary lost. I don't think it was anyone here, I'm just saying I definitely think it was a factor. Arkansans love their politicians.

I was talking to a friend of mine from AR, and he said his family has a lot of conservative Democrats. His grandfather said he would "never vote for that n____."

Amen on "depressing as hell", living in Pulaski County Precinct 109 it's easy to lose sight of the fact that much of the state is populated with bigots of one stripe or another. Their fundamentalists preachers encourage their anti-gay opinions and likely in-force long time racial biases. Here we are one of the poorest states in the country and our people vote for the party of wealth. "What's Wrong with Kansas?" put an Ar in front of kansas.

Other states voted far redder than Arkansaw... for example, our neighbors over in the former Indian Territory. Obama failed to carry a single county in Oklahoma; at least here he got Pulaski, a chunk of the upper Delta, and surprisingly, the university & Wal-Mart counties up in the NW. In Oklahoma, every county is blood-red.

Several factors worked aainst him here. First of all, he wasn't Hillary. Almost as bad, he's not Causasian. Lastly, he didn't campaign here. Not at all, the folks down at the NLR campaign office were all busy war-dialing folks up in Missouri. We were written off by the national party, and the results show it.

ARK. BLOG: You miss the point. Our trend was worse. Bad as Oklahoma is, it wasn't quite as bad as it was in 2004. Obama got a bigger percentage of the vote than Kerry did. We're moving the wrong direction. You think they worked for Obama in Oklahoma?

USA TODAY had a national county by county map a couple of days ago comparing the Kerry and Obama votes. Arkansas was by far the most solid green state in terms of having generally voted five to seven points higher per county for Kerry.

If I was Blanche I'd be taking a pretty close look at these trends. She might be a more vulnerable seat than she thinks...and depending on how the next two years go....she could be a GOP target.

But with that said Huckabee is the only name brand who would have a shot at her and I just don't think he has any desire to run.

The numbers clearly show that Arkansas soundly rejected Obama. I guess Beebe and company were on to something the way they, for the most part, kept an arms distance from Obama.

I found it amusing that some guy in Little Rock hangs a flag upside down to express his sadness at the election outcome and you all want to debate that. You never said a word when the worst kind of vicious attacks were leveled on George Bush for years.

I think Obama will be fine.....and I brace myself for the unquestioned love you Merlot drinking, Volvo loving, Hillcrest living liberals will express daily.

as best as my old eyes can tell from studying the maps, there appears to be about 36 counties in the US that gave 20+% more votes to the GOP candidate in 2008 than in 2004

and about 18 of them are in Arkansas

utterly f'ing disgusting

Double check your numbers on the "university & Wal-Mart counties up in the NW."

Fortress Benton County shall not be sieged.

Our west Little Rock precinct had a 68.9% turnout including early, absentee and election day voters. Care to guess the percentages both McCain and Obama garnered? McCain got 52.14% and Obama got 46.76% with the other 5 candidates sharing a whopping 36 votes total, or 1.1%.

Re Arkansas going R+11 and Indiana going D+22 compared to 2004 results- I think it would be interesting to have the polling gurus parse those numbers and tell us what they think it all means. Does anyone really believe that Arkansas voters are 11% more Republican than 4 years ago? That's horsetwaddle. Do you believe that Indiana is 22% more Democratic than 4 years ago? If so, I have oceanfront property for sale in downtown Little Rock starting at $1/acre.

I do believe the lack of public support from Democratic state office holders pulled Obama's Arkansas numbers down. After all, if Beebe and Pryor and Lincoln weren't out campaigning for their party's standard bearer, what message does that send the folks who voted for them? Beebe, Pryor and Lincoln are all lily-livered chickens not deserving of my vote in the future.

Other factors that might explain the Arkansas and Indiana votes might include Indiana almost being a bedroom community to Chicago, Obama's base, Indiana being a battleground state this year when it was not in 2004 and Arkansas not being perceived as a battleground state this year where it was somewhat in 2004. And I sure don't discount the bigot vote, based on both color and Muslim rumors, in Arkansas this year.

I suggest we not get too hung up on voting anomalies like Arkansas this year.

I personally heard Governor Beebe speak at two different campaign functions for Democrats during the past few months and he never once mentioned the name Obama. Most every Democratic State Rep. candidate west of West Helena pledged support for John McCain, as did the only Democrat State Senate candidate who mattered. The problem is not "average Arkansans," but rather the Democratic leadership -- whether the name is Ross or Berry, McDaniel or Beebe. True leaders take a stand and educate its citizens, not run from it. If you want to blame anybody for the Arkansas embarrassment, blame them.

The increases were in areas where racism is strong but minority populations are smaller. The racism of the deep south was offset by much higher minority populations.

Lack of education is the key problem.

Let's call a spade a spade. AR Democrats are not true liberal Democrats. They love their guns, and are conservative. And most, not all, but most have a trace of anti-black, gay, etc in their bones. This state, nor much of the south, is ready to embace change. That's just a fact. Anyone who still thinks Obama is a muslim is just, well, I have no words.
People in the country wanted a change. 8 years of Rep. rule in the White House, they weren't happy with. Lost jobs, etc, killed their party. And how folks in AR could want 8 more years of that is beyond me. Look at our jobs losses - Alltel for one and countless other plant closings have had an adverse affect on our state. And yet, they'd rather continue onthe downward path we are on, then vote for a black man. Sad, sad, sad.

And as for Dem. leaders, Beebe should ashamed. Obama came and personally campaigned during his run for Gov, the night of theAR Balck Hall of Fame and Beebe, nor the state party, lift so much a finger to support Obama, until Bill came home. I can assure you, Blanche will be calling on him on 2010. Or maybe not, based on how red our state was. Tracy Steele and Joyce Elliot should be in an uproar, but they aren't saying so publically if they are

What I think isn't what you all want to hear.

Arkansas isn't really a democrat state. Sorry to say it guys, but it ain't. What we are is a state of die-hard traditions, and like all southern states, we were traditionally democrats. Our home-state hero in the White House kept us blue when our Rebel brethren went red. Beebe is, in many other places, what they call a Republican. So are Blanche, Marion, Pryor, and Mike Ross. Kudos to honest Vic Snyder, a democrat in any congressional district in America.

I've posed this question before, but its worth repeating: Would you all rather win with purple candidates and get to call our state blue, or run blues and let my crowd dye Arkansas Razorback red? I think I know which you prefer.

At any rate, don't be shocked when a more textbook 2008 democrat like Obama (read more liberal than Beebe et al) gets his ass whooped. 2000, 2004, and 2008 are where this state is politically. John Brummett digs up a fictional used car dealer from east Arkansas in his columns occasionally for effect. That fella is the face of Arkansas, and he votes democrat by default. Trouble is that today's democrat party (at least the one emanating from DC) gives him a reason to defy his default. People like Mike Beebe do not.

As I type this I'm 26 years old. I got a lot of battles ahead of me, and while we're taking our licks now, the future's looking awful damn bright. Hope y'all had fun while it lasted. Do you guys realize that it was the state with the fourth most democratic legislature in the country that bled that red? 2010 is gonna be a blast for my crowd; you'll keep the Governor's Mansion here, but bleed in lots of other places.

Cheers!

PumpkinCarver, you hit the nail on the head with such force, I'm sure the entire state shook, including the Gov. mansion. Kudos to you, which ever party you claim. The truth has no party, race, color or gender. And have nailed the truth to the wall


>>I suggest we not get too hung up on voting anomalies like Arkansas this year.<<

Sound Policy, I will post this once more. Ark's vote was not an "anomaly."

Clinton has been here before warning about it. Max has previously posted on it and apparently
forgotten about it this election cycle.

"It"
-Obama has supported gun control legislation. He has advocated for more gun control legislation.

Strike One Obama- is that he's more than 20% Negro.
Strike Two Obama - he's Liberal, supports civil unions, supports a woman's right to choose.
Strike Three You're Out Obama- gun control. That's "It"

.

Max,
Is there any way you can archive PumpkinCarver's post, above, then re-post it on the first Wednesday in November, 2010?

I think thats a fantastic idea, Mr. Baber (and not just because of shameless self-promotion).

Few places in America had any GOP net gains when the sun rose Wednesday morning. We sure did here in the Natural State, and for me it was looking more and more like it was morning in America on November 5th. The RPA beat the DPA this year. We'll do it again in 2010. Bet ya a beer, Rick.


>>2010 is gonna be a blast for my crowd; you'll keep the Governor's Mansion here, but bleed in lots of other places.<

has bled
is bleeding
will bleed

We're number 49th in quality of life, education, per capita income, college degrees...Let's Celebrate our bleeding!

We're a top twenty welfare state.

You are some kinda goober. Dip snuff? Or just chew? Both?

Spit.

That's right, Gomer.

Need a New School?

Too Fucking Bad.

Roads Worn Out?

Tough Titties.

Got enough coal-fired mercury releases in your fish?

.

K, Punkin. You're on. But let's make it a six-pack. (Domestic)
You'll have to remind me though. Two years is a long time for somebody like me, who can't remember what he had for lunch today.

As I type, its Coors Light here for me. I'm figuring you for a Bud or Miller man. I'm a domestic drinker too, though I confess to having downed a few Pacifico's at a Main Street Mexican eatery at noon today.

Usually Corona. But Bud will do just fine. I didn't want you to have to spend to much.
(8
I'll buy the Joseph REpub Coors beer, in the event of my unfortunate miscalculation, only that one time.

How'd that apostrophe get in "Pacificos." I blame Reagan and Bush. Or maybe just Pete Coors.

If you study the votes of white Americans across the country, you will find that whites in the south (where racism is highest) voted for McCain. White voters elsewhere (less racist areas) voted in larger numbers for Obama. The areas that saw a Republican increase were areas where racism is high but the number of minority voters are not as high.

Southern racism was countered in areas having a very large number of black voters. Arkansas has less minority voters than in the rest of the south. So in Arkansas, OK, TN, WV, etc, racism's ugly head was visible and not obscured.

PUNMPKIN C.

YOU BUSY NEXT 4 YEARS.... MAKE A RUN FOR SOMETHING.. WE'D LOVE TO HAVE YOUR MIND WORKIN FOR ARK AND THE USA.

BTW .. REST OF YOU.. RACISM IS ALIVE AND WELL AND ITS NOT ALL WHITES DOIN THEIR THING.. TRY THE BLACK VIEW FOR A REAL TWIST IF YOU HAVENT LATELY.

THANKS PUNKIN.C. LOVE YOUR MENTAL PROCESSES. THEY MAKE MORE SENSE THAN MOST.

SHOULDA HAD YOU HANDLIN THE PRESS CONFERENCE TODAY.. MAYBE WE'D HAVE HEARD SOMETHING DEFINITE. HELL HE CANT EVEN MAKE UP HIS MIND ABOUT A DOG. GET THE KIDS A DOG.. DATGUMMIT AND LET THEM BE HAPPY.. AND THEN SHUT UP AND GET TO WORK. TIMES' A WASTIN.

THANKS AGAIN, PUMPKIN CARVER

I attribute a lot of the repug votes to my family and others like them, uneducated and racist. I still love them tho but....

Even anti-gay homophobic Texas has enough Republicans in the legislature with the common sense to know that if we prevent gays from adopting or fostering children, the Department of Child Protective Services will have to ship all of its kids into shelters. (My Arkansan friends: want to read about a bigot? Google "Warren Chisum.") I hope this horrible referendum is both repealed soon, and exposed for the Christianist piece of ignorant prejudice that it is.

I don't think it is stupidity or ignorance.

Oscar Hammerstein or Joshua Logan nailed Arkansan 2008 voting motives when they penned the lyrics to "You Got To Be Carefully Taught." We all were.

I believe from the context and unguarded comments of friends who were McCain supporters that they still resent LBJ and the 1964 Civil Right Act, although Obama's failure to appear even once here to campaign did not help adn Hillary and Bill do not have the impact here they once did.

The GOP/Rovian Political Operatives/Conservatives/Neocons have three decades of successful experience playing to those prejudices and they were successful again this time.

Click . . . Careful indoctrination planned or incidental from environment, spans multiple generations

I see the veracity of your vow to allow the President-Elect a chance ". . . WE WILL ALL GIVE HIM A CHANCE, AND NOT CALL HIM THE DISRESPECTFUL..LOW CLASS MUD YOU SLUNG AT PRES BUSH. HE IS STILL OUR PRESIDENT.. AND SO SHALL OBAMA BE. YOU SOW WHAT YOU REAP.. BE RESPECTFUL... I WILL NOT BE DISRESPECTFUL TO PRESIDENT ELECT OBAMA, EVEN THO I DIDNT VOTE FOR HIM. . . ." lasted SEVENTEEN minutes 5:12 P.M. to 5:29 P.M.

Way to go LargeA**! At least you beat "Cheeto" Joe Scarborough by twelve minutes.

Perhaps Arkies can better understand why Lincoln, Pryor, Ross, et al vote as they do in Congress. It has to do with the ultimate ethic of all politicians......getting re-elected.

When I first saw the map showing the red shift from 2004, by first thought was the effect of Act 1 on fundy turnout. I know that there are thousands who went to the polls to keep "them fags" from adopting kids. They passed their act, but little did they know they kept more straight people from caring for kids than homosexuals. Oh well. I believe that these voters were at least as large of a portion of the red shift as the "I ain't voting for no 'attractive and successful african-american' president" crowd.

So, although I believe that race has a part in the red shift in Arkansas I believe an equal blame? can be cast toward Act 1.

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