Market misery
Another 400-point drop in the Dow. The percentage drop of the S&P 500 was even worse. Bad, is what it is.
I don't mean to be alarmist. And I know that market watching should be a long-term thing. But, if this decline continues, it seems to me that, before too long, the big defined benefit pension plans -- public employees, teachers, cops, etc. -- are going to be in a world of hurt in resources vs. obligations.
Was it a bad idea to shorten the period of time that certain public employees must work before qualifying for a pension? Maybe. And continued public subsidy of retirees' health benefits? This, too, could be a subject for discussion sooner rather than later. I get no pleasure saying this as the spouse of a state employee.



Comments
Hey Max, where's the bread line?
Posted by: cheapdate
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November 12, 2008 03:42 PM
Max, I had no idea that you were uninformed to the ways of the world.
1. Benefits are based on years of service. The five year difference is qualification time means almost nothing.
2. Retired people are going on Medicare. State supplements are only a stop gap and a bridge. Also of little consequence to the system.
3. Assets in these institutions are huge compared to expenditures. They will not be hurt much at all compared to the 401K crowd that can not spread the cost and benefit over a large group.
4. Alarmist is the only sane position to hold for the next year or two. This country is about to be flat broke. Hold on to your hats. Retirement is going to be the least of our worries.
ARK. BLOG: Trust me, GRPIII, when the state allowed 25,000 or so teachers to max out at 29 rather than 30 years of work, the cost was millions and rises with each passing year as the benefit cost increases. Trust me, too, that a public employee who retires at 51 after 30 years of work does not go on Medicare, and can't for 15 years. Trust me that, while assets may currently pay benefits for this year, the actuaries can tell you that the funds become increasingly underfunded over the long haul as assets drop and don't recover. See what's happened to some of the giant pension plans once viewed as rock solid. I hope all this turns around tomorrow. I'm 58, after all. But ....
Posted by: GeorgeRastasPeabodyIII
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November 12, 2008 03:54 PM
Here's one upside. The 4+% that my portfolio lost today didn't represent as many dollars as it would have last summer. (Weak attempt at gallows humor.)
Posted by: Perplexed
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November 12, 2008 04:04 PM
The fed's plan to pay off the $66 trillion dollars in entitlements promised to the baby boomers appears to be to print $66 trillion in new money. In other words, don't worry about your retirement account because it isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Monetary Inflation - allowing government to steal your savings without raising your taxes one cent since 1913!!! Have a nice day!
Posted by: PossumKing
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November 12, 2008 04:17 PM
How in the hell did one president (and a bunch of culpable Dems/Repubs) bankrupt a country in eight years?? (I'm not an economist but I know Clinton left a balanced budget.) I could swallow all this a little easier if PART of the bonanza had made it down this way (middle class). But we don't even have universal healthcare to help get us through the looming disaster.
It's time automobile companies changE or fail...on their own. Toyota thrives 'cause it gives us what we want: Reliable cars that are reasonably fuel efficient. If anyone needs/deserves a bailout...it's middle class Americans. I'm not buying their trickle-down crap anymore!! I WANT UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE!!!
Posted by: zelda
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November 12, 2008 04:31 PM
I believe the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System is by far the state's largest. About a year ago, its portfolio was valued at something like $11.5 billion, but by mid-September of this year had fallen to $10.4 billion. For every 400 point drop in the DOW (as was the case today), the ATRS portfolio loses $120 million on paper. While I'm sure those numbers are somewhat unnerving for retired teachers, I think they can sleep well tonight. The other state's retirement programs (including Judge Ellen's) have also suffered losses, but like ATRS, they're still standing on rock solid ground. Buy me a drink at the Afterthought or Loco Luna tonight and I'll tell you more.
Posted by: durangokid
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November 12, 2008 04:32 PM
Possum has it right.
A few more trillion of new bail out money and hyper inflation is just around the corner. Your $2000 a month Social Security check will be worth a cup of coffee. You will get you full benefit though.
Posted by: GeorgeRastasPeabodyIII
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November 12, 2008 04:47 PM
The fed's plan to pay off the $66 trillion dollars in entitlements promised to the baby boomers<<<
Let's correct the oft repeated lie, created by the Fed.
Social Security is not ENTITLEMENTs. I paid in 44 years like so many others. It''s a friggin debt owed to people who contributed over many years.
The fact is the contributions were stolen. Now they can tax them back into existence by raising the income taxes to about has high as they were when JFK/Johnson began the theft of Soc Security in the 60s. Five Republicans and three demo presidents kept the theft going.
Posted by: eLwood
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November 12, 2008 05:45 PM
I never understood why the state provides retirement to state employees, when those paying for it, the taxpayers, don't have anyone giving them retirement. Most have to survive on Social Security alone yet their taxes go to provide retirement benefits for state employees. It sure doesn't seem fair to me.
Posted by: reallawyer
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November 12, 2008 06:49 PM
Go to the Arkansas Teacher Retirement home page and look up their investment charts and you will get an eye opener about the huge growth it has had in the past 10 years. Also, look at how diversified they are.
Still, they do have some options if they want to tighten the money belt: (1) Eliminate T-Drop which allows retirees to double-dip by going back to work and drawing pension at same time; (2) Eliminate COLA increases for a spell; (3) Raise the payroll deduction for ATRS from 6% to a slightly higher number; (4) Change early retirement requirements; (5) and, apply for more federal and or state aid as a last resort.
State Sen. Shane Broadway issued a report a couple years or so back that noted one particular area of concern for the teacher retirement system. A sizable percentage of teachers are baby boomers and will be retiring over the next few years. If I remember correctly, Arkansas is one of only 5 states in the US that allow T-Dropping which is coming under criticism from the public sector.
Finally, like Social Security, the ratio of the number of workers who contribute toward the fund per each retired teacher will decrease. This will strain the system unless the market recovers and strengthens the assets of the retirement system.
The Baby Boomers are Busted will soon be the headlines if something isn't done to settle the market down and get the banks back in the credit business.
Posted by: Jake da Snake
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November 12, 2008 09:20 PM
Entitlements, debts, Ponzi schemes?? Call them whatever you want, but Social Security and Medicare are governmental programs that the tax base isn't large enough to continue to support even at very high tax rates.
Argentina has been bankrupt for nearly a century because each generation of elderly citizens forces the government to retain moronic policies that perpetuate the bankruptcy. Will the baby boomers do this to America? Based on what I can gather from eLwood, I think so.
Posted by: PossumKing
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November 13, 2008 08:18 AM
I wish there was something to do about the high cost of medical insurance during teacher retirement... Half of it goes for the premium each month... I sure am hoping for some kind of insurance reform with this new administration...
Got my fingers crossed.......
aimee
Posted by: aimee
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November 13, 2008 08:49 PM