Arkansas Blog

"I'm offering a $50 prize to the Blog reader who comes closest to the electoral votes won by the winner of Tuesday's election. You have to pick the winner, too, of course."

Are you going to help us with this Gemini question with two distinct but contradictory parts?

Electoral votes to Barack Hussein Obama 328

Winner of the election Barack Hussein Obama.

Obama- 364
McCain- 174

Obama wins in a landslide.

Obama: 286

McCain: 252

Winner: Barack Obama

I would much rather see Obama win in a landslide even if it means JD gets the $50 prize and, obviously, I don't. But it would be better all the way around.

so, JD & eLwood, what would you do with the money if you won?

What would eLwood do with Max's $500 if he should win?

wait! What a rip...he's only offering $50. I shouldn't read thru these so fast at
my age. Then spend so much time using my online electoral calculator for $50
bucks!

Well let me tell you what happened the last time I won $39 bucks on the Missouri
lottery. I sent a rural friend a subscription to the Ark Times. They only have dial-up
so online reading is a time consuming chore.

If Max moved that prize up to $500 dollars then I would put some serious time into
the chore...and win and be able to send 10 friends subscriptions to Ark Times.
.

Cut my losses from election night spirits...

Sorry I won't be at the party. It's a long drive from Monticello to Little Rock, and I plan on being well inebriated in celebration of Barack's closer-than-I'd-like victory:

Obama/Biden 291, McSame/Mooseslayer 247.

Hope it's not anywhere near that close.

Want to read something depressing? Of COURSE you do.

I accidentally stumbled across today's (or this week's: I don't know) edition of the Ashley County Something or Other (Crossett) whilst visiting a hospital.

The front page was a long article detailing the results of a Mock Election by high school students.

Yes, McCain won.

What's really depressing is the astonishing ignorance, underlying hatred, bigotry and sheer stupidity of most (but not quite all) of the students.

The article's main point was that virtually all the students follow their parents' equally ignorant underlying hatred, bigotry and sheer stupidity.

There may be many virtues to small town living (I can think of NONE), but if you wonder why small-town America has long been dying, this article makes it crystal clear.

Sad and somewhat frightening.

"We all cheer the Hogs' win over Tulsa, I presume."

Why, hell yes, Max! Golly, Razorbacks, who'da thought it? The ballyhooed Gus Malzahn comes to Fayettenam with his high-flying undefeated offense and goes down to one of the poorest teams Arkansas has fielded in years. The Golden Hurricane, averaging 57 points a game, is held to only 3 points in the second half. Meanwhile, the obviously overrated Mitch Mustain of Chickendale sits on the bench as a 4th stringer at USC. And Auburn joins Florida and Arkansas as victims of HDN's Ole Miss Rebels. Amazing? Not really.

Obama 338 if he keeps Florida but loses NC; second pick would be 311 with both FL & NC going over to Little Mac. The former is my pick but I do think Little Mac will pull a surprise in one of the toss up states and cause some worry for a while but Ohio & PA will nail the win for Obama.

It's not an easy race to handicap for sure. Side bet says Dems won't reach magic number of 60 in Senate but will increase their number in the House. Am willing to bet that some looney will do a cross burning somewhere to protest Obama victory. (No, I don't think his name will be Armani Ronnie!)

Somewhere in Ft Smith, an infamous AT blogger will be arrested for running naked thru the streets -- he will be charged with disturbing the war, resisting a rest, and selling naked pictures of the President's mom. The latter charge will be rewritten as public endangerment.

Jake, don't try to change the gender and talk like that about Mag. She'd never do such a thing.

McCain 274
This is based on the Popular Ave. yard sign count from Memphis, TN. last weekend. Four years ago the over whelming number of signs were for Kerry and this year there were none for Obama but all McCain up and down the street. If these are the same people who voted Kerry four years ago then McCain will win. In fact for three days I was there I only saw four cars with Obama stickers.

Here your are Hog Fans a joke for the evening on bluename. I'm going to a belated Spook Party for a dear friend who voted YESTERDAY as an American, his VERY FIRST TIME to VOTE.

He wrote this 553 word letter to introduce others to his decision making. Darrel plays a great jazz piano too and raises championship goats. He has his own business and is a landlord.

"As a Canadian who recently became a citizen, I am, along with my eighteen year old son, very much looking forward to voting for the very first time. Like many citizens, I am interested in supporting the party with the best track record on the economy, job creation, small government and fiscal responsibility. Setting aside all of the political chatter and what each side claims about their record I thought I would look into this. Here is what I found.

Which party is better for the stock market? Slate magazine checked the numbers (in 2002) and found that since 1900, Democratic presidents have produced a 12.3 percent annual total return on the S&P 500 compared with an 8% return from the Republicans. Stock Trader's Almanac examined Dow appreciation and found similar numbers (13.4 percent versus 8.1 percent). [1]

Just weeks ago the New York Times examined how an investment of $10,000 would have grown under each party during this time. They found that a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. 500 would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only. If we exclude Herbert Hoover's disastrous depression numbers the growth rises to $51,211. The same investment made during Democratic presidents only, would have grown to $300,671.[2]

Does having a Republican Congress help the market? No, the record shows that a Democratic controlled Senate provided a higher return and a Democratic controlled House also enjoyed a higher return. [3]
.......
......
It's curious how effective false advertising has been for the Republican party. Contrary to the story they have sold nearly half the country, America has done very well under Democratic presidents, and in fact far better than under Republican presidents.

Darrel Henschell
Fayetteville, Arkansas

entire letter is here: http://fayfreethinkers.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5317

Cheers.
.

I'll take Obama/Biden by 353-185.

Prediction- Liddy Dole's lunatic atheist ad in North Carolina will help flip voters to Kay Hagan, Dole's opponent, and a few to Obama as well. And Florida will fall, a hard pill for Lieberman Lieberman of the Lieberman Lieberman Party to swallow. As a result, Lieberman will go insane and spend the rest of his days in a state hospital, attended by someone named Sarah Palin as his constant nursemaid.

My faithful dogs want to know if they can play, too. they would, of course, donate their winnings to the local animal shelter.

Jake, I thought that particular Fort Baptist poster ran thru the streets without benefit of clothing at least two Saturday nights a month anyway! Tonight he has an extra hour to scare little old ladies with those nekkid pictures of the president's mom. whose turn is it to go bail him out tonight?

Armani Ronnie -- I really like the sound of that. is there a newer term for that Jimmy Johnson hairdo?

322 Hussein
216 McCain

"I'll take Obama/Biden by 353-185."

That was my second choice. I see you gave MO to McThuselah...

Obama - 338
McCain - 200

Anybody seen the Gwatney Chevrolet TV commercials...the ones with the signs that look like campaign signs...and the sales manager as the candidate? It's haunting...seems bad taste in light of what happened to Gwatney...anybody else think it's just...well...wrong...and also...not very a very good TV ad?

I'm so dang superstitious, learned that from my grandma, don't want to put the hex on a win

for Obama, but must admit my heart is beating faster and faster and just can't wipe the

smile off my face. No guess on the outcome but, I'll take 1 point if its a win for the good guys.

Durango, gonna be at the party, cherie?? will we finally eyeball each other??

Plan a good showing from the Spa, even Baby Daughter might show up.

Kat, getting close, pack your bag....tho none of my 4 came early....had to use all kinds of

mumbo jumbo to intice them out into the world.

Hope to see you all tues night.

I'll try the contrarian approach -

McCain - 270
Obama - 268

I'm feeling optomistic. I'll go for a 351 Obama win over 187 for McCain

Keith Olbermann said on Countdown last night that Ben Affleck will be playing him on SNL tonight. Should be interesting. I wonder if they'll have "Keith" ranting about John McCain while McCain is actually appearing on SNL?

Here's mine:

Obama - 311
McCain - 227

Sarah Palin: Neiman Marxist (full story at blue name)

"Spending $150,000 for a one month wardrobe while painting yourself as a 'hockey mom' or the voice of 'Joe Six Pack' is an insult," says CNA executive director Rose Ann DeMoro. "There's been a lot of talk about Marxists in this campaign, but the real Marxist is in the McCain camp - she's just a Neiman Marxist."

Obama 268, McCain 270.

I'd rather be wrong than $500 richer. I'm an Arkie posting from a Motel 6 in Missouri, came up to knock on doors for Obama.

After scratching my head and watching over and over the Ma & Pa Kettle method of performing a mathematical calculation, I came up with the following:

333 Obama
205 McCain

Please make the check payable to................

I'll go with FiveThirtyEight.com's numbers from today:
Obama 344
McCain 194

Obama will win with 300 electoral votes

AR Blogger, can you give a breakdown by state?
Thanks,
kiz

O'Bama wins 301-237

344 Obama (44th President)
194 McCain

Oops. I see perrobravo beat me to those numbers. Okay, because I'm feeling optimistic and I just like moving the digits around from 538...

Obama 358
McCain 180

I'll go on to say that if McCain wins Arkansas it will be by no more than 55% (McCain) to 45% (Obama). If I could bet a dollar somewhere that Obama takes Arkansas I'd do it.

After much soul searching and pondering I will predict Obama- 298, McCain 203. Just too many rural racists in this country for it to be a landslide.

kizzy - Sorry, I can't do a state-by-state breakout. I'm just speculating that some voters won't show up and I'll win $50 bucks. I forgot to include a predicted "winner". For purposes of this contest, I'll say McCain.

I can provide a link to the web site I've been watching this year for polling data -

http://www.pollster.com/

I like their general methodology of aggregating several polls, and they have a good Flash interactive map to inspect each state's numbers.

I predict Texas Tech 39, Texas 33!

Obama 369, McCain 159

That game was a doozy Durango! I'm worn out!

Boy.....after watching McCain on Saturday Night Live....I'm thinking Obama 458 McCain 80.

The old man knows he's lost and lost big. He just ran up the white flag on this comedy show and while he was at it, he just buried Sarah Palin's chances in 2012. And on that subject...Obama has a million things to do, the war, the economy, the broken Justice system and on and on and on.

But I also hope President Obama, by leading, by the way he leads, by his example will bring back the world of ADULTS that we've lost over the last, oh I don't know 20 years or so. Imagine a nation ground to a stop because a President got a blowjob. Then a moron and an insane man take over the government and spent 8 years FK'ing us like we're 2 dollar whores.

Then the crooks, too engorged on stolen money and oil to think straight nominate as their replacements, a rest home refugee and a brainless TV anchor too incompetent to tell the same lie twice in a row before they made up something new. Where did all the adults go? No adult would buy into McCain-Palin. No adult would keep squawking WHERE IS OBAMA'S BIRTH CERTIFICATE????

Please bring back the fairness. Please bring back the honesty. Please bring back the dignity. Please bring back enough sense to fun our fricking country! No more Palins! No more Fred Thompsons! No more Mike Huckabees! Out of 300 million citizens, WE CAN DO BETTER!

I am hoping like hell to live in a totally different America by the end of Obama's first term. Bring the adults back. Enough of bizzaro Bush World.

"Durango, gonna be at the party, cherie?? will we finally eyeball each other??"

I hope so, jazzy, but not sure. Gonna get in line (if there is one) at 7 o'clock Tuesday night to vote. Then we have a private watch party to attend in the Heights. Maybe we can zip downtown for the AT blowout in between. If I'm there, I'll be wearing my Obama mask, but will take it off to kiss you (if you're willin'). Much to the sainted one's displeasure, I wore my Obama mask around the yard this morning. She's just knows that somebody in this heavily Republican 'hood of ours is gonna take a shot at me.

Goof, I'm like you: worn out from that game at Lubbock tonight. Nobody played harder for Texas Tech than I did. Surely, Alabama of the good old SEC-West will move into the nation's #1 spot tomorrow. On another SEC note, I enjoyed watching Full Philmer get his butt kicked by the 'cocks tonight, too.

Finally, as LargeAss might do, I WANT TO REMIND EVERYBODY TO SET THEIR CLOCKS BACK BEFORE GOING TO BED TONIGHT. I'M FIXIN' TO BEGIN SETTING MINE RIGHT NOW, ALL 1,000 OF THEM.

Durango - if you wear your Obama mask to vote at the Firestation, I will have a beer for you when you exit!

Obama/Biden - 293
McCain/Palin - 245

PS......last time I ran naked thru the streets of Fort Baptist was in 1992, then I started the long unpleasant process of sobering up just in time to greet the Cheney-Bush administration...abomination....abortionation.....whatever. Boy...did I pick a lousy 8 years to be sober.

Obama - 326
McCain - 212

I'm so excited that it's almost over...that Monkeyboy's plague is nearing an end...that you'd think I had an anniversary, birthday, Christmas, Easter, Fourth of July, Winter Solstice rolled into one and coming my way. But I'm trying to temper my anticipation with remembrances of the last two stolen elections...so I can make plans to march somewhere.

I'll toss a number out there when I figure out what's left...please donate my won fortune to the animals (Humane Society/etc...whichever one Max thinks makes the best use of the funds.) If that horrid anti-gay bill passes, however, send the money to whomever takes on the fight to overturn it....(right, skypilot?)

Went to Fayetteville to celebrate anniversary (34) with son/wife. I want their Farmers' Market...like heaven on earth...complete with volunteers walking around with shelter dogs. I bought local, mostly organic baby boc choy, baby carrots, spinach, shitakes, pickled okra/peppers/on and on; and brought back a few Obama signs/donated a few dollars. (The Dems had a booth...no McSame booth.) Only got one remark about the signs as I walked around and it was relatively mild. The booth folk said there had been a lot of sign stealing occurring; but I saw lots of Obama signs/McSame signs, too, around town....but more Razorback signs THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

Saw an incredible outdoor art showing at the Walton Center on Dickson...never seen anything quite like it. Three huge screens showing various dancers (all ages, races, both genders) in slow, SLOW motion. So slow you, at first, thought they were stills. Incredible!!! Then we stuffed ourselves at a restaurant on Dickson (Bordino's...yum)...then we watched quite a few drunk folk (2 Singapore Slings for me...with maraschino cherries, of course). It was a beautiful drive, great weather and, as always, a blessing to be with beloved family. It'd be perfect if everyone in the world had a full belly, full heart...like me.

Oh yeah...son/daughter-in-law rescued another neglected dog...three for them, one for us...a hoot for all.

Ok...I scratched my head, did the math thing: Obama--365; McSame--173. I'm an optomist.

Barack Obama Wins with 349 electoral votes

Zelda: Close. But that's one where you probably should have simply changed the sentence.

If it were a question and that were the end of the sentence, "give the money to whom?", it would be "whom." It would be "give the money to him," not "give the money to he."

But you need "who" as the subject of the following clause with the verb "takes," so it would be "who takes on the fight?" "He" takes on the fight, not "him" takes on the fight.

By comparison, "give the money to he who takes on the fight."

It doesn't SOUND right, because we wouldn't say "give the money to he." It's that clause that messes it up for us.

So this is a case where it would be "better" (or easier, or safer) to say, "give the money to the one who takes on the fight."

And with that you can understand why so many English teachers despair of ever teaching it correctly and why so many students pull out their hair while studying for tests then forget the whole thing and say whatever they wish when they get out of school. And as some have observed, it's probably an outdated grammatical convention that should be dispensed WITH.

Many of our grammatical conventions have their roots in "language behavior" that is either foreign or simply outmoded.

Lie, lay, lain; sit, sat, set; who, whom; will, shall; and several others just don't make that much difference to "every-day native speakers" of the language.

I still treasure the old conventions; but then, I'm an old geezer. For general reading, I still prefer the King James Version of the Bible; but I recognize that the English language has changed somewhat since that translation was produced; and in some cases, there are much better/clearer or more accurate (if you'll allow a comparitive with an absolute) words available now.

But you get an "E" for effort!

I think my prediction will have to change now that GOP is using Wright ads.

That'll hurt more than anything.

I have a feeling it's going to be one of these:

Obama 364 (my pick)
Obama 353 (Sound policy's pick)
Obama 338 (kizzy's pick)

292 The Intelligent One (Obama)
246 the other one

donate my wins to the Humane Society

I'll take your E, happily, skypilot. And, I completely understand your explanation. If I wasn't so determined to conquer those horrid words before I lay them to rest permanently, I would've changed the sentence...as I've done for years. Though I'm NOT a grammar queen, I usually know what's right/wrong even if my haste/laziness often produces, well, some screwed-up sentences. But who/whom have escaped my understanding for decades. Every time I think I've planted their place in our language firmly in my brain, the next occasion for use has me scratching my head and changing the sentence. Thanks for the lessens.

I don't know how I got one more electoral vote than you, JD, but I'm sure my math sucks. I'll be tickled pink if he JUST wins.

Well...they produce, not produces.

Nothing prompts a teacher to want to teach so much as a learner who wants to learn.

Hang in here with me, Zelda, and take this with a smile and a grain of something pleasant.

Yeah, "who" "whom" gets tougher when it gets injected into the middle of a complex sentence such as you had. It's simpler when it's in there "by itself." But you're to be applauded for your struggle.

But on your last one, "produce" "produces," you should have quit while you were ahead. ;-)

". . . if my haste/laziness often produces . . . ." was correct, since you combined them into a conceptual singular: "haste or laziness"; which takes the singular form of the verb: "produces," as in "it produces."

But, if they were a conceptual plural: "haste AND laziness . . . .", then, yes, it would have required the pluaral form: "produce": "they produce."

But this is not intended to be nit-picky or critical, Zelda. I'm not intending to rap your knuckles, but just to respond since you've expressed an interest.

I'm probably quite a bit older than you, and still working on the intricacies of my "native language." And residents of those fabled islands are loathe to call it "English."

Hey...I asked for and welcome your wisdom skypilot. I use to preview most of my posts 'cause I write hurriedly and, well, think free flow--ha. Usually a second glance gets the glitches...and the learning helps my aging mind stay one step ahead of decay. Anyway, I don't mind making mistakes (and fully expect to) if I ultimately know I made the mistake. I have found, however, that the lines that define when to use a plural/singular are often blurry. But unlike the who/whom irritation, it's 'usually' the choice that sounds best...that feels right. As always, though, the grammar bitch (yes, bitch) is a mercurial and often fickle mistress.

Blogs can produce some amazing, unexpected conversations...even if only two of us are interested. Sure glad Al Gore invented the Internet!

272-266 for Obama/Biden.

Yes, let's hear it for Al Gore. And thank him for inventing the Internet. It has certainly made this year's election different from the last one.

Usually I don't pay too much attention to the mechanics of writing on blogs:

1. I know most people write in a hurry, and there's no way to go back into a post and edit it after it's been posted--I found out much to my chagrin on about my first post. And I almost never catch EVERYTHING even when I proof read. I know what I intended to say, so am likely to "see" it that way even when I proof my posts.

2. I know content is always more important than mechanics. If what the writer intended is relatively clear, our minds can do a pretty good job of correcting as we go--unlike mathmatics.

3. I know most of us make a slip now and then; nobody's perfect. And sometimes spelling is pretty sophisticated, and difficult to remember on words we don't use often--and even on some we do.

4. I know most bloggers are not submitting their posts to have their writing graded.

So I'm a lot more likely to challenge logic, reasoning, evidence than I am mechanics: grammar, spelling, syntax, style. But if someone's interested, I don't mind commenting.

I, too, go a lot by "sound." I was fortunate to be raised in a family which knew and practiced good grammar. So in English class I could usually pick out the right answer becauses it "sounded right." It was much more of a chore when we had to learn the rules and be able to state and explain them, although I was blessed with the ability to figure out the parts of speech and be able to diagram sentences, etc. But I never got beyond a good high-high school capacity in that because I never studied grammar at the college level. Almost all of my English minors classes were in literature.

And although I clearly know better, I frequently misuse their/there, it/it's, to/too, and others in that category because I'm thinking of my thoughts instead of my word choice or spelling. But I think EVERYONE does that and, unfortunately, spell checkers can't help. And blogs don't even have spell checkers.

So, it's been a pleasant respite from politics to get into the "class room" for a few minutes today. Thanks for the conversation, and have a pleasant evening--and week.

And hope we have a REAL vistory to celebrate Wednesday!!!

Wow! "Mathematics"

And don't know how I missed that "high-high school."

I know how it happened in the first place; I just don't know how I missed it when I proof read.

[Proof red, but not guaranteed.]

I'm going out on a limb and predicting Arkansas by 30-23.

Obamab - 328
McCain - 210

Since McCain 270, Obama 268 is already taken, I will make my guess...

McCain 274
Obama 264

For a state by state, hour by hour analysis of my prediction check out it out here http://jasontcpa.blogspot.com/2008/10/election-night-preview-mccains-path-to.html
(thanks to RCP for the prediction tool). Note, for this contest I switched NM and CO because my guess was taken.

Obama will get 367
McCain will get 171

O-Ba-Ma 320
McCain 218

Obama: 367

McCain: 171

Sorry to repeat BWC!

Scatch that...to be different from BWC, I will award Obama a lone congressional district in Omaha, and predict this following:

Obama: 368

McCain: 170

Obama - 347
McSame - 191

Obama 334 McCain 197

Obama - 375
McCain - 163

JD nails it!

Excellent