Arkansas Blog: Political Animal predictions

Skip Rutherford, dean of the Clinton School and the founder 25 years ago of the Political Animals Club, shares his election night predictions. Another prediction of an Obama landslide. He predicts Republican gains in the Arkansas legislature and mentioned that the protest vote against Sen. Mark Pryor might be interesting to watch. He's pumping the lottery, too.

TO THE CLINTON SCHOOL POLITICAL ANIMALS CAUCUS:

Election Day Predictions:

Barack Obama will be elected President of the United States and by a comfortable margin. My final electoral count is 338-200 giving Obama the toss up states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. He could make it 339 with a win in one of Nebraska's Congressoinal Districts. John McCain will carry Arkansas. I also give him North Carolna, though it could go Senator Obama's way in a landslide. In fairness to Senator McCain,--- the fact that 90 percent of the American people think the country is headed in the wrong direction and President George W. Bush is more unpopular than President Richard Nixon the night before he resigned to avoid impeachment-- the odds have been against him from the beginning. President Bush even voted absentee to avoid the publicity of casting a public vote, and Vice President Cheney's Wymong endorsement of Senator McCain quickly turned into a television ad for Senator Obama. That was not the closing argument Senator McCain had hoped for and respectfully, the Vice President should have stayed in Washington and away from the cameras.

Senator McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate temporarily ignited the Republican conservative base, but the excitement was short-lived and other than drawing larger crowds than Senator McCain, Governor Palin ended up hurting more than helping. Large majorities believe she is not qualified to be President.

The best line of the 2008 campaign came in late August from Clinton School student Nicholas Hall: "I'm impressed. It took John McCain only one interview to pick a Vice President. It took me three interviews to get a server's job at Ruby Tuesday." .

Governor Palin's inexperience further highlighted concerns associated with Senator McCain's age and health..

The economic crisis also aided Senator Obama. Senator McCain's bizarre decision to suspend his campaign and return to Washington to supposedly orchestrate bailout legislation proved to be a fatal political error. Senator Obama never again lost the lead in the polls.

Senator Obama's big win actually was in the semifinals when he defeated Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Had she won the Democratic nomination, Senator Clinton no doubt would have defeated Senator McCain too--probably by an even larger margin than Senator Obama will Tuesday. She certainly deserves praise for her dedicated efforts for Senator Obama.

In addition to the Presidential campaign, I'm following an Arkansas issue with great interest.

I cast my ballot on the first day of early voting. and I voted for the Arkansas lottery--the proceeds of which will go to higher education scholarships. Since Arkansans are already flocking in large numbers to border states to purchase lottery tickets, I believe we should establish our own form of Hope Scholarships like those created by the highly successful Georgia state lottery. I have favored a lottery for college scholarships for many years because Arkansas, unfortunately, ranks 50th in the number of bachelor degrees and 50th in the number of master degrees. Student loan debt is a major contributor to these low numbers and more scholarships are needed. They've certainly made a big difference in Georgia. These new Arkansas scholarships should be made available to some medical school and law school students too.

There is a debate over how much money an Arkansas lottery will generate. Estimates range from $60 million to $100 million annually. Whatever the actual number turns out to be, millions of new dollars every year will be designated for college scholarships and that's positive. Lt. Governor Bill Halter deserves credit for leading the initative and Halter's Little Rock Catholic High School football coach, George Loss, wins for the most effective television campaign commercial with his pro lottery message. I'm cautiously optimistic it will pass.

As I try to do every four years, I plan to watch Presidential election returns at home and be accessible by email. Virginia's polls close at 6 p.m..CST folowed by Ohio at 6:30 p.m. and Florida/Pennsvlvania at 7 p.m. If my predictions are right, it could be over early. Election night parties can be fun, but I will also be following local, state and national results, and that's much easier to do at home rather than among large crowds.

If you're interested in the White County Judge's race; who made the runoff for Mayor in Fayetteville and Jonesboro; whether a 27 year old Republican will be elected to Congress from Illinois or whether a 26 year old Democrat will be elected to Congress from Indiana, I'll be following them and many more. Think what the United States Senate will be like with Al Franken and look for the Republicans to gain state legislative seats in Arkansas. Keep an eye on the number of votes Green candidate Rebekah Kennedy receives against United States Senator Mark Pryor.

I must admit I've broken my "election night at home" rule twice. In 1992, as I was standing in front of the Old State House in downtown Little Rock watching President elect Clinton's acceptance speech, the late attorney Herschel Friday came up to me and said, "Tomorrow, we've got to start thinking about the Presidential Library." I didn't know what a Presidential Library was, but I soon learned. Four years later in 1996, I was back downtown to celebrate once again with a Presidential Library high on my list.

If the 1992 Clinton War Room changed the way campaigns were run, so has the 2008 Obama technology. Time Magazine most likely will name Senator Obama as its 2008 Personality of the Year. Facebook, You Tube and text messaging should get runners up.

I'll see those of you in Arkansas Tuesday morning at the River Market for the Political Animals Caucus. Others please email your electoral college predictions to Sara Himelfarb.

Get ready for White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in 2009 and Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana running in 2012. Let the speculation begin.

-- Skip Rutherford

Comments

I certainly cast my Rebekah Kennedy vote with zeal; I am grateful to her for running. I hope many joined me.

Posted by: mag | November 3, 2008 08:34 AM

Pryor's cringe-worthy appearance in Religulous, along with his friendship with Joe Lieberman was more than enough to get me to cast my lot with Kennedy. I bet more than expected will do the same.

Posted by: gloves | November 3, 2008 08:39 AM

Pryor's campaign this year is a joke. His claim to fame for his ads is his lead free toy legislation. Then he throws in this years favorite word "Change" and what do you get? Not a whole lot. Tell me how he represents "Change"? A reported $5 million campaign fund and this is what he comes up with. He probably gave more to the campaign funds of anyone running for the state legislature, with Democrat after their names, than he did on his own campaign. Even one who is running as a hard right conservative who is claiming that he will protect the environment but taking money from the natural gas industry at the same time.

Posted by: saywhat | November 3, 2008 09:01 AM

Starting at 7pm on Tuesday, November 4, the Green Party of Arkansas will have an
Election Watch Party at Juanita's Restaurant's party room located on Main Street
in Little Rock between 12th and 13th Streets.

Many of the Arkansas Green candidates and their supporters will be present.
Below is a list of Arkansas Green Party members running for office in Arkansas.

U.S. Senate - Rebekah Kennedy
http://www.kennedy2008.org/

U.S. Congress Second District - Deb McFarland
http://deb2008.org/

U.S. Congress Third District - Abel Tomlinson
http://abelforcongress.com/

U.S. Congress Fourth District - Joshua Drake
http://drake08.org

Conrad Harvin - State Rep. District 33
CONRAD4HOUSE33@comcast.net
Richard Carroll - State Rep. District 39
Carrollfor39@earthlink.net
Gene Mason - State Rep. District 42
Brian Barnett - State Rep. District 50
http://brianbarnett.us
Mary Boley - State Rep. District 68
http://www.myspace.com/maryboley4staterep
Wendy Crow - State Rep. District 90
wendymcrow@yahoo.com
Elizabeth McCoy - Chicot County Assessor
Wainnette Copass - Pulaski County JP District 6
Richard Suits - JP District 4 Sebastian County
dicksuits092232@yahoo.com
Bernard Sulliban - Fayetteville City Council
bsulliban@yahoo.com
Glen Schwarz - Little Rock Board of Directors

Posted by: Jim Lendall | November 3, 2008 09:02 AM

Skip is right, the Republicans are going to win some seats in the state house for the first time in 8 years. There will be one big surprise on election night in the legislative races, John VanGorder is going to beat Steve Breedlove in Dist. 67 (Greenwood, Charleston area). Look for the Republicans to come back with 30 members in the next session.

Posted by: Bob | November 3, 2008 09:13 AM

I do hope we get a viable second party in this state.

We have seen what unopposed control of government by one party can do on the national level with Bush and the Republicans. Massive deficets and lied into war. Unopposed local one party rule results in the same problem. (Except that we can't run a state deficet and we can't go to war) But you get my idea.

I predict that in the midterm elections nationally Republicans will regain the Senate since there will be plenty of pain over the next two years that will all be blamed on the Democratic Party.

That would be a good thing since we need checks and balances for our system to work.

Posted by: Citizen home | November 3, 2008 09:29 AM

I too will vote for Ms. Kennedy despite her being as little qualified as is Sarah Palin. My vote for Ms. Kennedy will be an encouragement to a competent Democrat to challenge the vacuous Pryor next time around.

Posted by: Janus | November 3, 2008 09:35 AM

I voted for Kennedy, too. At least she stands for something.

Posted by: sellercreek | November 3, 2008 10:01 AM

"Halter's Little Rock Catholic High School football coach, George Loss, wins for the most effective television campaign commercial with his pro lottery message." Skip Rutherford

Skip, tell me you are being facetious. That ad is so bad I can't get the channel changed fast enough. The same was true when Halter ran a similar ad when he ran for lite gov. Awful is too kind a word to describe that commercial. Thank goodness for TV remote controls!

Posted by: Sound Policy | November 3, 2008 10:43 AM

My wife and I are still getting goosebumps from our early voting experience last Saturday. It felt real good to vote the Green Party for all the Arkansas races. Even if he wins, imagine what future historians will make of Mark W. Pryor's lead painted toys campaign during a time of American up evil that rivals the disastrous days of the Civil War. At least Nero made a little music while Rome burned.

I'm sorry I didn't get the chance to vote against Republican in sheep's clothing, Bill Walters. I hope the people of Greenwood have enough sense to banish him and the missus from our state government forever.

Posted by: Deathbyinches | November 3, 2008 12:30 PM

"It felt real good to vote Green Party for all the Arkansas races."??? Are you kidding me? What a waste of friggin time and effort. I'm sure all 12 of you will have a great election night party...geez.

Posted by: Nemo | November 3, 2008 01:39 PM

Nemo,
I agree with you that Green Party votes are wasted, but I do think that Skip is right that Kennedy will get a pretty good number of votes. All in a losing effort of course. You see, voting for a nutjob like Rebekah Kennedy is fun for a lot of people, especially like the overdramatic blowhards that frequently post on this blog. Why?... because they can be revolutionary without the risk of actually having to be stuck with their choice in office, cause they KNOW she ain't gonna win. They spew lines and lines of crap about Pryor that is so over the top and dramatic that Shakespere would give them a standing ovation, and in the same breath talk about how Rebekah "stands for something." They KNOW what she and her crazy party stand for is the most bizarre witches brew of nutty ass ideas that doesn't do squat to help us in these tough times. What you say? Well as the basement dwellers on this blog rip Pryor about "being out of touch" by working on and passing legislation that takes the lead out of childrens toys and bans many other unsafe products from our shelves, Rebekah and her party want to make sure that we end the congressional charter of the Boy Scouts and that all our health plans include coverage for "gender reassignment." I could go on, as the Green party list of ideas just gets nuttier and more out of touch.
No Nemo, if people really thought they could get stuck with Rebekah, they'd paint Pryor logos on thier cars and answer every question asked of them with the slogan,"Arkansas Comes First."
So, let them have fun with their protest vote and blog about it...cause that's as good as it gets for these computer commandos.

Posted by: NaturalStater | November 3, 2008 03:25 PM

NaturalStater:
Let's not forget the Queen Nut, Green Party presidential candidate Cynthia McKinney, who accused the Department of Defense of using Hurricane Katrina to cover up the slaughter of 5,000 prisoners. She claimed the Pentagon authorized the execution of the prisoners with one bullet to the head three years ago and then dumped their bodies in a Louisiana swamp. What a role model for Rebekkah Kennedy.

Posted by: ClearView | November 3, 2008 06:05 PM

I voted Green wherever I could, except when there was a Dem against a Repub when I voted Dem. I figure that maybe as a long shot the Dems will start leaning a bit more left because of it.

Those that hate third parties can hate me for it, I just don't CARE what you think.

Posted by: rablib | November 4, 2008 03:00 PM

Arkansas Blog

Political Animal predictions

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