Arkansas Blog

I pulled the 2008 population data, and came up with a bit different result

Dallas, Conway, Arkansas, Jackson, Jefferson, Monroe, Pulaski, Pope, Lonoke top 10
Newton, Benton, Montgomery, Clay, Randolph, Madison, Carroll, Fulton, Ashley, Lafayette bottom 10

What might be interesting is outlets per capita. I think that might be telling in some of the bottom counties, as they have likely have lesser access to outlets (this doesn't apply to Benton County).

Modified XLS on anoncow

I was interested in Benton County, bordered by Okla lottery and 15 min or less from Missouri lottery.

Population=203,700
Lottery spending=$326,700

$1.61 per capita

Thanks Anoncow for doing the computation I couldn't do. I didn't rank ALL counties by per capita. I took the 10 ten in dollar sales and then computed, by hand, THEIR per capita sales and ranked them. I didn't attempt to find the top sellers per capita. You did my work for me.

I find it disturbing that people are so eager to use race for broad generalizations in this matter.

As we've discussed many times on this blog, statistics can be cooked to "prove" any bias. I am most interested in the sales related to per capita income. Newton county has usually had a lower per capita income than most other parts of Arkansas, but the low number of and difficult access to ticket outlets may account for the low amount spent there. So, as you watch the various numbers and their accompanying rhetoric bandied about, realize that you are probably not getting the full honest analysis.

If the sales stats are available per vendor, some better demographics can be found within census tracts.

This lottery would be greatly improved if we picked the winner by dropping golf balls from a hot air balloon.

No problem Max. It's easy to do if you know where to find the data (which the US Census Bureau doesn't make obvious) and get it dumped into XLS (which they make even less obvious), it's a cut and paste job. If I had more data from the Lotto folks, I'd do more comparisons (again, I bet you see some correlation between sales per capita and outlets per capita ranks in some counties like Newton). Some interesting statistics could likely be found. I almost expect an increase in some counties once Powerball sales fire up, as several of the low counties border MO where trips across the border are common for liquor, and Miller was 11th lowest, so people can/are getting MegaMillions tickets in Texas when they go to Target/BestBuy/etc in the Texas side of Texarkana.

I tend to agree with Jim and Arkansas Blogger here on some of the generalizations. Correlation does not always equal causation. Sure Arkansas and Jefferson counties are up there in terms of sales per capita, but so are Conway, Pope, and Lonoke, the latter being counties of >90% white race identities. Without running some analysis I'm too lazy to do right now with data I don't have in front of me, I'd venture to guess a not statistically significant correlation between race and lotto sales. More than likely, per capita income and outlets per capita have much more significant statistical effects than race.

Newton County, the bottom in the lottery sales rankings, has only one outlet -- Bob's Supermarket at Jasper -- unless things have changed in the past two weeks or so.

So, Max, what do the early numbers tell us about the predictions on first year totals? I know there are other things to consider (fall off, power ball, etc.) But, what does this group think the revenue will be for year 1 now that we have some results?

If the availability of other gambling options lessens participation, perhaps the proximity of Tunica affects Phillips County. Knowing a serious gambler or two, I'd certainly guess it does. Hitting the boats the weekend after you get your paycheck, then coming home and raiding Mama's pantry for a few groceries tells you how much is left for lottery tickets.
Still, I'd guess a few piggy banks got busted. Then there's the penny jar . . .
After hearing about that hundred grand payoff, I believe I'm gonna have to root around under couch cushions myself.