The gubernatorial poll | Arkansas Blog

Sunday, August 27, 2006

The gubernatorial poll

Posted By on Sun, Aug 27, 2006 at 4:06 PM

Having cooked lunch, read the NYT and been to a movie ("Little Miss Sunshine," see it), I see Arkansas News is now updated for Sunday, where Brummett offers a few kind words for pollsters Ernie and Zoe Oakleaf  and where a news article explores the vagaries of polling.

There's news in the news article: 1) John Zogby says he has Beebe up by 8 points in his latest. 2) The widely criticized demographic sample, heavily weighted to older voters, seems to reflect the demographic found among actual voters in the last election in exit polling by Republicans. We'd note, too, that the overbalance of self-identified Democrats was not far beyond what the University of Arkansas Poll found in its last sampling of the populace. Far more consider themselves Democrats than Republicans. That fact, you might observe, is reflected in the percentage of officeholders.

Real numbers will be available soon enough. But 52 percent for Beebe (which the Oakleaf poll found) still does not sound far-fetched to me.

David Sanders contributed some words on the subject, too. He said the 40-20 split of Democrats and Republicans in the poll must be wrong because Republicans get 30 to 40 percent of the vote. But these are two different propositions. One is political self-identification (where other studies in Arkansas show a similar gap); the other is voting, in which people who consider themselves independent make a partisan choice. A$a indeed got 31 percent of the "votes" in this particular poll. And he might well carry a disproportionate amount of the 10 percent or so undecided. The Oakleaf poll doesn't suggest he won't get the Republican base vote of 40 percent. But its findings on A$a's negatives suggest he faces an uphill climb -- at least in a sounding before his and related attack advertising began against Beebe -- in moving beyond that base.

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (14)

Showing 1-14 of 14

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-14 of 14

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Readers also liked…

  • LR speakers blast state board for double standard

    A series of speakers, beginning with Sen. Joyce Elliott, denounced what they saw as a hidden agenda favoring charter schools at the state Department of Education and asked the state Board of Education for return of local control.
    • May 12, 2016
  • The two cities of Little Rock: East/west, black/white

    The Little Rock City Board illustrated this week a community divided over public schools, another blow to the Little Rock School District and another illustration of the need for ward elections to the board.
    • Mar 23, 2017
  • Kenneth Starr: A comment from Betsey Wright

    Betsey Wright, former President Bill Clinton's chief of staff when he was Arkansas governor, responds bitterly to a New York Times article today quoting Whitewater Prosecutor Kenneth Starr's warm words about Clinton. She can't forget the lives Starr ruined in Arkansas.
    • May 24, 2016

Most Shared

  • Conflicts of interest in the legislatures

    The Center for Public Integrity and the Associated Press collaborated for a project aimed at highlighting state legislators whose lawmaking might be affected by private business interests.
  • Industrial hemp pilot program coming soon to Arkansas

    One of the booths at this week's Ark-La-Tex Medical Cannabis Expo was hosted by the Arkansas Hemp Association, a trade group founded to promote and expand non-intoxicating industrial hemp as an agricultural crop in the state. AHA Vice President Jeremy Fisher said the first licenses to grow experimental plots of hemp in the state should be issued by the Arkansas State Plant Board next spring.
  • Cats and dogs

    I've always been leery of people who dislike animals. To my wife and me, a house without dog hair in the corners and a cat perched on the windowsill is as barren as a highway rest stop. We're down to three dogs and two cats, the smallest menagerie we've had for years.

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation