Poll: A$a in the lead!?! | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Poll: A$a in the lead!?!

Posted By on Tue, Oct 31, 2006 at 8:34 AM

According to this (liberal) website with a list of recent polling, a new Zogby Poll puts A$a up over Beebe 48.2-45.3.

It is from the Wall Street Journal Battleground poll, in which participants select into a panel from which the sample is drawn. The commentary suggests Hutchinson is benefitting from a surge among the Republican base and that Hutchinson enjoys a 14-point lead among independents, a finding we find hard to credit.

The result is certainly what's known in the trade as an "outlier" -- but I suspect Repubs will be as ready to embrace it as Democrats are ready to reject it, given Arkansas Poll, Opinion Research, Rasmussen, ASU and Survey USA polls with decidedly different outcomes.

Zogby methodology is on the jump. (In Ark., the margin of error is 4.3 percent.)

ZOGBY STATEMENT ON METHODOLOGY

These polls were conducted by Zogby International. Online polls were conducted by the company's Zogby Interactive unit. Phone polls were conducted by Zogby International.

Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.

Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 20 states (AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.8 to 4.4% percentage points. All polls track likely voters. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

Beginning Oct. 19, results include "leaning" voters -- those who are leaning toward a candidate but haven't yet committed. Respondents who answer "not sure" to "for whom would you vote" questions, are asked "if you had to choose today, who would you say you are leaning toward." Responses to the followup question are added to those from the initial question.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 26 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

For the overall party breakdowns shown on the governor and senate panels: Races that aren't being polled are assumed to stay in the current party's possession.

Until the candidate fields were narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls matched up multiple candidates in each state and identified some of the strongest candidates from each party. Beginning Sept. 28, 2006, poll results shown reflect major party and third-party candidates. Results for the candidates polling third place or below in any given matchup are shown only if one of those candidates in a particular match polls 5% or higher.

This graphic highlights a sampling of matchups for each race. In some cases, Zogby has polled additional matchups that aren't included in the graphic. Full polling results are available from Zogby.

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