Polling recap | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Polling recap

Posted By on Thu, Nov 16, 2006 at 8:21 AM

Lots of people are reviewing pollster's work now to see who did well and who didn't. Wall Street Journal, which I can't link, was one of them, but their article included this:

Zogby's online polls "just blew it" in Colorado and Arkansas governor races, Chief Executive John Zogby told me. (See Zogby's scorecard.12) In other races, such as the two Senate races I mentioned, "we had the right direction but a closer race than the final." One explanation, he said, may be that Zogby's final online polls collected responses one to two weeks before the election, whereas other polling firms were active until the final week. "We have more work to do" to improve online polling, Mr. Zogby said, but he added, "we believe it's not only the wave of the future, but the future is very close to now."

We've mentioned before how well Stephens Media's pollster, Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock, did in assessing the races compared with outcomes, though their polls were widely derided by Republicans at the time. Looking back at the findings by Ernie and Zoe Oakleaf, I note that they not only nailed the governor's race and all the rest, the internal numbers showed them hitting the bullseye with a prediction of a 51 percent vote for Asa Hutchinson in the heavily Republican Third District. During the campaign, this finding, particularly, came in for GOP scorn. It tells the story of the Hutchinson campaign.

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