Handicapping 2008 | Arkansas Blog

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Handicapping 2008

Posted By on Wed, Nov 29, 2006 at 8:07 AM

Charlie Cook, a respected national analyst, does some early forecasting on the race for the Republican presidential nomination, giving most of his attention to Giuliani, McCain and Romney.

He mentions a poll he's done:

In a Nov. 9-12 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies nationwide survey of 626 Republican voters and independents who lean toward the GOP, Giuliani had a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., 27 percent to 25 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., was in third place with 10 percent and outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) was in fourth, with 9 percent. Rounding out the field, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) had 4 percent; GOP governors George Pataki and Mike Huckabee of New York and Arkansas, respectively, each had 2 percent; Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., and Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., both had 1 percent; and Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., and Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., each garnered less than 1 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided.

Giuliani's support has ranged between 24 and 32 percent in previous Cook Political Report/RT Strategies polls. McCain has fluctuated between 20 and 29 percent and Gingrich has polled between 6 and 12 percent. Romney started off around 3 percent and has ranged from 5 to 9 percent in more recent polling.

 

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