Did Huckabee Jump the Shark? | Arkansas Blog

Monday, December 31, 2007

Did Huckabee Jump the Shark?

Posted By on Mon, Dec 31, 2007 at 6:13 PM

When once-popular television shows reach a point of ridiculousness in story line from which they will never recover, they are said to have "jumped the shark" (a reference to Fonzie's waterski jump moment on Happy Days).  Some observers, including ones Max links below, are suggesting that today's fairly interesting press conference when he decried negative ads then showed a negative ad is that moment for Mike Huckabee.  One such observer is one my fellow travellers on my Iowa trip, Tom Schaller, writing in the American ProspectI tend to disagree.   While it was a fairly risky strategy, it may pay off for a few reasons.  First, Huckabee's truest believers are likely to buy his critique and believe it to be sincere.  This will give them energy to stay fired up for the caucuses and remind them of the nonconventionality and faith-based politics that has drawn them to Huckabee.   In addition, we know from a lot of research that negative campaigning tends to reduce turnout.  The Republican side in Iowa already has a turnout problem, only accentuated by the high energy and generally positive campaigns on the Democratic side.   Huckabee knows that if the GOP caucus comes down to turnout created purely through organizational strength, Romney will win.  Thus, turnout needs to be relatively high so Huckabee can take advantage of the generally positive views of him among Iowa voters.  An all-out negative war probably only benefits Romney.  


Favorite

Comments (3)

Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

More by jaybarth

  • Office space

    My fellow travelers and I had a little field trip today that was incredibly insightful into the cultures of a handful of the campaigns, including those of the three Democratic frontrunners.  And, the differences in the office cultures are indicative of the stylistic differences of the candidates more generally.  For a good piece on those differences, go here.
    • Jan 2, 2008
  • The turnout game

    Before a flurry of activities begin later in the day, we're having a little down time to catch up on sleep, recaffeinate, and generally gird ourselves for the intensity of the next 36 hours.   The candidates are all over the state today before reconverging on Des Moines for events this evening.  Of course, while a lot of attention has been paid to the last round of polls (especially the well-respected Des Moines Register poll that's been critiqued heavily by the trailing Edwards and Clinton campaigns), tomorrow night is really about how many turn out and which demographic groups turn out.   For comparison, in 2004, while it's a little unclear exactly how many Democrats participated, it probably was just under 120,000.  We have to go back to 2000 to get a decent comparative number on the GOP side; that year, about 90,000 votes were cast.   Go to the jump for an analysis of how varying turnouts could affect the leading candidates.
    • Jan 2, 2008
  • The turnout game

    Before a flurry of activities begin later in the day, we're having a little down time to catch up on sleep, recaffeinate, and generally gird ourselves for the intensity of the next 36 hours.   The candidates are all over the state today before reconverging on Des Moines for events this evening.  Of course, while a lot of attention has been paid to the last round of polls (especially the well-respected Des Moines Register poll that's been critiqued heavily by the trailing Edwards and Clinton campaigns), tomorrow night is really about how many turn out and which demographic groups turn out.   For comparison, in 2004, while it's a little unclear exactly how many Democrats participated, it probably was just under 120,000.  We have to go back to 2000 to get a decent comparative number on the GOP side; that year, about 90,000 votes were cast.   Go to the jump for an analysis of how varying turnouts could affect the leading candidates.
    • Jan 2, 2008
  • More »

Readers also liked…

  • Among the last words from Kenneth Williams: 'Finger Lickin' Good Fried Chicken'

    What's purported to be a final-words essay from condemned prisoner Kenneth Williams was distributed today by Deborah Robinson, a freelance journalist in Arkansas.  He reflects on his execution, his victims, reactions of inmates and big servings of fried chicken, which he says are given to all inmates on execution days.
    • Apr 27, 2017
  • Trump tariffs hit farmers hard

    Well, the trade war has begun and the early returns for farmers are not good — sharp reductions in the prices for soybeans and corn. You may have heard that Arkansas, which overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump, has some agricultural interests, particularly in soybeans.
    • Jul 6, 2018
  • Police identify two women found fatally shot on Chicot Road

    Little Rock police have identified two women found dead of gunshot wounds in an SUV parked next to a vacant trailer in a mobile home park at 11500 Chicot Road.
    • May 16, 2017

Slideshows

  • Arkansas vs Ole Miss at War Memorial stadium in Little Rock, Saturday, Oct. 13, 2018. After leading for much of the game, Arkansas lost 37-33 when Ole Miss scored the game winning Touchdown with less that 2 minutes left. 
  • Margaret Clark Adventure Park
    New sculptures, preschoolers play area dedicated in Riverfront Park in Little Rock.

Most Recent Comments

 

© 2018 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation