A defining debate | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, October 9, 2008

A defining debate

Posted By on Thu, Oct 9, 2008 at 6:12 AM

Brummett feels the second presidential debate solidified Obama's role as front-runner. But:

Only two things give me pause in declaring an emerging Obama victory next month. One is the ugly and intensified personal attack on him that we can still expect from Republicans. The other is the "Bradley effect," named for the black former mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who always polled a few points better than he ran.

If that's the case with Obama, then he may not really be ahead in some of these tight swing states. Tactically, the way to exploit a Bradley effect would be to make personal attacks on Obama that would give those actually motivated by pure race a supposed cover.


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