The shape of the legislature | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The shape of the legislature

Posted By on Tue, Oct 14, 2008 at 3:31 PM

I just noticed that The Arkansas Project Today carried some forecasting on the Arkansas legislature following Nov. 4. The item quotes party chair Dennis "What we need is another 9/11" Milligan as saying the Republican Party could pick up six seats in the election.

The Democrats seem likely to lose one seat. The Dwayne Dobbins seat will go Green or to a write-in. Unless Dobbins' late lawsuit forces his name onto the ballot and then, who knows?

I have my doubts about the degree of Democratic Party organizing, though I've been assured a consultant has been hired, polling has been done, money has been raised. But, even so, a swing of several seats is clearly possible. A depressed Republican turnout on account of a demoralized McCain campaign wouldn't hurt the Democrats.

Races to watch closely Three in Pulaski County currently Democratic -- two in the northern reaches and the Heights race in which John Edwards hopes to beat a Huckabite. Two in Saline County, both currently Democratic. Two Democratic seats in White County.

Possible Democratic pickups in current Republican seats: The seat Michael Lamoureux is vacating in Russellville; newly minted Democrat Bill Walters' race for District 62 in Sebastian County; District 64 in Fort Smith, where Mike Bock opposes another in the unending string of Boozman/Hutchinson/Hendren clansmen; District 85 in Boone County (yes, this would be a historic switch).

Incumbents in tight races include two Dems, Reps. Steve Breedlove in Greenwood and Jim House in Fayetteville, and Republican Rep. Mark Martin of Prairie Grove, opposed by Earl Hunton, son of former legislator and County Judge Jerry Hunton.

Here's the state ballot if you want to see all the specifics of each race.

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