Who will vote? | Arkansas Blog

Friday, October 31, 2008

Who will vote?

Posted By on Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 6:51 AM

Here's an analysis of the latest NYT poll numbers, favorable to Obama, that gets down to the question I raised yesterday about the early vote.

Will there be an influx of first-time voters as as result of either the big registration drives or enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy? If there is, the outlook is good. If not ...

Recent polls in swing states North Carolina and Missouri show rural voters favoring McCain in big numbers, enough to offset urban votes and put McCain neck-and-neck with Obama in those states. (Of course, North Carolina was supposed to be a GOP runaway at one time.) But new voters and a better-than-expected minority turnout will affect these numbers.

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