More Prop. 8 analysis | Arkansas Blog

Friday, November 21, 2008

More Prop. 8 analysis

Posted By on Fri, Nov 21, 2008 at 10:17 AM

Nate Silver, the numbers-crunching wizard who founded the indispensable fivethirtyeight.com, is interviewed here. He offers worthy -- and less divisive -- insight on the Prop. 8 vote in California. It's an analysis that applies nationwide, in a hopeful way, over the long haul. (Yes, of course, Arkansas will trail the growth curve.)

Why do you think Prop. 8 passed?

Well, every year the gay marriage bans have a more and more difficult time passing; this is principally a generational issue, and you have younger, generally more tolerant voters replacing older, generally less tolerant ones. If you sort of plotted those numbers out, and then adjusted for the fact that California is more progressive than other states that had passed gay marriage bans, you could see that Prop 8 was going to turn out to be very, very close — within a few points in one direction or the other. When an election is close, the side running the better campaign is usually going to win. In this case, for better or for worse, the 'Yes' side had a big head start in fundraising in messaging, and the 'No' side couldn't catch up in time.

There continues to be new polls showing a shift on America's changing attitudes towards marriage equality. Should we take them seriously? Is there any evidence that people are making up their minds one way or another on the issue?

People are making up their minds for marriage equality — it's just happening very, very slowly. Eight years ago, I don't think there are any states in the country that would have voted to uphold gay marriage — maybe Vermont and Hawaii. This year, you might have had a dozen states that would have voted against a Prop 8 type of measure — pretty much everything in New England, for instance, with California winding up just on the other side of the dividing line. Eight years from now, probably half the country will be ready for gay marriage.

What I don't know is whether the passage of Prop 8 will clarify the issue for certain people and tend to accelerate the process. It very well might.

But it might only if the media engages the issue. Last night, given the chance, Rachel Maddow went in the tank in an opportunity to ask Mike Huckabee about his long unfriendliness to equal treatment of gay people.

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (9)

Showing 1-9 of 9

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-9 of 9

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Readers also liked…

  • IHOP coming down, but .....

    I always scan the Little Rock City Board for items of interest this week and this one caught my eye: A zoning measure required by a proposal to tear down the IHOP at Markham and University.
    • Apr 30, 2016
  • Free Zinn book for Arkansas teachers

    Arkansas teachers! Get your free Howard Zinn book here! Whether Kim Hendren likes it or not.
    • Mar 3, 2017
  • Kenneth Starr: A comment from Betsey Wright

    Betsey Wright, former President Bill Clinton's chief of staff when he was Arkansas governor, responds bitterly to a New York Times article today quoting Whitewater Prosecutor Kenneth Starr's warm words about Clinton. She can't forget the lives Starr ruined in Arkansas.
    • May 24, 2016

Most Shared

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation