Poll: Snyder in trouble | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Poll: Snyder in trouble

Posted By on Thu, Jan 14, 2010 at 8:51 PM

A Survey USA poll commissioned by liberal blog Firedoglake shows U.S. Rep. Vic Snyder badly trailing Republican challenger Tim Griffin. The bottom line: 56-39 Griffin, with 5 percent undecided. The poll only tested Griffin, though others have announced as Republicans. Griffin enjoys national Republican support.

This poll suggests that Snyder gets not a single vote behind the proven historic Democratic base of about 40 percent in the district and Griffin gets every single vote beyond the proven 40 percent Republican base. Hard to believe for a virtual unknown. As with the Blanche Lincoln polling, I think it's more of a measure of opinion about an incumbent versus the ideal anybody-but. Elections are about much more than that, particularly since Snyder opponents have long been at work and, as is his custom, Snyder hasn't begun fund-raising yet.

Still, it's trouble, big trouble.

The survey has an aim -- to show any Democrat who votes for a health insurance bill with mandated coverage to be in big trouble. The liberal blogs don't like the legislation and think the mandate particularly will be election poison. Their push is all about pushing the legislation in the final negotiations to a form that allows a later hoped-for run at the better option, something akin to single-payer insurance.

It seems fratricidal to me. Good liberals, whose aims I share, are buttressing the Republican story line that nothing is better than something and that proven friends of the medically needy like Vic Snyder are somehow industry tools whose defeat is of little consequence. They want a tool, let them help elect a Karl Rove Republican.

Here are the full results. I'm told Pulaski accounted for about 56 percent of the respondents, so the traditional Democratic vote here was well represented. Blacks were undersampled -- 11 percent against the 19 percent in the district -- but the belief is that they will be underrepresented in November on account of total lack of enthusiasm. Buried in the findings is one hopeful thing: A majority of Second District poll respondents WANT some kind of health bill, not nothing.

For some background: Here's Kos, explaining why -- at a miniumum -- the mandated health insurance purchase has to go.

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