Lincoln's election outlook grim | Arkansas Blog

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Lincoln's election outlook grim

Posted By on Wed, Jun 30, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Nate Silver has done a post-primary analysis of U.S. Senate races and concludes things are slightly better for the Democrats. He thinks Republicans "will need a lot of luck" to take over the Senate.

However, U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln will need divine intervention. Silver rates her chance at winning as, essentially, zero.

... it's not hard to see why she's in trouble. She's way behind, her approval ratings are terrible, the polling is robust, the GOP nominated a competent challenger, Arkansas is a red state, and the numbers in races with incumbents tend to be less amenable to dramatic last-minute comebacks than those with two newbies. If Democrats spend much money on her, they are potentially costing themselves a win somewhere like Missouri or North Carolina, or a hold in an Illinois or a Washington.

He said he would take 300-1 odds on Lincoln, however.

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