Open line and catchup | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Open line and catchup

Posted By on Tue, Jul 20, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Sorry folks. More Internet connectivity problems at the Times today.

Take it away.

Some final reports from me:

* U.S. Attorney Jane Duke, on assignment to Oklahoma because of a local recusal, led a team that produced a wide-ranging corruption indictment against current and former Tulsa police officers.

* Blanche Lincoln? Fugheddaboudit says numbers cruncher Nate Silver. Save your money for a Democrat who might win. He cites polling putting her behind by 17 to 31 points. PS — He didn't think Halter could win either.

Candidates, particularly incumbent candidates, just don't come back from deficits like this very often. Harry Reid is considered hugely lucky to have moved back into a dead heat in Nevada — but he was down by only about 10 points in his worst moments, not 20 or 25 points, like Lincoln is. Lincoln would probably need at least two major strokes of luck to come back against Boozman — two macaca moments. And there's no particular reason to think that she's liable to get them: this is a deeply unpopular incumbent (her approval ratings are in the 30s) in a deeply anti-incumbent climate, in a deeply red state in a deeply red cycle, and she struggled to win the majority of votes in her own party primary. A penny saved on Lincoln is a penny that could spare another Democrat.

* Mike Huckabee
tells Wendy Williams that Chelsea Clinton is "delightful" and "precious" and he's kindly surprised (joking, we think) that he hasn't yet gotten a wedding invite. Invitations have already gone out, so ....

* Tim Griffin, Republican candidate for 2nd District Congress, draws national attention today. Of the wrong kind. He's on a list of some of the "most unethical and outright corrupt" candidates seeking public office, according to Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. I'm with CREW on this, but I have to say, Where is the Democratic candidate for 2nd District Congress, Joyce Elliott? Griffin is everywhere, in person, on Twitter, on Facebook, in your e-mail inbox. Gal better get to running.

* Reuters-Ipsos poll has it Mike Beebe over Jim Keet 57-35 and that sounds a lot more likely than the 49-40 Roby Brock's poll showed. Does it matter that one is "registered voters" vs. "likely voters"? Don't know. I do think a Republican gets 40 regardless. But smart guys say that if Boozman really does get 57 percent in Arkansas in 2010, every Democrat on the ballot should have quaking boots.

OK, enough about me. What about you?

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